Could VSE cancellation spell the end of "Humans Beyond LEO"?

BReif · May 8, 2007

In answer to the original poster's question: IF VSE gets cancelled, will that be the end of humans beyond LEO? I think that the answer to that question would be yes, for at least a century, if not an end to human spaceflight by the United States for half a century or more. WILL it get cancelled? I think the answer to that question is NO. There would be too much at stake in the realm of political prestige, especially with China launching humans, the Russians continuing to launch humans, and Malaysia now looking at launching humans into space. Politically, I think it would be "the devil to pay" is any administration or congress allowed the United States to lose human spaceflight capacity, regardless of political party. Will the VSE get amended or changed? The answer here is probably yes. The engineering will lead to design changes in the launch vehicle and spacecraft, as it has done with every man rated vehicle since Mercury. The stick design may well be changed in favor of something else, but eventually, Orion will fly to LEO, to ISS, as a shuttle replacement. It will be capable of taking humans beyond LEO by design. That leads to another question, how far behind Orion and its launch vehicle will come the Cargo Launch vehicle, the lunar lander, and the Trans Lunar Injection stage? The timeline and funding for those projects will detrmine, ultimately, when humans go beyond LEO again, for the first time since 1972. Metal is being bent, and real hardware is being tested on Orion. That part of the program is well underway. My concern is with the TLI stage, the Lunar Lander, and the "Ares V" cargo launcher. Without those, Orion will just be a shuttle replacement flying to and from ISS, and nothing more.

dreada5 · May 8, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />> VSE won't fail because there is nothing else for our space program. That is the point of this thread. <hr /></blockquote> Thanks RadarRedux (beat me to it)! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> Cancellation or extensive delays (of the magnitude of decades) are real possibilities. I don't think anyone familiar with NASA programs would dispute that. And "our [human] space program", as we know it now, may in time become a thing of the past in the face of dwindling taxpayer support. On the flipside, that won't necessarily mean an end to US human spaceflight... perhaps just the beginning of something much greater!

thereiwas · May 8, 2007

"Humans beyond LEO" is not the same thing as "NASA beyond LEO". VSE could be canceled outright tomorrow and the business plans of Bigelow and Musk could keep right on going. So will the plans of Russia, China, and India, whatever those might be. NASA and its reliance on the political pork funding model is not the only manned space program in the world. It isn't even the only manned space program in the USA.

dreada5 · May 8, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />There would be too much at stake in the realm of political prestige, especially with China launching humans, the Russians continuing to launch humans, and Malaysia now looking at launching humans into space.<hr /></blockquote> I think that's the big question. What would other nations (and NewSpace) do if the US decided to stay in LEO? Some say China has its own plans of lunar exploration and is not copying the US. And the Russians/Europeans would go to Luna anyways.... I have MAJOR, MAJOR doubts about that. I think China wants to show that they can catch up technologically with the US, I don't think they (as an emerging world power) are mature enough to head off into space in their own direction. They wait for the US's lead and then try and beat them to it. And as for Russia/Europe (Europe more so), look back at history - they'll constantly seek partnerships with the US because advanced, manned "Luna/Mars" space exploration is TOO expensive to do alone!! To be honest, my point above about China's behaviour may in fact be the ONLY reason the US races back to the moon! To get there before the Chinese, who are just trying to beat the US at whatever they're up to! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> A rhetorical question is, will everyone get to the moon and then ask themselves wtf are we here? <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

BReif · May 8, 2007

It is the only manned space program in the US that actually launches people into LEO. The only space agency or organization to put humans beyond LEO was NASA from 1968 to 1972. No one else has done it, and, private enterprise hasn't even gotten into LEO as yet. I stick by my statement, without VSE, it will be the end of humans (not just NASA) beyond LEO for a century. (see post above about other agencies/nations quitting manned spaceflight because US quits, very real possibility IMHO). Humans in LEO MAY take place (Russia, China, ESA, and possibly others), but I think it will be at least a decade, maybe more before private industry pulls it off (which, of course they eventually will, IF its profitable (it would be bad business to undertake a project in which you lose money in private industry)). It will take private industry a century IMHO to get beyond LEO, again IF its profitable.

no_way · May 8, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />It is the only manned space program in the US that actually launches people into LEO. <hr /></blockquote> Space Adventures would not agree with that. They are definitely in US, and getting customers from US. <blockquote>In reply to:<hr />No one else has done it, and, private enterprise hasn't even gotten into LEO as yet.<hr /></blockquote> Which is also false. There are lots of privately owned entities flying around in LEO, including a prototype of future manned habitat. And as said above, private enterprise definitely has put people to LEO as well. It seems you need to revise your statements a lot.

