Duck! 2008 AO112 may or may not hit earth TODAY!

[MichiganMan]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2008ao112.html

there is a non-zero chance of this rock hitting earth today.... thoughts?

Sure, it's a one in 10 million shot, but those are lottery-type odds....and folks do win the lottery from time to time...

 

[MeteorWayne]

The truth is, this is one of the most poorly known orbits on the risk page. The arc is almost exactly 1 day, so the truth is we have no idea at all where it is. The best description would be "lost". Using the best orbit fit ephemeris, it would be 1.5 AU away today, on the other side of the solar system

MW

 

[MichiganMan]

Indeed.

So, how long till the 2009 impactor is removed due to null result? Pretty much as long as the world remains disaster-free today, right? That will push it down the risk page into anonymity... as it stands now, though, it's just behind Apophis.

 

[MeteorWayne]

That's a good question, it should be interesting to see how long it takes for the 2009 impact to be removed. After that, each year will get lopped oneat a time as the date passes; I suspect it will be a long time until it is recovered. Also, since the orbit is so poorly known, it may be difficult to match a new discovery to this very approximate orbit.

Edit:
BTW, if you look at the possible impact dates throughout the years, note they range from June 21 to July 8th (a testament to how poorly the actual orbit is constrained) so I suspecty it won't get dropped until after July 8th...

 

[MeteorWayne]

Haha, well I was wrong. The 2009 Virtual Impactor has been removed so 2008 AO112 has plummeted down the list.

Next potential impact for this asteroid is a PS -4.62 next July 7th.

On that date, the nominal orbit has it 1.03 AU away. Closest approach is June 2 at 0.878 AU

 

[MeteorWayne]

Next object on the risk list for 2009 is 2004 BX159 with a PS -3.66 event on August 29th. This too has a short orbital arc, only 3 days, but is listed as ~ 1.2 km in diameter.

The nominal orbit has it 2.7 AU away on that date, with a CA of 1.96 AU Dec 3.