"If NASA needs a booster in the 100 MT class, then Shuttle-derived is probably the way to go. But if the architecture only calls for, say, 60 MT, then the story may be different. "<br /><br />Northrop Grumman argues that a 55t HLV is all that is needed and more cost effective than anything heavier.<br /><br />"CE&R Initial Concept Overview<br /><br /> 13 September 2004 <br />CE&R Intial Forum <br />Washington, D.C."<br /><br /> On page 6 of the report they say "Early trades show affordability of intermediate launchers", "130t launcher unaffordable in early development, no cost benefit over 55t class", "reliance on existing LVs unaffordabe post-2016 due to launch rates", and "55t class cheaper than reliance on current vehicles."<br /><br />Page 6 has a graph of estimated costs over time using three different options, one line using 30t launcher, one line using a 55t launcher and a third line using a 130t launcher.<br /><br />The costs for the 55t launcher are barely higher than the 30t launcher, until 2016 when the costs for the 30t launcher zoom much higher. The 130t launcher cost zooms much higher than the other launchers by 2008, the gap peaking by 2013, and finally reaches parity with the 55t launcher in 2015 after which the 130t launcher has only a slight cost advantage.