What do you make of this announcement by Bigelow?

[docm]

In normal times I'd agree, but these aren't normal times for the US human spaceflight business. Maybe what's needed is a keiretsu of this kind. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

IIRC this came out in December & somebody posted a link to it already. <br /> I am re-posting the link because it supports (sort of) my contention that ULA has completed plans & may have some existing hardware for an LEO taxi.<br /><br /> Atlas V for Commercial Passenger Transportation <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[gunsandrockets]

Thanx for that document!<br /><br />That's one I haven't seen yet! I'm just now diving in...

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Okay, we've got 6 days to before the announcement. Does anybody want to hazard a guess as to what it is? <br /> I'm going to stick by my earlier assessment that ULA, has completed the plans for an LEO taxi that will be used to transport crew & cargo to & from the first Bigelow complex. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[nwade]

The Atlas document is very interesting. It is certainly structured a lot like a "pitch" at seeing if there's interest in building it for customers. <br /><br />I find it notable, however, that despite all of the talk of "black zones" and other safety issues in the document that they really don't talk at all about re-entry profile, heat-shield materials, or the result of an on-pad abort (which they mention instead of emergency egress). <br /><br />I find those to be notable exceptions, especially in a technical paper. However, for a "sales pitch" it wouldn't be surprising... After all, when you buy a car they may mention all the airbags that you can get, but rarely will the dealer stop to tell you how much head trauma you're likely to receive, or how different types of accidents will affect the airbag deployment. ;-)<br /><br />Can't wait for the Bigelow announcement! I have a co-worker who knows some people related to the company, and he was very pessimistic about the quality of people they employ... The continuing success of Genesis 1 was a nice surprise and I hope it continues for 'em!<br /><br />--Noel<br />

 

[spacester]

<font color="yellow">Does anybody want to hazard a guess as to what it is? </font><br /><br />I really shouldn't do this because I haven't really done all the homework I should, but it is becoming apparent that no one else is going to stick their neck out.<br /><br />1. ULA will be building an Atlas / Capsule combo to provide human transport to and from Bigelow-manufactured facilities. They will try to close the gap, in parallel with COTS, and using NASA's same acceptance criteria as for COTS.<br /><br />2. Bigelow and NASA and possibly ULA and/or other parties which we possibly have never even heard of are going to create a space station in the 2012-2015 time frame which will consist of at least two, possibly as many as four, BA-330 modules. This partnership agreement will very carefully position itself as a "true microgravity environment" to avoid upstaging ISS as much as possible, and will take the form of a separately chartered corporation which will rent out space to private customers. NASA's role will be essentially that of providing its blessing without spending many taxpayer dollars (a Space Act Agreement). The primary draw of this facility is that it won't have humans banging into the walls and upsetting experiments and processes (protein crystal, metallurgical, other stuff) for weeks or months at a time. NASA will also provide expertise for remotely conducting these experiments and processes. I say 'processes' because there are likely plans to actually produce marketable products, not just experiment forever. There will be academic involvement also. Mission Specialist astronauts may be shifted to this new organization. At the same time, a major attraction will be the ability for corporations to do R&D without their competitors being privy to all the details.<br /><br />3. Mr. Bigelow is going to put some meat on the bones of ESAS in terms of providing habitat facilities for the Lunar surface. He will do the site prep and habitat emplacement, NASA wi <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[dreada5]

As always, sounds good spacester<br /><br />But has anyone considered that it may be nothing <b>as</b> exciting as what we're thinking?! Before you shoot me down, I'm just saying. <img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" />

 

[docm]

If even half of that is in the announcement there will indeed be a round of coffee spitting. <br /><br />As for LM's proposed capsule IIRC they've stated they would use their existing aeroshell tech and TPS. The most current version of that is a 4.5 meter (15 foot) heat shield for the Mars Science Lab, which is made out of cork-silicone Super Lightweight Ablator (SLA).<br /><br />SLA source.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[spacester]

Thanks, dreada5. If nothing else, it's fun to think about for a few days, eh?<br /><br />docm: Well, it's a stretch, that's for sure. But I don't drink coffee, and spitting beer is not an option, so maybe that's a factor here. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <br /><br />Thanks for the link, as always! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[docm]

Finally!! Someone else who doesn't drink coffee!!!!<br /><br />Nods on the beer; every drop is a precious thing, isn't it? <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[radarredux]

<i><font color="yellow"> really shouldn't do this because I haven't really done all the homework ...</font>/i><br /><br />I like it all !!<br /><br />I think (1) is the most likely because Bigelow's entire business model is dead without a reliable transportation system to/from his habitats. Soyuz is possible (maybe probable), but I am sure he wants at least one US business partner.<br /><br />(2) is possible, because it will give Bigelow the chance to announce his first "sale" for a habitat or his first "customer/renter" for one he will own; the first sale/customer is always a major milestone for any company -- like losing your virginity, you only get to do it once.</i>

 

[nwade]

Here's a "way out there" stab at the big announcement:<br /><br />Bigelow announces that they've inked a deal with the fledgling (but aggressive) Chinese space program, and will be providing orbital modules for them to develop docking capability and on-orbit habitation for extended stays in space (meaning a few days to a few weeks at a time, instead of quick up-and-back trips in capsules). There will be an option for providing materials and support to the Chinese for their plans of a Lunar landing/base.<br /><br />Sure there are export controls and legal limitations when dealing with China - but they ARE an 800-pound gorilla in terms of a growing economy and a thirst for national pride. That same pride might make them hesitant to accept the solutions of outsiders; but as a set of "stepping stones" to leverage them up into LEO and off to the Moon using their own technologies, its as plausible as anything else!! <br /><br />How's that for a left-field prediction?? <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />--Noel<br />

 

[jimfromnsf]

The capsule work is not ULA forte. That was the LM spacecraft group vs Atlas. ULA has only got Atlas people. I don't think LM is going to jepordized the CEV work it got.

 

[jimfromnsf]

"1. As always, sounds good spacester<br /><br />2. But has anyone considered that it may be nothing as exciting as what we're thinking?! Before you shoot me down, I'm just saying."<br /><br />1. I want some of what he is smoking<br />2. You are the closest to being correct. It probably will be something less than spacester's #1