Orange Dwarf Star Set to Smash into The Solar System

[EarthlingX]

From Technology Review : arXiv blog :

Orange Dwarf Star Set to Smash into The Solar System

Friday, March 12, 2010

A new set of star velocity data indicates that Gliese 710 has an 86 percent chance of ploughing into the Solar System within the next 1.5 million years.

 

[Fallingstar1971]

Ummm, I was just in a discussion on another topic about these things, I need to ask this question.

Has the solar systems motion itself been incorporated into these calculations? 1.5 million years from now we will have moved a bit away from where we are. With the Milky Way spinning and all. Perhaps we will move out of range by then, or even just off to the side so that this star passes close, but not close enough to cause havoc.

Star

 

[MeteorWayne]

Yes, by default it is. The motion measurements are relative to the solar system.

 

[Fallingstar1971]

Ahhhhh........this could be very very bad then. However, 1.5 million years is a long time to develop some kind of deflection. system ( I hope)

Ahhhh who am I kidding. We will wipe ourselves out long before then


Star

 

[EarthlingX]

I have a couple of questions, for some of which i know where to start searching, but not for all :

How often does it happen ? What about the stars which could be close, but we haven't found yet ? Could we see some evidence of such an event ?
Is this the way Life propagates through the Universe ?
How long would it take us to take advantage of such an opportunity ?

Wiki : Gliese 710

Gliese 710 is an orange dwarf star (K7 spectral class) in the constellation Serpens Cauda, with visual magnitude 9.66 and a mass of 0.4–0.6 solar masses.

ArXiv.org : The Imperatives of Cosmic Biology

Carl H. Gibson (University of California at San Diego) N. Chandra Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University)
(Submitted on 27 Feb 2010)

Abstract: The transformation of organic molecules into the simplest self-replicating living system,a microorganism, is accomplished from a unique event or rare events that occurred early in the Universe. The subsequent dispersal on cosmic scales and evolution of life is guaranteed, being determined by well-understood processes of physics and biology. Entire galaxies and clusters of galaxies can be considered as connected biospheres, with lateral gene transfers, as initially theorized by Joseph (2000), providing for genetic mixing and Darwinian evolution on a cosmic scale.
...

 

[MeteorWayne]

A few comments.

First, lets see if the analysis holds up. The paper has been submitted, not peer reviewed or accepted.

Second, I doubt that there would be any benifit. Such an interaction would likely sterilize any planets around both stellar systems due to Oort cloud disruption.

I suspuct such a close encounter has not occurred since the formation of the solar system.

 

[3488]

That's very true Wayne.

The paper is still a peice of valid scientific research & is not scare mongering, etc. Very interesting read.

I agree, I too think there has not been a steller encounter this close since the Solar System formed. I think (my opinion only) there is evidence of a large planetary massed body passing through (temporarily renewed geological activity on the Jupiter moon Ganymede approx 1 GYA, being one example, possible mixing of asteroid types in the Asteroid Belt being another), but certainly nothing steller massed.

I hope there will be further research into this & we also learn more about Gliese 710 itself, i.e is it the centre of it's own planetary system, mass, rotation, age, etc.

Andrew Brown.

 

[EarthlingX]

From Wiki, Gliese 710 :

Specifically, it has the potential to perturb the Oort cloud enough to send a shower of comets into the inner solar system, possibly causing an impact event. However, recent dynamic models by García-Sánchez, et al. indicate that the net increase in cratering rate due to the passage of Gliese 710 will be no more than 5%.

From The Astronomical Journal :
Stellar Encounters with the Oort Cloud Based on Hipparcos Data
from abstract :

We have performed dynamical simulations that show that none of the passing stars perturb the Oort cloud sufficiently to create a substantial increase in the long-period comet flux at Earth's orbit.

5 % could be survivable, i guess ?

 

[3488]

I'm oiff out now, but will be back later. I will think about this & see what else. A 5% rise over the current cratering rate is not catastrophic, I'm sure Wayne would agree.

If Gliese 710 pases close enough to enter the Kuiper Belt, then the potential is much greater, but it seems that will not happen.

Andrew Brown.