MeteorWayne · May 8, 2007

Incorrect. No one but nations have put people in LEO. Spacecraft yes, people no. Please show me who other than USA, Russia, and China have launched humans into LEO. I suspect you won't be able to. as you say, no_way <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

no_way · May 8, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />No one but nations have put people in LEO<hr /></blockquote> Thats a strangest statement i have seen in a long while. How exactly does a NATION move something to somewhere ? Get everone with passports of a given country behind one big wheel and crank it or what ? Seriously, if you are talking government-funded vs privately funded, then Space Adventures is a commercial entity. They did marketing, found themselves customers, paid the necessary fees and taxes, and put their customer in LEO, and presumably made some profit in the process. How's that not putting people in LEO ? Of course, they used infrastructure that belongs to a certain government agency in a certain country, but basically every commercial transportation operation uses a few bits of government-owned and -developed infrastructure in the process. EDIT: Hypothethically, if they were doing it on SpaceX Falcon and Dragon, you'd be jumping in and saying hey, they used a launch pad at KSC and engine technology in rockets that was developed with government money some time ago, so its not commercial ?

MeteorWayne · May 8, 2007

Again, which human did they put in orbit????? You do realize that LEO means Low Earth Orbit, right? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · May 8, 2007

"EDIT: Hypothethically, if they were doing it on SpaceX Falcon and Dragon, you'd be jumping in and saying hey, they used a launch pad at KSC and engine technology in rockets that was developed with government money some time ago, so its not commercial ? " No I wouldn't say that at all. The only systems (launchers and vehicles) than have launched into LEO are NASA (a civilian government agency), USSR and Russia and spinoffs (government, though becoming less so), and China (pure government) Please document the launch vehicle and spacecraft that Space Adventures used. Then we can judge where it falls along our definition scale. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

thereiwas · May 8, 2007

Don't forget Arianespace. SpaceX got pretty darn close not too long ago. They'll be doing it soon.

BReif · May 8, 2007

Space Adventures launches their tourists to ISS on Soyuz, through the Russian Space Agency, they do not do it on their own, therfore it is a National Space program (outside the US) that makes their product of orbital tourism possible. Private industry has been able to orbit spacecraft and sattelites, but not humans as yet, at least not without the Russian Federation. Once Space Adventures or any other private corporation build their own LEO capable craft, launches with their own launch infrastructure with a pilot and completes a single orbit, then we have private Earth orbital spaceflight that is independent of a government entity, but not before.

MeteorWayne · May 8, 2007

Incorrect. SpaceX got close to (and undoubtedly will soon) launch a satellite to LEO. I'm rootin' for them, and love their openness. I can't wait till their next launch. That's a whole different thing than putting a person in space!! The same applies to Arianspace. The reliability and safety issues are quite different for satellites (i.e. insurance company pays off) and human spaceflight (i.e someone could die if it fails). MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · May 8, 2007

Thanks, that is exactly my point. Now the RSA is transitioning to a non-governmental agency, but the launchers and craft were developed during the government part of the history. I look forward to the day when a true commercial company develops, tests, and launches someone to orbit from scratch. It just hasn't happened yet. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

no_way · May 9, 2007

hell, practically everything in aerospace was developed with or by government at some point in history. Your appears: no humans have been launched to LEO on entirely private operation, from private spaceports on privately funded and developed rockets, by private customers. Well, i can tell you right now that this is unlikely to happen for quite some time, but its also a worthless metric. It makes sense to use infrastructur thats already there for your commercial operations. However, the original claim was that "private industry hasnt put humans in LEO" Well, Space Adventures has put five paying customers on LEO. This has happened, government involvement in these events has been minimal. This claim is invalid. Claiming that private industry hasnt yet purpose-built a launch system for putting humans in LEO, would also be valid, as of May, 2007.

qso1 · May 9, 2007

Maybe its easier to define it this way: Private industry has been utilized to place customer payloads into LEO by NASA since the early 1960s with comsats being among the first private industry customer payloads. Private industry builds both the LVs and payloads, NASA launches them. Humans have yet to be put into LEO by any entity other than a nations government agencies although agencies such as NASA will use private industry giants such as Boeing or Lockmart to develop LVs and spacecraft to do the job. McDonnell Douglas purpose built the Mercury and Gemini vehicles to get humans to LEO but not for commercial operation. Valid for 2007: 3 nations and a private individual and his corporation are the only entities to actually place humans in space. The private individual of course was Burt Rutan and his company Scaled Composites. 3 nations have placed humans in orbit. Russia, USA, and China. You may also notice that the unmanned stuff is more economical to accomplish which is why comsats have been placed in orbit by private industry in conjunction with NASA since the early 1960s. Sending humans is much more challenging. Up until 2003. From 1961 to 2003...only two nations sent humans to LEO, and only one nation sent humans out of earth orbit. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

dreada5 · May 9, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr /> I stick by my statement, without VSE, it will be the end of humans (not just NASA) beyond LEO for a century...It will take private industry a century IMHO to get beyond LEO, again IF its profitable. <hr /></blockquote> So while Space Adventures/RSA are likely to get to Lunar (ie. beyond LEO) within several years, a natural follow-on question is how long would it take (if profitable) for private industry to go from LEO spaceflight to cislunar spaceflight? If we acknowledge that private industry (eg SpaceX) is roughly a decade away from routine LEO manned spaceflight and they have design options/plans for heavy-lift launchers. Why would it take another 100 YEARS (or anything like that) to acquire the systems (propulsion, life-support, hab etc) for "beyond LEO" spaceflight???

thereiwas · May 9, 2007

The barriers to private human spaceflight to LEO or beyond are mainly monetary. There simply has been no commercial reason to do it. (Comsats are a different story.) Privately launched people will get beyond LEO when there is a practical reason to go there.

