Buyers Bemoan Launch Costs, Availability

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MeteorWayne

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<p>From Space News...</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/080915-busmon-satellite-launchers.html</p><strong><font size="2" color="#333333">Buyers Bemoan Launcher Prices, Availability<br /><br /></font><font face="verdana" size="1" color="#003366">By Peter B. de Selding, PARIS</font></strong><br /><font face="verdana" size="1" color="#003366"><strong>Space News Correspondent</strong></font><br /><br /><font face="verdana" size="1" color="#003366"></font><font face="verdana" size="1" color="#003366"><font face="arial"><div class="Section1"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial">Launch-services suppliers found themselves on the defensive the week of Sept. 8 as satellite-fleet operators and satellite manufacturers said rocket reliability and supply was the Achilles heel of the otherwise robust commercial telecommunications satellite market.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial">Repeatedly during the World Satellite Business Week here Sept. 8-11 organized by Euroconsult, satellite operators said the availability of rockets is the principal risk to their growth prospects.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial">One operator went so far as to suggest that rocket builders build an inventory of vehicles that would be ready for launch in the event of a failure &mdash; a proposal that a commercial launch-services company official said is "beyond belief. Has he looked at our operating margins recently? Who is supposed to finance that inventory?" </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial">Satellite manufacturers joined the debate, and most of them pointed to rocket builders as the biggest problem currently facing the industry.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial">"The biggest problem for us is the launcher issue," said Evert Dudok, chief executive of Astrium Satellites of Europe. "The Ariane 5 vehicle [Astrium's sister company, Astrium Space Transportation, is the Ariane 5 prime contractor] is increasing its launch rate from seven this year to eight in 2009, but the other two [principal commercial] vehicles, Sea Launch and Proton, have had a big problem with failures."</span></p></div></font></font> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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DrRocket

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>From Space News...&nbsp;http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/080915-busmon-satellite-launchers.htmlBuyers Bemoan Launcher Prices, AvailabilityBy Peter B. de Selding, PARISSpace News CorrespondentLaunch-services suppliers found themselves on the defensive the week of Sept. 8 as satellite-fleet operators and satellite manufacturers said rocket reliability and supply was the Achilles heel of the otherwise robust commercial telecommunications satellite market.Repeatedly during the World Satellite Business Week here Sept. 8-11 organized by Euroconsult, satellite operators said the availability of rockets is the principal risk to their growth prospects.One operator went so far as to suggest that rocket builders build an inventory of vehicles that would be ready for launch in the event of a failure &mdash; a proposal that a commercial launch-services company official said is "beyond belief. Has he looked at our operating margins recently? Who is supposed to finance that inventory?" Satellite manufacturers joined the debate, and most of them pointed to rocket builders as the biggest problem currently facing the industry."The biggest problem for us is the launcher issue," said Evert Dudok, chief executive of Astrium Satellites of Europe. "The Ariane 5 vehicle [Astrium's sister company, Astrium Space Transportation, is the Ariane 5 prime contractor] is increasing its launch rate from seven this year to eight in 2009, but the other two [principal commercial] vehicles, Sea Launch and Proton, have had a big problem with failures." <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>I don't doubt that payloaders made the complaint noted.&nbsp; However that hardly means that there is a market shortage of launchers and that the launch providers can dictate price.&nbsp; My experience is that the supply of launchers exceeds the real demand and that the launch business is not particularly profitable.</p><p>Buyers always want greater availability and lower cost.&nbsp; I think you would find the same complaint from buyers of tomatoes or shoes.&nbsp; <br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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BrianSlee

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Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I don't doubt that payloaders made the complaint noted.&nbsp; However that hardly means that there is a market shortage of launchers and that the launch providers can dictate price.&nbsp; My experience is that the supply of launchers exceeds the real demand and that the launch business is not particularly profitable.Buyers always want greater availability and lower cost.&nbsp; I think you would find the same complaint from buyers of tomatoes or shoes.&nbsp; <br />Posted by DrRocket</DIV><br /><br />Interesting connotation in the term "payloaders".&nbsp; Economics 101&nbsp;- the *quantity* demand will increase&nbsp;with decreased&nbsp;price and and increased availability (supply).&nbsp; This is not a demand problem as you keep stating.&nbsp; There is overwhelming demand for access to space.&nbsp; Unfortunately the "rocketeers" have failed to deliver&nbsp;on the&nbsp;supply&nbsp;side.&nbsp; <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>"I am therefore I think" </p><p>"The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee</p> </div>
 
