Spy satellite to make uncontrolled re-entry.

[jello]

It may not be as toxic as they are saying, but surely no-one wants it landing on their house. Surely that is the main point of shooting it down rather than letting it randomly fall through the atmosphere with 50 percent of its mass getting to the ground.<br /><br />Presumably all the smaller parts of the broken up satellite will burn up on re-entry.<br /><br />It occurs to me though that if the missile misses....does it just keep heading into outer space? Will the first contact an alien race has with us be a huge missile landing on their planet? Its a thought....

 

[docm]

Congressional and media opponents have long complained that the tests SM3 so far were not under "real world" conditions. This use of the SM3 to kill an inbound, if successful, could be used to counter those claims. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[bobblebob]

What time do they launch the missile? And will any TV station cover the launching? <br /><br />Also do they actually know what went wrong with it in the first place?

 

[vulture2]

>>Presumably all the smaller parts of the broken up satellite will burn up on re-entry. <br /><br />Small objects from space often hit the ground; it depends on the density and melting point of each piece. The satellite will not be vaporized by the warhead. With a larger number of pieces, there will simply be more smaller impacts over a larger area. You may remember that in the first Gulf war, quite a number of people were killed by fragments of falling Iraqi Scud missiles _after_ they were intercepted and blown apart by SAM-D Patriot interceptor missiles. Of course in this case the chance of someone actually getting hit is very low whether or not the satelite is blown apart (most of a polar orbit is over ocean or uninhabited land), but there's no evidence that the risk is lower for a larger number of smaller fragments. In any case that's not the claimed motive for the interception.<br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

They won't say (for obvious reasons). I strongly doubt it will be covered, for classified reasons.<br /><br />Nope other then it arrived in orbit DOA, or just went brain dead shortly after. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Just some advice, for those trying to spot the satellite, the predictions on Heavens-Above are quite stale; epoch Feb 11. That's 5 days ago, during which time the satellite has had it's orbit lowered by at least 5 km.<br /><br />So the times and positions will be incorrect.<br /><br />Since the lower orbit is shorter, the time would be advanced, and since it would be slightly lower, the horizon angle <i> should </i> be lower as well, but everything is a guess as of now.<br /><br />I'll check around to see if I can find more recent predictions elsewhere.<br /><br />I'd suggest if you are going to look, go at least 15 minutes before and after the H-A predicted time and record anything you see for back analysis.<br /><br />If there is an update, I'll post back here to note it.<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[docm]

<font color="yellow">What time do they launch the missile? And will any TV station cover the launching? </font><br /><br />Nothing has been released other than it'll happen after Atlantis lands on Wednesday.<br /><br />IIRC the problem was that they lost communications and the solar panels didn't deploy correctly. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

I'm talking about the times pre shootdown, during the next 3 days. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Heavens-Above has updated predictions with today's orbit.<br /><br />I did not spot it last night, based on the Epoch Feb 11 orbit. <br /><br /> Current orbit is 249x260 km<br />That is 134x140 Nautical miles.<br />The pentagon stated they'd like to attempt the shootdown at 130 nm.<br /><br />Feb 11 orbit was 251x263 km or 141x142 nm<br /><br />It's going to be close to get the Orbiter back on the ground before it gets too low. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[comga]

Thanks for the notice, Meteor Wayne. There are now three passes listed for the Denver area with the brightest tomorrow at 5:49 PM. Should be even better for anyone out on the Great Plains. ClearSkyClock has a prediction of little cloud cover, but it might not be dark enough. If I had time it might be possible to calculate how much earlier and higher in the sky the later pass will be due to the orbit decay. <br /><br />Note that satid=29651

 

[MeteorWayne]

Heavens Above has updated with a more current orbit.<br /><br />It's 251x257 km (136x139 nm) at epoch 2/15 0047 UT.<br /><br />So check back for latest predictions. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[docm]

Shotdown is scheduled for Thursday;<br /><br />http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/space/02/18/satellite.intercept/index.html <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Man, I just hope it's not going to be a heavy overcast of rain clouds for the next few days like it has been recently....<br />I <i>really</i> want to see this satellite.<img src="/images/icons/tongue.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[baktothemoon]

Trying to take some pics of it through a telescope?

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Thank Scaramouche, it's clear!!*happy dance*<br /><br />Nope, I don't even own a telescope. Just a pair of 4x30 binocs.<img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[comga]

MeteorWayne: "So check back for latest predictions."<br /><br />Did but to no avail. Too much light on the earlier pass. Too many clouds on the later pass, and I was watching several minutes early. Bummer

 

[rybanis]

Looking for this spysat is teaching me (finally) to work out UTC and converting it to my own time.<br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[docm]

The following has been sent to USAF units in the area of the shoot-down (Maui, Hawaii)<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>A Notice to Airmen has been issued closing a zone near Maui for air traffic on the morning of Feb. 21 from 2:30 to 5:00 UTC - and the to-be-hit satellite USA 193 is crossing that very zone around 3:30 UTC. Furthermore it has been noted that this is during totality of the total lunar eclipse that night which may aid the optical tracking of faint fragments.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>Further;<br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said there's nothing the military can do to make the outcome worse. "If we miss, nothing changes. If we shoot and barely touch it, the satellite is just barely in orbit" and would still burn up somewhat in the atmosphere, Griffin said. "If we shoot and get a direct hit, that's a clean kill and we're in good shape," he added.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[billslugg]

Hey, I have a great idea. Let's tell the Chinese and Russians that we will make the Moon disappear unless we get to shoot our satellite down. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Hopefully, Uplink will still be running during the lunar eclipse and shootdown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

It should be. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> And then if anybody takes pics, they can post them to the new forums after the downtime. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[bdewoody]

Just gotta luv Fox news channel. They are reporting that this action will cost the taxpayers $40-60 million. Duh the money has already been spent. Those guys on the ship are going to get paid whether they fire the missle or not. On the other hand if they do nothing and that thing falls in a populated area what will the aftermath of that cost? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em><font size="2">Bob DeWoody</font></em> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Since the realistic odds are 50/50 that they will hit it, and the odds are 65% it will land over open water, it's worth the "training exercise" I guess. <br /><br />Edit:<br />Of course, even if they do hit it, they will only be bringing it down sooner in smaller pieces. There's not much expectation that the debris won't make several more orbits, meaning anything can land anywhere. Where the pieces land is still driven by the 2/3 water surface of the earth <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

BTW Heaven's Above is using an orbit calculated at 1247 UT yesterday.<br /><br />We now have anear overhead pass over NJ and NY between 6:13 and 6:18 PM tonight.<br /><br />WCBS AM should be speaking about it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[dougbaker]

Denver, I am in Fort Collins, just to the North. <br />Thanks for the info. I will look it up if I have time.<br />