While Bigelow is building Space Stations...

[docm]

<font color="yellow">No hardware exists</font><br /><br />And never will with the prevailing attitude that "if it doesn't exist so let's not go there". <br /><br />That's the problem with space R&D these days; they've largely lost the idea of just building something, giving it a <b><i>real</i></b> go then working out the problems. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[josh_simonson]

Once the fuel needed to retrieve and replace a GEO satelite is significantly cheaper than the satelite itself, major servicing missions like that will make sense. <br /><br />Solar electric tugs with high ISP are very slow, most satelite operators would object to a repair mission that takes 4 years to complete - the cost of the coverage loss would be greater than the cost of replacing the satelite promptly.

 

[j05h]

<i>> The idea has been around for decades. No hardware exists</i><br /><br />Sure space tugs exist: the Russian FGB and Progress service module. Plus a host of test craft similar to the Orbital Express that launched recently. Fregat and American restartable upper stages are an avionics upgrade away from being tugs, too. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

<font color="yellow"> Point to point suborbital flights (I assume you mean transcontinental suborbital flights as anything else would not make much sense) is nearly as hard as an orbital flight from the energy you require to do that. SS2 will have practically no cross-range capability and will land where it started from. It would need about 20 times the energy to do a sustained transcontinental suborbital flight. </font><br /><br />Burt Rutan & Sir Richard aren't the only ones that are considering point to point transport.<br /> (PistolPete, please forgive me<img src="/images/icons/blush.gif" />)<br /><br /> Marines in Spaaaaaace! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

<font color="yellow"> "A recent space tourism industry study included a poll of affluent Americans. Results of the survey found that space tourism could generate more than $1 billion per year in revenues by 2021. The study also found that suborbital flights will constitute the biggest share of this emerging market, with the potential for 15,000 passengers and $700 million in revenues per year. <br /></font><br /><br /> This study did not ask if any universities, electronics manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, foreign governments, foreign affluent people, etc, etc. The study was very narrow in scope, it is not very representative of anything other than how many rich gringos can go on a 10 day orbital jaunt.<br /> I would imagine Bob Bigelow has a bit better idea who is willing to pay to go to orbit than you or I. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

"I would imagine Bob Bigelow has a bit better idea who is willing to pay to go to orbit than you or I. "<br /><br />Unfortunately he is not telling us or anyone else what or where the market is that he is targeting. It seems to be some sort of secret market... an odd thing, considering that a market is nothing more than a number of people having an interest in someone else's products or services, which from its very nature should not be secret.<br /><br />"This study did not ask if any universities, electronics manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, foreign governments, foreign affluent people, etc, etc."<br /><br />And that was exactly my question. Which universities, pharma corporations, governmental space agencies are willing to pay 20-30 million for one person going into space, especially if they are not currently willing to pay money for the same research they would be able to do on a Bigelow space station on the ISS?<br /><br />It is not that there can't be a market for the services Bigelow wants to offer (at a very low price there might be a substantial market), I am just wondering why he is not explaining to the public what the market specifically is he is targeting - I mean, that shouldn't be a secret, should it?

 

[docm]

Many answers should come later today when Bigelow does his presentation at the National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs.<br /><br />An added plus this year is eye candy in the presence of Jolene Blalock <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />As for secrecy; Bigelow (and SpaceX) have been far more open than most NewSpace companies; Blue Origin & RpK come to mind. Benson is somewhere between. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

"Many answers should come later today when Bigelow does his presentation at the National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs. "<br /><br />Hopefully.<br /><br />"As for secrecy; Bigelow (and SpaceX) have been far more open than most NewSpace companies; Blue Origin & RpK come to mind. Benson is somewhere between."<br /><br />Ok, I think I expressed myself not very clearly. I said there is not point to keep it a secret what your market is, because from its very nature a market is public and should be equally accessible to anyone in a free market economy. Bigelow thus should be specifically able to say where the billions of USD, that he will need to be profitable, will come from.