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Bytor_YYZ

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Interesting connotation in the term "payloaders".&nbsp; Economics 101&nbsp;- the demand will increase&nbsp;with decreased&nbsp;price and and increased availability (supply).&nbsp; This is not a demand problem as you keep stating.&nbsp; There is overwhelming demand for access to space.&nbsp; Unfortunately the "rocketeers" have failed to deliver&nbsp;on the&nbsp;supply&nbsp;side.&nbsp; <br /> Posted by BrianSlee</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Incorrect.&nbsp; There is an over supply of launch vehicles.&nbsp; There are not enough payloads for Sealaunch, Ariane, Atlas V, Delta IV, Proton, Falcon 9, etc to keep them all in business</p>
 
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DrRocket

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Interesting connotation in the term "payloaders".&nbsp; Economics 101&nbsp;- the demand will increase&nbsp;with decreased&nbsp;price and and increased availability (supply).&nbsp; This is not a demand problem as you keep stating.&nbsp; There is overwhelming demand for access to space.&nbsp; Unfortunately the "rocketeers" have failed to deliver&nbsp;on the&nbsp;supply&nbsp;side.&nbsp; <br />Posted by BrianSlee</DIV></p><p>Economics 101 -- demand is a <strong>relationship </strong>between price and quantity, a curve.&nbsp; While it is true that demand curves generally show a&nbsp;increasing quantity sold with&nbsp;decreasing price, it is not demand itself&nbsp;that increases as price decreases.&nbsp; http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp</p><p>The problem in the&nbsp; launch business is in fact largely lack of demand.&nbsp; There are few launches than in the past, in large part because satellites have become more reliable with longer lifetimes, hence less need for replacements.&nbsp; Profit margins in the lauch business are generally poor because of lack of demand and the concurrent lack of volume, combined with prices that don't carry very much profit.&nbsp; </p><p>Rocketeers have not failed on the supply side.&nbsp; If you want to buy a launch, you can most certainly get one.&nbsp; You may not like the price, but neither do the rocketeers.</p><p>There is not overwhelming demand for access to space.&nbsp; There are simply a lot of people who would like cheap access.&nbsp; They would also like cheap airline tickets.&nbsp; And cheap oil.&nbsp; And cheap chewing gum.</p><p>It is certainly true that a cheaper means of getting to orbit would find commercial success, if it is also reliable. Reliability is more important that the price, at least for the current crop of expensive and valuable cargoes.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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BrianSlee

