Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century

[centsworth_II]

<font color="#333399"><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Seriously.&nbsp; If you are going to form nonsense theories, at least do it coherently like most other people.<br /> Posted by UFmbutler</DIV></font><br />...and then post it in "Unexplained".<img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-smile.gif" border="0" alt="Smile" title="Smile" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p>While there is one medium sized active area in the nothern hemisphere, and two smaller ones in the southern hemisphere, all of them seem to be disipating rather than growing in intensity in the iron line images.&nbsp; That would suggest to me that we might have another slow month in store as it relates to sunspot activity.</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>While there is one medium sized active area in the nothern hemisphere, and two smaller ones in the southern hemisphere, all of them seem to be disipating rather than growing in intensity in the iron line images.&nbsp; That would suggest to me that we might have another slow month in store as it relates to sunspot activity.&nbsp; <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />Just to be clear, which do you consider to be the "Iron Line" images?</p><p>Which Iron Line is it?</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Just to be clear, which do you consider to be the "Iron Line" images?&nbsp; Which Iron Line is it? <br /> Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>I'm specifically talking about the 171A, 195A and 284A SOHO and STEREO images. &nbsp; The 195A images are typically taken at a high cadence, at least on SOHO, so I tend to look primarily out the 195A images.&nbsp;&nbsp; In these wavelenghts there is really only one "active" region that is capable of generating sunspot activity and it seems to be slowly disipating rather than growing in intensity.&nbsp;&nbsp; Two other relatively small regions formed in the southern hemisphere, but they've already started to fade out.&nbsp; It's pretty darn quiet at the higher energy wavelengths. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I'm specifically talking about the 171A, 195A and 284A SOHO and STEREO images. &nbsp; The 195A images are typically taken at a high cadence, at least on SOHO, so I tend to look primarily out the 195A images.&nbsp;&nbsp; In these wavelenghts there is really only one "active" region that is capable of generating sunspot activity and it seems to be slowly disipating rather than growing in intensity.&nbsp;&nbsp; Two other relatively small regions formed in the southern hemisphere, but they've already started to fade out.&nbsp; It's pretty darn quiet at the higher energy wavelengths. <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />So which Iron lines are visible in each of these images? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>So which Iron lines are visible in each of these images? <br /> Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>That depends on the wavelength.&nbsp; The most prominant lines come from Fe IX,X, Fe XII, and Fe XV. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>That depends on the wavelength.&nbsp; The most prominant lines come from Fe IX,X, Fe XII, and Fe XV. <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />And what are the wavelngths of those lines?</p><p>What other elements also have emission lines within the bandwidths of the SOHO images?</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>And what are the wavelngths of those lines?What other elements also have emission lines within the bandwidths of the SOHO images? <br /> Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>http://physics.memphis.edu/SOLAR/instruments.htm</p><p>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'> </p><ul><li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> Fe IX/X, 171 &Aring; </font> </li><li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> Fe XII, 195 &Aring; </font> </li><li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> Fe XV, 284 &Aring; </font> </li><li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> He II, 304 &Aring; </DIV></font> </li></ul><p>All of these filters are sensitive to emissions from other elements as well.&nbsp; </p><p>http://trace.lmsal.com/Science/ScientificResults/Publications/phillips_tr_resp_apj.pdf</p><p>Calcium, Oxygen and Nickel emissions can also be observed in these various wavelengths.&nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><strong><font size="5">Woohoo! A single&nbsp;small sunspot has reappeared !</font></strong></p><p><strong><em><font size="4">Recent record of a 2 month gap without a sunspot</font></em></strong>&nbsp; (in 1642 there was a 142 month sunspot-less gap).</p><p>NASA solar physicist David Hathaway told Discovery News. "But the appearance of this spot might very well herald that we have passed through solar minimum."&nbsp; http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/09/26/sun-spot-solar.html</p><div><img src="http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/09/26/gallery/sunspot-540x540.jpg" border="0" alt="Hello, Spot" width="540" height="540" /></div><div class="smallText">AP Photo/NASA/ESA |</div><div id="articleText"><strong>Hello, Spot</strong><br />This image provided by NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) shows a new sunspot, upper right, which after many weeks of a blank sun with no sunspots and very few sunspots this entire year, emerged Sept. 23, 2008. This new spot has both the magnetic orientation and the high-latitude position of a sunspot belonging to the new solar cycle, Cycle 24. </div> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Woohoo! A single&nbsp;small sunspot has reappeared !</p><p>........Posted by silylene</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>More on this subject, from the NYT science section: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/science/space/03sun.html?partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss</p><p><strong><font size="5" color="#0000ff">Sunspots Are Fewest Since 1954, but Significance Is Unclear</font></strong> </p><p>"............</p><p><font color="#0000ff">In another sign of solar quiescence, scientists reported last month that the solar wind, a rush of charged particles continually spewed from the Sun at a million miles an hour, had diminished to its lowest level in 50 years.</font></p><p><font color="#0000ff">Scientists are not sure why this minimum has been especially minimal, and the episode is even playing into the </font><font color="#0000ff">global warming</font><font color="#0000ff"> debate. Some wonder if this could be the start of an extended period of solar indolence that would more than offset the warming effect of human-made carbon dioxide emissions. From the middle of the 17th century to the early 18th, a period known as the Maunder Minimum, sunspots were extremely rare, and the reduced activity coincided with lower temperatures in what is known as the Little Ice Age. </font></p><p><font color="#0000ff">Compared to the Maunder Minimum, the current pace of sunspots &ldquo;makes it look like we&rsquo;re having a feast, not a famine,&rdquo; Dr. Hathaway said</font>............."<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>&nbsp;More on this subject, from the NYT science section: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/science/space/03sun.html?partner=rssyahoo&emc=rssSunspots Are Fewest Since 1954, but Significance Is Unclear "............In another sign of solar quiescence, scientists reported last month that the solar wind, a rush of charged particles continually spewed from the Sun at a million miles an hour, had diminished to its lowest level in 50 years.Scientists are not sure why this minimum has been especially minimal, and the episode is even playing into the global warming debate. Some wonder if this could be the start of an extended period of solar indolence that would more than offset the warming effect of human-made carbon dioxide emissions. From the middle of the 17th century to the early 18th, a period known as the Maunder Minimum, sunspots were extremely rare, and the reduced activity coincided with lower temperatures in what is known as the Little Ice Age. Compared to the Maunder Minimum, the current pace of sunspots &ldquo;makes it look like we&rsquo;re having a feast, not a famine,&rdquo; Dr. Hathaway said............." <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />I believe I made that point a number of posts ago. [edit, sorry it was in another thread. I will find it and copy it here- MW] The Maunder minimum had to do with the lower number of sunspots at the cyclical peaks. The numbers are so low at minima, it has no statistical value. If the next peak is way below average, then we might SUSPECT that something is going on. Let's see what happens over the next 6 years before rushing to judgement.</p><p>MW</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Aaupaaq]

