Hurricane impact on ISS?

[j05h]

What impact will delays such as Hurricane Ernesto have on the ISS construction schedule? We've discussed the tight order of flights in depth, so what are the implications of a single rollback? Does anyone know if Michoud and Stennis would be OK if a new Katrina blows through? <br /><br />Interesting note from the space.com Space News today is that Rocketplane Kistler will be using the Michoud facility for integration. <br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">What impact will delays such as Hurricane Ernesto have on the ISS construction schedule?</font>/i><br /><br />In the short-term, the next shuttle launch could be delayed until October (see quote below).<br /><br />In the longer-term, I don't think there will be much of a problem. The last time I looked at the shuttle schedule, it had built in a 12-month slippage. In other words, if everything went perfectly, the shuttles could be shutdown in 2009!<br /><br />From the LA Times<br />Storm Tosses Shuttle's Launch Date in the Air<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>A further problem is that though the current launch window extends into mid-September, Atlantis could be facing a traffic jam at the International Space Station. <br /><br />The Russians are scheduled to send another mission to the station next month.<br /><br />Only one vehicle can dock at the station at a time. <br /><br />NASA officials were planning to confer overnight with the Russians to work out a plan of action if Atlantis was further delayed.<br /><br />The next launch window opens in late October.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-atlantis28aug28,0,3135720.story?coll=la-home-nation</i>

 

[MeteorWayne]

What about the STS-116 window in (NET) December?<br />As I understand it from one of the pre launch news conferences, STS-115 must precede 116 in the construction schedule. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[arobie]

<font color="yellow">Does anyone know if Michoud and Stennis would be OK if a new Katrina blows through?</font><br /><br />As for the facilities themselves, I think they would be ok. I'm not sure how much damage Michoud sustained, but I know that Stennis was able to get back up and running quickly. The hardest losses are on the workers of Stennis and Michoud, especially Michoud because most of those people lost everything in Katrina and from experience it was hard enough to come back after that. If it were to happen again (and this sadly is a mindset of many who live down here) people might not be willing to try to rebuild after such catestrophic losses once again. It would be easier to move away, away from the work entailed in rebuilding and away from the threat of it happening <i>once</i> <b>again</b>.<br /><br />I'm not sure what Michoud's people losses were during Katrina, definitely significant and it would only be greater a second time. The same applies to Stennis.

 

[erioladastra]

"In the longer-term, I don't think there will be much of a problem. "<br /><br />It would be a HUGE impact. The biggest reason is that the Expeditions crews are now structured differently. Two of each go up on the Soyuz and the third rotates on Shuttles. For example, Tyurin and Mike L.A. go up next month. In December, Suni Williams was schedule to go up on 12A.1. Suni and Mike would do a triple stage EVA (the first!) to complete the 12A.1 activities. However, if you slip significantly then Suni slips,and if Mike goes well past 6 months we may have to bring him down. So then you could potentially end up with a different crew that has not trained as long. This is just one example. There are many more. For example software require to activate the Oxygen Generator System (OGS) is tied to 13A so that would delay OGS activation. And so on. So training, products, resources, planning and wo on would have to be redone. Ugh.

 

[erioladastra]

"This is not true, the Soyuz and Orbiter do not use the same docking port. The issue is too many people on the station at one time. "<br /><br />That and the loads on the ISS structure due to the config have not been evaluated.

 

[erioladastra]

<br />The next 3 flights have to go in order. The 4th then has to follow the 3 in order, if you want Columbus and JEM modules to be next.

 

[j05h]

> This is not true, the Soyuz and Orbiter do not use the same docking port. The issue is too many people on the station at one time. <br /><br />Is this just an elbow room issue? Or are the life-support issues unworkable? If there is any flexibility on this issue, the Partners should be open to adapting.<br /><br /> /> However due to the day light restriction for launch the window is only a day or 2 long. If we do not get off in September the most liky result is a launch in January of Feb.<br /><br />Is NASA going to realistically finish ISS? The falling-back on the schedule, even with a buffer, seems to indicate a dragging out of the flight schedule or another ISS downsize. Thoughts?<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[steve82]

"Does anyone know if Michoud and Stennis would be OK if a new Katrina blows through?"<br /><br />Wayne Hale said we were one pump failure away from losing the whole shuttle program at Michoud during Katrina. The satellite pics from the flood show a small island (Michoud) being kept above water by just a skeleton crew and a pump that otherwise would have pretty much wiped out ET production and a lot of very unique facilities. Why they are still talking about putting Michoud in the critical path for CEV is beyond me. <br />

 

[nyarlathotep]

"That and the loads on the ISS structure due to the config have not been evaluated."<br /><br />There's surely a very quick way that they could be evaluated. Might be the first decent science ISS has done in a while.

 

[erioladastra]

"There's surely a very quick way that they could be evaluated. Might be the first decent science ISS has done in a while. "<br /><br />There is a system on board that measures strains etc that is used for this sort of analysis. However, it is still being deployed and I am not certain how much data they have gotten in this config. But the analysis is not trivial. Plus it is like any other resource - you don't have an army of folks waiting around for a task, so if you do this you cut something else off. Maybe now it will move in priority. We will have to see.<br /><br />As to the science comment - a lot more is going on then you might realize. In fact I would say the amount of science done since Columbia has been impressive. Just recently there has been the SPHERES - right out of STAR WARS using CO2 jets to coordinate motions of a constellation of satellites and ALTEA which measures the radiation that astronauts have reported for years seeing even when their eyes are closed. Just some samples.