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Economics 101 -- demand is a relationship between price and quantity, a curve.&nbsp; While it is true that demand curves generally show a&nbsp;increasing quantity sold with&nbsp;decreasing price, it is not demand itself&nbsp;that increases as price decreases.&nbsp; http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.aspThe problem in the&nbsp; launch business is in fact largely lack of demand.&nbsp; There are few launches than in the past, in large part because satellites have become more reliable with longer lifetimes, hence less need for replacements.&nbsp; Profit margins in the lauch business are generally poor because of lack of demand and the concurrent lack of volume, combined with prices that don't carry very much profit.&nbsp; Rocketeers have not failed on the supply side.&nbsp; If you want to buy a launch, you can most certainly get one.&nbsp; You may not like the price, but neither do the rocketeers.There is not overwhelming demand for access to space.&nbsp; There are simply a lot of people who would like cheap access.&nbsp; They would also like cheap airline tickets.&nbsp; And cheap oil.&nbsp; And cheap chewing gum.It is certainly true that a cheaper means of getting to orbit would find commercial success, if it is also reliable. Reliability is more important that the price, at least for the current crop of expensive and valuable cargoes. <br />Posted by DrRocket</DIV></p><p>From Wikpedia<br /><span class="mw-headline">Demand curve shifts</span></p><dl><dd><div class="noprint relarticle mainarticle"><em>Main article: Demand curve</em></div></dd></dl><div class="thumb tleft"><div class="thumbinner" style="width:202px"><img class="thumbimage" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/eb/Supply-demand-right-shift-demand.svg/200px-Supply-demand-right-shift-demand.svg.png" border="0" alt="An out-ward or right-ward shift in demand increases both equilibrium price and quantity" width="200" height="200" /> <div class="thumbcaption"><div class="magnify"><img src="http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png" alt="" width="15" height="11" /></div>An out-ward or right-ward shift in demand increases both equilibrium price and quantity</div></div></div><p>When consumers increase the quantity demanded <em>at a given price</em>, it is referred to as an <em>increase in demand</em>. Increased demand can be represented on the graph as the curve being shifted outward. At each price point, a greater quantity is demanded, as from the initial curve D1 to the new curve D2. More people wanting coffee is an example. In the diagram, this raises the equilibrium price from P1 to the higher P2. This raises the equilibrium quantity from Q1 to the higher Q2. A movement along the curve is described as a "change in the quantity demanded" to distinguish it from a "change in demand," that is, a shift of the curve. In the example above, there has been an <em>increase</em> in demand which has caused an increase in (equilibrium) quantity. The increase in demand could also come from changing tastes, incomes, product information, fashions, and so forth.</p><p>If the <em>demand decreases</em>, then the opposite happens: an inward shift of the curve. If the demand starts at D2, and <em>decreases</em> to D1, the price will decrease, and the quantity will decrease. This is an effect of demand changing. The quantity supplied at each price is the same as before the demand shift (at both Q1 and Q2). The equilibrium quantity, price and demand are different. At each point, a greater amount is demanded (when there is a shift from D1 to D2).</p><p><a id="Supply_curve_shifts" name="Supply_curve_shifts" title="Supply_curve_shifts"></a></p><h3><span class="mw-headline">Supply curve shifts</span></h3><div class="thumb tright"><div class="thumbinner" style="width:202px"><img class="thumbimage" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/7/79/Supply-demand-right-shift-supply.svg/200px-Supply-demand-right-shift-supply.svg.png" border="0" alt="An out-ward or right-ward shift in supply reduces equilibrium price but increases quantity" width="200" height="200" /> <div class="thumbcaption"><div class="magnify"><img src="http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png" alt="" width="15" height="11" /></div>An out-ward or right-ward shift in supply reduces equilibrium price but increases quantity</div></div></div><p>When the suppliers' costs change for a given output, the supply curve shifts in the same direction. For example, assume that someone invents a better way of growing wheat so that the cost of wheat that can be grown for a given quantity will decrease. Otherwise stated, producers will be willing to supply more wheat at every price and this shifts the supply curve S1 outward, to S2&mdash;an <em>increase in supply</em>. This increase in supply causes the equilibrium price to decrease from P1 to P2. The equilibrium quantity increases from Q1 to Q2 as the quantity demanded increases at the new lower prices. In a supply curve shift, the price and the quantity move in opposite directions.</p><p>If the quantity supplied <em>decreases</em> at a given price, the opposite happens. If the supply curve starts at S2, and shifts inward to S1, the equilibrium price will increase, and the quantity will decrease. This is an effect of supply changing. The quantity demanded at each price is the same as before the supply shift (at both Q1 and Q2). The equilibrium quantity, price and <em>supply</em> changed.</p><p>When there is a change in supply or demand, there are four possible movements. The demand curve can move inward or outward. The supply curve can also move inward or outward.</p>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Supply-and-demand.svg<p>The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The graph depicts an increase in demand from D<sub>1</sub> to D<sub>2</sub>, along with a consequent increase in price and quantity Q sold of the product.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>As I said when the price comes down the demand goes up.&nbsp; The problem with the current market is that we are to the far&nbsp;side of the curves at the moment.&nbsp; Bottom line, rockets alone are not the answer to this eqation, they&nbsp;are why we are and will remain to the far right on the curve as long as we are tied to them.&nbsp;&nbsp; Right now "ANY" money we spend on redeveloping pure rocket systems is waste of valuable resources that should be spent in other developmental areas.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>"I am therefore I think" </p><p>"The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee</p> </div>
 