I think that sunspotless sun makes more fog.&nbsp; Evaporation and condensation, thus more hydrographical activities. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> We always walked on water, like skating! </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I think that sunspotless sun makes more fog.&nbsp; Evaporation and condensation, thus more hydrographical activities. <br />Posted by Aaupaaq</DIV><br /><br />Please provide a physical mechanism that can create that. Or stop hijacking the thread.</p><p>Hint...There is one wild possibility, but it is up to you to provide it.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>If the next peak is way below average, then we might SUSPECT that something is going on. Let's see what happens over the next 6 years before rushing to judgement.MW <br /> Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>I agree by the way.&nbsp; It seem like it's a bit early to say what the next maximum will be like.&nbsp; The slow down of the solar wind is likely to track with the decrease in activity we see in the 195A wavelengths, and these are obviously now at a minimum.&nbsp; There is by the way a small area developing in the lower hemisphere today that could (if it grows) result in a sunspot.&nbsp;</p><p>It seems to me that a "wait and see' approach is in order here.&nbsp; The next maximum isn't due for awhile yet. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[skyfolly]

I wonder such short period of spotless time is significant for Sun's Billion Year history.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I wonder such short period of spotless time is significant for Sun's Billion Year history. <br />Posted by skyfolly</DIV><br /><br />Not really, it's probably occurred many times, but there were no humans around to witness it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p>Finally, an easily visible sunspot is on the face of the sun.</p><p><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/13/11/ede76f44-42fc-4771-aba4-4686db43fa60.Medium.jpg" alt="" /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[neuvik]

