ESA has shortlisted science missions for CosmicVision2016-25

[h2ouniverse]

ESA has shortlisted science missions for Cosmic Vision 2016-2025:<br />http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM1IQAMS7F_index_0.html<br /><br />Survivors:<br />*) Laplace: Jupiter, Europa, and jovian moons<br />*) TandEM: Titan and Enceladus Mission<br />*) Cross-scale: plasma interactions study by swarm of satellites<br />*) Marco Polo: asteroid sample return<br />*) A dark energy mission (Dune or Space)<br />*) Plato: exoplanets and astrosismology (successor to Corot, Kepler)<br />*) Spica: I/R observatory<br />*) XEUS: X-ray astronomy in formation flying.<br /><br />The selection process continues, taking into account cooperation with NASA, JAXA (including Laplace, Tandem and Marco Polo).<br />In the 2017-2025 decade, three large and three medium will be launched.<br />First in 2017, second in 2018, the other four later.<br /><br />

 

[j05h]

Those are all very interesting missions. If I had to choose 2, they'd be Laplace and Marco Polo, with the dark energy mission as backup. <br /><br />They could merge Cross-scale and XEUS. Plato and Spica at first glance also appear similar. Downselecting to 6 looks like tough choices. <br /><br />one thing that would be interesting for Laplace or Tandem would be US-built "Deep Impact" penetrators as supplemental instruments. Measuring a cloud of material from Europa, Titan or Enceladus could be invaluable.<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[h2ouniverse]

The first large will be coded L1.<br />The first medium M1.<br /><br />It is unlikely that L1 and M1 are both planetary exploration. They will probably try to serve differnet disciplines. But possible.<br /><br />Cross-scale is in-situ measurement of plasma by swarm of sats. XEUS is ultra-high precision astronomy in X, depending on two formation flying parts. These two missions have nothing in common.<br /><br />Plato is one satellite, close to Corot and Kepler, infor photometry. Spica is infrared observatory. No sensible merging.<br /><br />Penetrators are an option for both Laplace and Tandem, that can be associated with NASA's missions (Europa Orbiter and Titan Orbiter respectively). But association with NASA is probably for bigger stakes. UK has already developped penetrators (more refined than impactors), whilst on some other aspects, Europe might depend on US. Laplace includes an Europa orbiter. Tandem includes a balloon in Titan.<br /><br />Unfortunately, ESA seems to consider unlikely to do both Laplace AND Tandem, only one of them.<br /><br />Best regards.

 

[JonClarke]

The Titan mission is the only one that does anything for me. But objectively they are all important missions. It's a pity that so few will be funded. But that's the way of the world.<br /><br />Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[h2ouniverse]

That is for Science.<br /><br />Exploration/Aurora programme has Exomars running, and should prepare MSR. ESA did as NASA, transfer of Mars exploration to Human Flight directorate.<br />Should give Areologists some grain to mill...

 

[brellis]

<font color="yellow">...that's the way of the world. </font>- I still don't get it. We went from hunting and gathering and dodging mammoths to the present day - a highly technological society sending spaceships across the solar system, and there's something we can't "afford"? bah! Nonsense! <img src="/images/icons/mad.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#ff0000"><em><strong>I'm a recovering optimist - things could be better.</strong></em></font> </p> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>...that's the way of the world. - I still don't get it. We went from hunting and gathering and dodging mammoths to the present day - a highly technological society sending spaceships across the solar system, and there's something we can't "afford"? bah! Nonsense!<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />I agree, it is nonsense! I especially don't get it with ESA. Membercountries are &%$#@!ing around all the time that not enough money is spent on research and technology in Europe and then when it comes to funding of one organisation which is real and actually does primarily that - research and technology development, nothing happens. The budget stays flat, memberstates are not really showing commitments. Instead, ESA membercountries should embrace the chance that CosmicVision 2015 and other proposed science and space missions offer - give ESA a steady 10% increase in budget (just for science, not for launchers or human spaceflight) each year, and they can do all of the shortlisted missions.

 

[h2ouniverse]

An appalling recall:<br /><br />Public spending of all ESA member states = 6850 bn$<br />(Germany+France+Italy alone = 3500 bn$)<br />USA public spending: 2700 bn$<br />Japan: 1640 bn$<br />China: 490 bn$ (about 1950 bn I$ at ppp)<br />Russia: 157 bn$ (about 350 bn I$ at ppp)<br />India: 144 bn$ (about 700 bnI$ at ppp)<br /><br />ESA member states public spending budget is about 45% of world's public spending in nominal value, about 33% at power purchase parity.<br /><br />NASA budget / US public spending = 17/2700 = 0.64 %<br />ESA budget / ESA members public spending = 3.3/6700 = 0.05%<br />(ten times less!!!!)<br /><br />Is any comment really needed?<br />

 

[themanwithoutapast]

Is any comment really needed? <br />------------<br />Well, NASA has a very different past than ESA (otherwise it would not get 17 billion USD a year). And your calcs do not include the national space agencies money, which is again about as much as ESA's budget if you put it all together. But even with 6 billion EUR (8.4 billion USD) the ratio is just 8.4/6700 = 0.12% and 5 times lower than NASA/US (assuming your public spending is correct).<br /><br />However, the point of course remains, ESA needs more money or at least a clear view of a constantly strongly rising science budget.