 

[docm]

<font color="yellow">Bigelow thus should be specifically able to say where the billions of USD, that he will need to be profitable, will come from.</font><br /><br />That's what presenting a business plan at the Symposium is all about. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>the presence of Jolene Blalock<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />oh for chrissakes post an image !! oh, nevermind<br />http://games-all.com/stars-photo/jolene-blalock.jpg<br />

 

[thereiwas]

Actually, Bigelow does not appear on the agenda until Thursday, when he is on this panel:<br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><br /><b>Why People Who Could Invest in Anything are Investing in Space</b><br /><br />With a Special Introduction by XM Radio Co-Founder and Space Foundation Board Member Mr. Lon C. Levin<br /><br /><b>Moderator</b><br /><br />Mr. Hoyt Davidson, Chief Executive Officer, Partner, & Founder, Near Earth LLC<br /><br /><b>Panelists</b><br /><br />Mr. Robert T. Bigelow, President & Founder, Bigelow Aerospace<br /><br />Mr. Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer & Chief Technology Officer, Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, <br />Board Member, Space Foundation<br /><br />Mr. Alex Tai, Vice President, Operations, Virgin Galactic <br /><p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> <br /><br />It may be that BA will release their announcement today independently from Bigelow's appearance on that panel.

 

[rocketman5000]

That would be my guess, otherwise the press wouldn't have much time to mull over it and really dig down for questions

 

[spacy600]

"As for secrecy; Bigelow (and SpaceX) have been far more open than most NewSpace companies; Blue Origin & RpK come to mind. Benson is somewhere between." <br /><br />I have a hard time betting against Billionires, and Millionaires.<br />All of them have hired qualified people. They seem to be making progress.<br />I hope it is not just a toy to them.

 

[j05h]

<i>> Bigelow thus should be specifically able to say where the billions of USD, that he will need to be profitable, will come from.</i><br /><br />He already has said where the profits will come from: he is forming a multinational Astronaut Corp. This will include astronauts from countries that have no launch capacity, space hotel guests (tourists, though he markets it without that word) and corporate researchers. <br /><br />Rumors are already flying that he will build 3 separate complexes, plus build hardware for other clients. The advantage of this is that one of his units will apparently be a free-flyer with decent microgravity, something ISS lacks.<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[docm]

<font color="yellow">Actually, Bigelow does not appear on the agenda until Thursday, when he is on this panel....</font><br /><br />Numerous media reports have stated he was rescheduled to today. We'll see. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>He already has said where the profits will come from: he is forming a multinational Astronaut Corp. This will include astronauts from countries that have no launch capacity, space hotel guests (tourists, though he markets it without that word) and corporate researchers. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />1. Actually he said he is not targeting tourists and as mentioned above at current prices (20 millions per flight) he gets about 1-4 interested wealthy people a year (look at Roskosmos, in order to get their 2 available seats a year on Soyuz covered they gave substantial rebates on the 20 millions - which by the way does not even cover the costs of the flight to the ISS - in the past...). Bigelow is going to use Soyuz, Atlas V, SpaceX etc. for transportation, therefore his prices cannot be much less if he wants to be profitable. At these prices there won't be many customers.<br /><br />2. "countries that have no launch capabilities" do not spend billions of dollars a year on human spaceflight. Even large space agencies like ESA or JAXA are very reluctant to pay anybody for trips to the ISS - they rather barther services. Currently only the Brazilians with 20 million for their first astronaut and the Koreans come to mind as examples within the last few years and the next few years concerning this income stream. Not enough to be even a noteable revenue source.<br /><br />3. "corporate researches": Again, the question is, how is it possible that right now with ISS (and in the 35 years of manned spacestations in the past) there have not been any corporations interested in research in space (due to the excessively high costs and limited things you can do on the ISS AND any Bigelow space station), why is that going to change? <br /><br />To sum up, Bigelow has only given catchphrases on where the revenues should come from, but has not given any specific examples or shown any studies that back-up his claim that there is a mark

 

[dreada5]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Numerous media reports have stated he was rescheduled to today. We'll see. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Will there be a live webcast anywhere?<br /><br />

 

[spacy600]