 

[EarthlingX]

from arXiv:1003.2160v1 : Searching for Stars Closely Encountering with the Solar System

Thus, for example, the interaction of a star with the Oort comet cloud can give rise to comet showers reaching the region of the major planets (Hills 1981; Weissman 1996). The formation time scale of a comet shower is 1 Myr after the passage of a star. According to Weissman (1996), the Oort cloud is a spheroid with a semimajor axis of about 105 AU (0.5 pc, since 1 pc=206 265 AU) elongated toward the Galactic center and a semiminor axis of about 8× 104 AU. The question about close encounters of stars with the Sun within r < 2 − 5 pc was considered by Revina (1988), Matthews (1994), and Mullari and Orlov (1996) using various ground-based observations and by Garcia-Sanchez et al. (1999, 2001) based on Hipparcos (1997) data in combination with stellar radial velocity data. As a result, 156 Hipparcos stars from the solar neighborhood 50 pc in radius that either have encountered or will encounter with the Solar system within r < 5 pc in the time interval ±10 Myr are known to date (Garcia-Sanchez et al. 2001). Having analyzed these data, Garcia-Sanchez et al. (2001) estimated the frequency of close (within 1 pc) encounters of stars with the Sun to be 2.3±0.2 encounters per Myr and, after a correction for the Hipparcos incompleteness, this value increases to 11.7 ± 1.3 encounters per Myr.

Analyzing the possibility of even closer encounters is of current interest. For example, Kenyon and Bromley (2004) argue that only the passage of a star can explain the peculiarities of the orbit of the minor planet 2003 VB12 (Sedna). The various kinds of influences of such a star on Kuiper Belt objects were shown to manifest themselves at characteristic distances r < 1000 AU (0.005 pc). The Kuiper Belt proper extends from the Sun to a boundary of
50 AU.

Khm ..
from Discussion :

The differences are most noticeable for the star GL 217.1, more specifically, |
dmin| = 0.38 pc and |
tmin| = 182 thousand years. According to Garcia-Sanchez et al. (2001), who adopted the radial velocity Vr = 20.0 ± 3.7 km s−1 that differs markedly from our value (Table 2), the encounter parameters for GL 217.1 are: dmin = 1.65 ± 0.27 pc and tmin = −(1046 ± 163) thousand years.

As we see from Table 3, GL 217.1 is the most massive, M = 2M, star among our stars. Its improved encounter parameters, dmin = 1.28±0.06 pc and tmin = −(861±40) thousand years, make it attractive for studying the close passages that could take place in the past.

From Astronomisches Rechen-Institut (ARI) - University of Heidelberg :
Star Page

Running No.: 464 CNS designation: Gl 217.1 ( = Wo 9190 ) HD: 38678 HIP: 27288 BD: -14° 1232 YPC: 1326.00

Additional Designations: ZET Lep

From SolStation :
Zeta Leporis

The Star

Zeta Leporis is a bluish white main sequence dwarf star of spectral and luminosity type A2-3 Vann. The star may have around about twice Sol's mass, more than 1.7 times its diameter, and over 15 times its luminosity. It appears to be very young, probably around 100 million years old but could be anywhere between 50 and 500 million years old. At least one past spectroscopic analysis suggested that the star might have a binary companion. Useful catalogue numbers and designations for the star include: Zet Lep, 14 Lep, HR 1998*, Gl 217.1, Hip 27288, HD 38678, BD-14 1232, SAO 150801, FK5 219, and Wo 9190.

Is this another, a little bigger star, coming on a visit earlier ?

edit. link and star
edit2. Another link to the GL 217.1
edit3. not really, don't think so.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Something doesn't add up here. If a comet shower comes 1 Myr after a close pass, and there are 11 per Myr, then we should have constant comet showers. That's not really what we see in the historical record.

 

[EarthlingX]

If that is within 1 pc, than it might not have so much influence ?

 

[EarthlingX]

Discovery News about it :
Star Predicted to Blast Through the Solar System

By Ian O'Neill | Sat Mar 13, 2010 02:40 AM ET

In 1.5 million years time, the solar system could be in for a rough ride.

An orange dwarf star named Gliese 710 is powering in our direction and an astronomer has calculated an 86 percent chance of the interstellar interloper smashing through the Oort Cloud, located in the outermost reaches of our solar system.