 

[h2ouniverse]

I took my figures for public spending from cia world fact book.<br />As a matter of fact the ratio Public Spending / GDP is very different in western Europe from in the US (about 50% versus 20% in the U.S.).<br />But this is a relevant measure imho, because it reflects what taxpayers are used to pay for the common good.<br />This being said, even if we have the Space/GDP ratio instead, and even including the European national agencies, there would still bea factor larger than 2. So by any measure, ESA is underfunded.

 

[alokmohan]

nasa is pampered child.Esa is the future.

 

[h2ouniverse]

oh no alokmohan. ESA has and can still make remarkable achievements (I hope Exomars will be one of them) but there is so much difference. Not only on budget. But too and more essentially, on the innovation spirit.<br />A big difference too is the development duration for a given programme, much longer on this old side of the Atlantic.<br /><br />Another issue is the geographic return rule. Applied for each programs, this is a nightmare (not only bureaucratic and financial, but also technical). If the rules are not changed, e.g. by averaging the return over a large number of programs, this is going to further worsen as more and more "small" countries join ESA.<br /><br />Regards.

 

[nimbus]

Why isn't Spica redundant, considering the JW telescope? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[holmec]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>nasa is pampered child.Esa is the future.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />You can say all government agencies are pampered children including ESA. They beg for money like candy and they pout when they don't get it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>nasa is pampered child.Esa is the future.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Unfortunately not the case. And even with NASA's focus on human spaceflight in the near and mid-term, NASA will have more funds available for robotic science missions than ESA. <br /><br />ESA should not look to NASA in what to do. ESA memberstates should rather make clear what its primary purpose is: science and unmanned spaceflight and certainly not human spaceflight. And in line with all the big talk recently in Europe to further R&D, the first thing ESA memberstates should do is give ESA a steady increase in its budget...

 

[MeteorWayne]

Just as NASA should get a steady increase in it's budget <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[h2ouniverse]

Yes, if it was not for restrictions on employment of foreigners, European engineers would all go to NASA.

 

[h2ouniverse]

in reply to<br />--------------Why isn't Spica redundant, considering the JW telescope? <br />----------<br /><br />This Japanese mission (to which ESA would contribute) includes medium and far infrared. JW would be launched in 2013. Spica from 2017 but probably later. The added value to me is the far infrared thanks to cryogenic cooling (whereas JWST is near-infrared, mid-infrared).<br /><br />Catching cold objects will be of prime importance. Spica is more the continuation/improvement of Herschel mission (FIR) to be launched soon.<br /><br />Best regards.

 

[themanwithoutapast]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Yes, if it was not for restrictions on employment of foreigners, European engineers would all go to NASA.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Where do you get that notion from? The heydays of the braindrain from Europe to the US are nearly gone. Both scientists and engineers can earn good money in Europe, Europeans even return to their homecountries after spending years in the US or US citizens move to Europe. The point is, in today's world, people not only care about money (oddly enough thinking capitalism is the only system that survived), but a lot about the value of their living conditions or things like security or the general cultural atmosphere of a country.

 

[h2ouniverse]

in reply to<br />-------------<br />people not only care about money <br />-------------<br /><br />True. And precisely because of that. You have not quoted 'achievement" in the list of non-money motivations. You should have. In the specific case of space exploration, the potential for achievement is much higher in the US.<br /><br />So I "get my notion" from what I see in my environment. I maintain that the only reason why the braindrain is not continuing in the space sector is because of ITAR.

 

[JonClarke]

None of the ESA people I know would rather work for NASA (as opposed to with). They are very happy they are. They would of course prefer NASA level budgets.<br /><br />Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[holmec]

If your talking 'achievement', I don't think it matters anymore. ESA has achieved a lot working with NASA and RSA. I mean to have an experienced astronaut corps with out a space ship is no small feat.<br /><br />Currently one of the best lunar probes is SMART-1 an ESA ship.<br /><br />Columbus module is due to fly to ISS.<br /><br />ESA and RSA are looking to build a manned ship together to reach the moon.<br /><br />ATV is set to launch in January.<br /><br />ESA has a lot of achievements. And more to look forward to. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[nimbus]

Thanks. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[h2ouniverse]

in reply to<br />------------<br />ESA has a lot of achievements. And more to look forward to<br />-----------<br /><br />Certainly. But in terms of probabilities for a given individual, the picture is clear:<br />1) ESA's decadal plan includes just 6 missions for science, that means only about 2 to 4 for Solar System Exploration (excl Mars), since Cosmic Vision covers System expl AND astronomy<br />2) NASA's roadmap for Solar System Exploration alone (Moon and Mars excluded too!) includes over ten years 2 Flagships missions, 2 to 4 New Frontiers missions, 4 to 7 Discovery class missions. <br /><br />And our technology is at least five years behind on average. (less on Solar Arrays, more on RTGs e.g.)<br /><br />Note: the 2, 3 or 4 ESA missions are equivalent to New Frontiers and Discovery. Nothing never approaching a flagship mission.<br /><br />I am proud of Europe's achievements. And also endorse the impression that Science return per euro or dollar is better in ESA missions than in NASA's. But let's face reality: the gap is huge.<br /><br />Regards.

 

[h2ouniverse]

in reply to<br />------------<br />Columbus module is due to fly to ISS. <br />-------------<br /><br />Another example...<br />I've worked for two years for the Columbus module... in 1992!!!! And some of my colleagues of that time were working on ATV.<br />Neither one nor the other are launched yet.<br />Fifteen years.<br />Says it all.