From SpaceHab news release:<br /><br />SPACEHAB Announces New Company Initiative<br />Tuesday April 10, 3:15 pm ET<br />Company to Focus on Space Based Manufacturing<br /><br />HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPACEHAB, Incorporated (NASDAQ:SPAB - News), a leading provider of commercial space services, today announced plans to develop a new company division that will focus on manufacturing pharmaceuticals and materials in space for distribution into the commercial marketplace.<br /><br />http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070410/20070410006152.html?.v=1

 

[radarredux]

> <font color="yellow"><i> today announced plans to develop a new company division that will focus on manufacturing pharmaceuticals and materials in space for distribution into the commercial marketplace.</i></font>/i><br /><br />and...<br /><br />"SPACEHAB plans to release more information on the selected life science products to be manufactured in space at the Space Investment Summit in New York, New York on April 16, 2007. The summit, hosted by the Space Commerce Roundtable and the Space Frontier Foundation, provides a forum for leading investors, industry representatives, entrepreneurs, and experts to present and appraise the newest and most promising space commerce investment opportunities."<br />

 

[trailrider]

I told Wilbur and I told Orville, and I told Don Douglas and I told Juan Trippe, an' I told Bob Six... it'll never get off the ground and if it does it'll never make a profit!<br /><br />As I've said before, we are in the "1920's" of the Space Age. The shame is that most of the general American public has only seen what NASA has/can (and cannot do)!<br /><br />Once these entrepreneurs get going (and SOME WILL fail), NASA can detach itself from LEO and start really concentrating on what it should be doing...EXPLORATION!<br /><br />Ad Luna! Ad Ares! Ad Astra!

 

[dreada5]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>We have yet to see the "Trailblazers", the Lindberghs, Sikorskys,<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br /><b>Burt Rutan</b><br /><br />I seriously think his (and Brian Binnie/Mike Melvill) fans would beg to disagree. I'd say he's been there, done it and got the X-Prize t-shirt! Back in 2004, SS1 catapulted us beyond the pre-Lindberg, pre-Sirkorsky era and into an era where credible equivalents of Lindberg and Sirkorsky will start to emerge.<br /><br />SS1 trailblazed a first for NewSpace. Rutan showed the public "space without NASA". (not that I have anything against NASA). <br /><br />I'll never forget how stunned I was when I first saw the onboard video of SS1 in space with the blue earth beneath and the bright sun against the blackness of space... and to know it was a totally "Joe Bloggs affair", no official government logos in sight, well that was just wowwwwwwww!! It was undoubtedly a highly extraordinary achievement! <br /><br />That day Rutan/Paul Allen's spaceshipone moved the final frontier a little closer to ordinary people. <br /><br />Branson's suborbital-Virgin Galactic, a possible proto-equivalent to Imperial Airways etc is a direct spin-off of Rutan's success! Competition will follow.<br /><br />ps. Commercial orbital manned access and spacestations are the next big challenges/contests IMO.

 

[no_way]

people have short attention spans these days, they dont remember 2004 <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[radarredux]

Back to Bigelow and tourism, The Space Review has an article on Bigelow that clearly leaves the door open for tourism. While Bigelow says, "We consider ourselves wholesalers of destinations that we build and we don’t consider ourselves as space hotel folks", he also says that one customer group is the entertainment business.<br /><br />Also, on a panel that featured Bigelow and Alex Tai, VP of Operations for Virgin Galactic, "After Bigelow suggested again that space tourism companies might be potential customers for his modules, Tai said that a hotel in space might be a great addition to the Virgin Group’s existing terrestrial resorts."<br /><br />So it seems that while Bigelow himself does not plan to operate hotels, he will lease space to a hotel organization.

 

[radarredux]

The Soyuz spacecraft may not be visiting the Bigelow habitats. From the Space Review article, it seems that one Bigelow "requirement is the ability to carry six to eight people, and cargo, at a time; one seat would be taken up by a Bigelow pilot and other seats might be needed for company crews being rotated in and out of the complexes."<br /><br />My guess is that he needs to fill more seats in order to hold the prices down.

 

[holmec]

Thanks for the links. <br /><br />That is very smart of Biglow. "Space Realestate" That leaves it open for services companies to lease the space in ....er.... space. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" />. And it seems that Biglow has the monopoly on it, so far. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>