 

[thnkrx]

According to Weissman (1996), the Oort cloud is a spheroid with a semimajor axis of about 105 AU (0.5 pc, since 1 pc=206 265 AU) elongated toward the Galactic center and a semiminor axis of about 8× 104 AU.

Ok...something about this statement does not compute here. If 'pc' means 'parsec', then the stated distances are *way* off. A parsec is 3.26 lightyears, and there are 63,000 au's to a light year. Even if he is talking 0.05 parsecs, the numbers still don't quite fit.

 

[Solifugae]

Someone raises the issue in the original link that if Gliese 710 enters Sol's Oort cloud, then won't the sun enter its?

Just calculating that Gliese 710 will create a 5% increase in cometary risk, isn't enough, because the orange dwarf itself may have its own planet and expansive cloud of material that will catastrophically mix with our own. Could a Jupiter orbiting G-710 be flung off into the inner solar system areas or possibly disturb the orbits of our giant planets?

Of course, if it doesn't disturb things as much as paranoia may suggest, then perhaps the benefit could be a new closer star that millions of years more advanced technology could get us to.

 

[3488]

Something doesn't add up here. If a comet shower comes 1 Myr after a close pass, and there are 11 per Myr, then we should have constant comet showers. That's not really what we see in the historical record.

One possibility Wayne is that the Oort Cloud does not exist.

Andrew Brown.

 

[silylene]

Well, the skies then might be very beautiful, with many new virgin comets incoming!

 

[bushwhacker]

INCOMING!!!!! Duck :lol:

 

[emperor_of_localgroup]

from arXiv:1003.2160v1 : Searching for Stars Closely Encountering with the Solar System

Is this thread based on findings of this paper? I'm not sure if there are more papers.
If so, the time line, 1.5 million years, seems to be incorrect.
The paper neglected the gravitational interactions between the sun and the dwarf.
If this interaction is taken into account, shouldn't the approaching speed of both the sun and the dwarf be faster as they get closer and cut our waiting time less than 1.5 million years?

 

[neilsox]

Smash may be a serious exaggeration. A possible explanation is that the 11 close (5 light years?) passages cause the normal number of comets that pass though the inner solar system. One slightly more massive than the average will produce 5% more comet passages. Now missing our sun by five or ten AU from our sun, might be smash into. Neil

 

[EarthlingX]

from arXiv:1003.2160v1 : Searching for Stars Closely Encountering with the Solar System

Is this thread based on findings of this paper? I'm not sure if there are more papers.
If so, the time line, 1.5 million years, seems to be incorrect.
The paper neglected the gravitational interactions between the sun and the dwarf.
If this interaction is taken into account, shouldn't the approaching speed of both the sun and the dwarf be faster as they get closer and cut our waiting time less than 1.5 million years?

There are more papers, and calculations are the same, as in already published papers, just data is new :

Wiki: Gliese 710

If you read those papers, you can see detailed information about how calculations were done.

From http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.2160 :

Journal reference: Astronomy Letters, 2010 Vol. 36, No. 3

probably means, it's been accepted and published.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Yes EX it would seem to indicate that. It's actually a translation of a Russian journal, which I don't know much about.

The link you provided in your last post is the same as the ones earlier; unfortunately it's only an abstract.

The Astronomy Letters webpage only has content through Volume 2 (February) so we'll have to wait a few days for the full article to be released.

From Wiki:
"Astronomy Letters is scientific journal, specializing on translation from the Soviet (Russian) journal (Pis'ma v Astronomicheskii Zhurnal)

The journal was founded in 1975."

 

[EarthlingX]

I downloaded the pdf from the link in top right, that's where quotes come from, if this is what you say ?

 

[MeteorWayne]

I downloaded the pdf from the link in top right, that's where quotes come from, if this is what you say ?

Thanx, EarthlingX Usually those links don't work for a lot of ArXiv article. I'll read it now.

 

[EarthlingX]

I downloaded the pdf from the link in top right, that's where quotes come from, if this is what you say ?

Thanx, EarthlingX Usually those links don't work for a lot of ArXiv article. I'll read it now.

No prob MW, glad to help