<p>I havn't watched that video yet, on my list.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Out of curiosity, does a session of low sun spot activity mean that the next will be of violent activity?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Hope that makes sense...thanks.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000">I don't think I'm alone when I say, "I hope more planets fall under the ruthless domination of Earth!"</font></strong></p><p><font color="#0000ff">SDC Boards: Power by PLuck - Ph**king Luck</font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I havn't watched that video yet, on my list.&nbsp;&nbsp;Out of curiosity, does a session of low sun spot activity mean that the next will be of violent activity?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Hope that makes sense...thanks. <br />Posted by neuvik</DIV><br /><br />We certainly don't know the answer to that yet. Suspots have only been monitored in detail for about&nbsp;250 years, and detailed measurements of the sun's magnetic field for a few decades...</p><p>Sunspot numbers since 1750:</p><p><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/0/15/80535ee3-814f-4693-9f42-45e564b1ecd3.Medium.png" alt="" /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p>Here's a longer record showing the Maunder Minimum. Note that the real difference is not at the cycle minima, but rather that the peaks dissapeared for a number of cycles. It's also important to point out that there were far fewer observations made during that time than during the last 2 centuries.</p><p><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/1/6/9166cdbb-1efd-45f9-b6c4-391bc6273352.Medium.gif" alt="" /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[neuvik]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>We certainly don't know the answer to that yet. Suspots have only been monitored in detail for about&nbsp;250 years, and detailed measurements of the sun's magnetic field for a few decades...Sunspot numbers since 1750: <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />Thanks MeteorWayne.&nbsp;&nbsp; I've been trying to do some quick reading just out of curiosity.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I didn't realize its a fairly new science.&nbsp;&nbsp;I suppose I'll hold off with my questions untill that video this friday heh.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>But one quick question on those graphs; Those go surprisingly far back, I was trying to understand the data that the scientists collected other than sun spot occurrences.&nbsp;&nbsp; Looks like they just utilized what technology back then allowed, so basic spectroscopy.&nbsp;&nbsp; But that Fraunhofer scale they used, would that not be flawed because some spectrums the sun produces can't pass through the atmosphere?&nbsp; Well its really just two spectrums,&nbsp;A extreme red, and B red.&nbsp; </p><p>I just wanted to know if&nbsp;the old&nbsp;data&nbsp;still had some use heh.&nbsp; Thanks.&nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000">I don't think I'm alone when I say, "I hope more planets fall under the ruthless domination of Earth!"</font></strong></p><p><font color="#0000ff">SDC Boards: Power by PLuck - Ph**king Luck</font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

From spaceweather.com:

http://www.spaceweather.com/


DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Where have all the sunspots gone? As of yesterday, March 21st, the sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century. A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned. We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum.

 

[michaelmozina]

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... 95_512.mpg

Well, it looks like there is an active region that is about to come over the horizon for SOHO this week. We might see some sunspot activity out of this one finally. It's been pretty darn quiet, but there is at least one fairly active region now visible in the STEREO-Behind images.

 

[silylene]

In addition to the active region coming around, we have our first "proto-sunspot" in months!!

Woohoo!

A "proto-sunspot" is struggling to emerge at the circled location. If it coelesces, its high latitude would make it a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: SOHO/MDI http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[michaelmozina]

In addition to the active region coming around, we have our first "proto-sunspot" in months!!

Woohoo!

A "proto-sunspot" is struggling to emerge at the circled location. If it coelesces, its high latitude would make it a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: SOHO/MDI http://www.spaceweather.com/

Hey cool! There is even an active area in the lower hemisphere that is now visible in the STEREO behind images. It's about time we get some activity.

From a "sunspot prediction" perspective, it seems to me that there is a correlation between the "possibility of" the formation of a sunspot and the intense activity we observe in 195A. While the active regions seen in 195A do not *always* result in the formation of a sunspot, these two things are seemingly very much related observations. It seems to me that the predicted "size" and "duration" of any particular sunspot would be related to the amount of activity observed in 195A and the physical size and intensity of that activity in some way. Does anyone know of some good papers on this topic?