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DrRocket

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>From WikpediaDemand curve shiftsMain article: Demand curve An out-ward or right-ward shift in demand increases both equilibrium price and quantity <strong>When consumers increase the quantity demanded <font size="2">at a given price</font>, it is referred to as an increase in demand.</strong> Increased demand can be represented on the graph as the curve being shifted outward. At each price point, a greater quantity is demanded, as from the initial curve D1 to the new curve D2. More people wanting coffee is an example. In the diagram, this raises the equilibrium price from P1 to the higher P2. This raises the equilibrium quantity from Q1 to the higher Q2. A movement along the curve is described as a "change in the quantity demanded" to distinguish it from a "change in demand," that is, a shift of the curve. In the example above, there has been an increase in demand which has caused an increase in (equilibrium) quantity. The increase in demand could also come from changing tastes, incomes, product information, fashions, and so forth.If the demand decreases, then the opposite happens: an inward shift of the curve. If the demand starts at D2, and decreases to D1, the price will decrease, and the quantity will decrease. This is an effect of demand changing. The quantity supplied at each price is the same as before the demand shift (at both Q1 and Q2). The equilibrium quantity, price and demand are different. At each point, a greater amount is demanded (when there is a shift from D1 to D2).Supply curve shifts An out-ward or right-ward shift in supply reduces equilibrium price but increases quantityWhen the suppliers' costs change for a given output, the supply curve shifts in the same direction. For example, assume that someone invents a better way of growing wheat so that the cost of wheat that can be grown for a given quantity will decrease. Otherwise stated, producers will be willing to supply more wheat at every price and this shifts the supply curve S1 outward, to S2&mdash;an increase in supply. This increase in supply causes the equilibrium price to decrease from P1 to P2. The equilibrium quantity increases from Q1 to Q2 as the quantity demanded increases at the new lower prices. In a supply curve shift, the price and the quantity move in opposite directions.If the quantity supplied decreases at a given price, the opposite happens. If the supply curve starts at S2, and shifts inward to S1, the equilibrium price will increase, and the quantity will decrease. This is an effect of supply changing. The quantity demanded at each price is the same as before the supply shift (at both Q1 and Q2). The equilibrium quantity, price and supply changed.When there is a change in supply or demand, there are four possible movements. The demand curve can move inward or outward. The supply curve can also move inward or outward.The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The graph depicts an increase in demand from D1 to D2, along with a consequent increase in price and quantity Q sold of the product.&nbsp;As I said when the price comes down the demand goes up.&nbsp; The problem with the current market is that we are to the far&nbsp;side of the curves at the moment.&nbsp; Bottom line, rockets alone are not the answer to this eqation, they&nbsp;are why we are and will remain to the far right on the curve as long as we are tied to them.&nbsp;&nbsp; Right now "ANY" money we spend on redeveloping pure rocket systems is waste of valuable resources that should be spent in other developmental areas. <br />Posted by BrianSlee</DIV></p><p>Read your own post.&nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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BrianSlee

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Read your own post.&nbsp; <br />Posted by DrRocket</DIV><br /><br />Ok I see what you are gigging me on.&nbsp; </p><p>I am talking about the point on the curve not the curve itself.&nbsp; Which would be a change in quantity demanded not an actual change in demand.</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>"I am therefore I think" </p><p>"The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee</p> </div>
 
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BrianSlee

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Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>There is not overwhelming demand for access to space.&nbsp; There are simply a lot of people who would like cheap access.&nbsp; They would also like cheap airline tickets.&nbsp; And cheap oil.&nbsp; And cheap chewing gum.It is certainly true that a cheaper means of getting to orbit would find commercial success, if it is also reliable. Reliability is more important that the price, at least for the current crop of expensive and valuable cargoes. <br />Posted by DrRocket</DIV><br /><br />&nbsp; Ok lets call it an overwhelming desire then which would equate to demand when the price comes down.&nbsp; That is just semantics.&nbsp; The fact is that we are wasting valuable resources when we invest any money into new rocket systems that don't show an order of magnitude increase in performance. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>"I am therefore I think" </p><p>"The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee</p> </div>
 
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Bytor_YYZ

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>&nbsp; The fact is that we are wasting valuable resources when we invest any money into new rocket systems that don't show an order of magnitude increase in performance. <br /> Posted by BrianSlee</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;It is impossible with chemical propulsion to get anywhere close to a magnitude </p>
 
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