BReif · May 9, 2007

Would you invest your hard earned money into this industry? Would you invest your life savings into private human spaceflight? I wouldn't. Too risky financially, and the Return on investment is dubious. You have a few multi-millionares doing this, and a few investors who beleive in this, but the average investor IMHO would not sink much into this because it has no practical use, therefore no real return. You will get a few very rich customers who will pay to go to LEO or to the Moon and back on a private venture, but costs are prohibitive for the average person, therefore, I beleive as a business, human spaceflight/tourism is ultimately, in the long term, not profitable, unless or until costs are brought way down. Why will it take 100 years? In my opinion, it will take that long to bring down the costs so that a guy like me can buy a ticket and go. There would be nothing that I would like to see more than private spaceflight/tourism take off and be successful, and I personally would love to take a cis-lunar trip, but I have to live in the real world, and recognize that I am not rich, and most people who would buy a ticket are not rich. (BTW, It is my hope that it will not take that long, but realisticly, in 50 years of spaceflight, how much have the costs of launching a payload into orbit, especially humans, really gone down.)

BReif · May 9, 2007

" However, the original claim was that "private industry hasnt put humans in LEO" Well, Space Adventures has put five paying customers on LEO. This has happened, government involvement in these events has been minimal. This claim is invalid. " Government involvement in these cases: Trained at a government facility by government employees, launched on a government launch vehicle as a passanger on a government spacecraft that is engaged in a government mission to a government space station, crewed by more government employees. In essence, these 5 people paid 20 million dollars, and took out additional insurance policies to hitch a ride on a government mission that would have occurred anyway. They just bought a seat on Soyuz, and the RSA and NASA agreed to allow it after determining that it wouldn't have a detrimental affect upon the government mission of Soyuz or ISS. Hardly minimal, it is material involvement, because without the government entities, it wouldn't have happened.

no_way · May 9, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />without the government entities, it wouldn't have happened.<hr /></blockquote> You cant as much as sneeze without government entities being involved in some way or another. Thats not the point. The point is, a commercial entity arranged the flights, got paid for it and made revenue on it. Which resources did they use in the process, is irrelevant. Putting the five space tourists to date on ISS is Space Adventures accomplishment, they did it, ergo commercial entity called Space Adventures put humans in LEO. Othewise, if some company would put their capsule atop an Atlas and launched humans to ISS, you'd still be saying that it aint private enterprise launching humans to LEO, as Atlas was built with government money ? Like i said, you can reword your original statement to "privately financed rocket hasnt launched privately financed human missions to LEO" Even there you have to to be careful to say LEO, not space, as privately financed and built rocket has launched humans to space too. Its a pretty limited claim.

BReif · May 9, 2007

I was under the impression that the issue in question was: "If VSE is cancelled, what happens to humans beyond Low Earth Orbit." I beleive that if VSE is cancelled, government manned spaceflight will cease to exist, and if that happens, Space Adventures will no longer have a product to sell. (yes, I beleive that if the US quits manned spaceflight, so will Russia and China in short order.) The Private Sector, what you term Private financed rocketry, etc., has succeeded in doing sub-orbital spaceflight without any governmental support, other than the FAA clearing them for the flight through Class A, back into Class E airspace up to an altitude of 62 miles (we define space at 60 miles altitude, though technically this is the upper atmosphere). That is a major acheivment, and I applaud it, and hope it can be built upon. Space Adventures made these 5 tourist flights possible, yes. It is a private business, yes. However, ventures such as this can not rely upon the governenment, any government, to sell them seats, or allow the use of their facilities and vehicles. Lets look back on aviation development and how that took place as an example. Private companies like Boeing, McDonald Douglass, Lockheed, etc., researched and developed their own planes for the civil air transportation market. This is why we have civil airlines today, and not a single government airline. This is what needs to happen in spaceflight. There needs to be a broader market for it to work, as well as competition to keep costs down. Whether or not a government entity is involved or not is pricisely the point in my point of view, since government entities tend to restrict private enterprize, and tie the hands of entrepreneurs. I beleive government should have a space program, but it should stay out of private ventures entirely. If Space Adventures using a government space program to its own ends were the way to do this in the long term, then why is Burt Rutan

MeteorWayne · May 9, 2007

Thanks for saying it so clearly. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

jimfromnsf · May 9, 2007

"Othewise, if some company would put their capsule atop an Atlas and launched humans to ISS, you'd still be saying that it aint private enterprise launching humans to LEO, as Atlas was built with government money ? " LM put more money into Atlas V than the US Gov't

BReif · May 9, 2007

You're welcome MW.

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