Have we plateaued in technological advancements?

[GreenAce92]

So what are the barriers that we need before we can do things depicted like in Star Wars or a more recent film I have just watched, The Fifth Element...

The "barriers" I see are
Propulsion systems (F-T-L-T)
Antigravity

It seems like once we get past these then space travel as well as "hovering cars/sky cars"...
It seems like we had advanced faster in the 70's for the space race and such and now it seems like we slowed down...

I look at the rovers in mars and how long it takes to get there... if the Earth was screwed... could we save ourselves?
I plan on becoming a research and development engineer (if there is such a thing) and space is a great interest of mine, beside my main focus of aviation.

In my lifetime I'd like the word "Starship" to become a reality.

 

[ExplorerAtHeart]

Anything is possible as long as the laws of nature permit it!

We need more research and development!

 

[MeteorWayne]

So what are the barriers that we need before we can do things depicted like in Star Wars or a more recent film I have just watched, The Fifth Element...

The "barriers" I see are
Propulsion systems (F-T-L-T)
Antigravity

.

The Physics of the Universe?

Gimme a "U"

 

[kelvinzero]

Antigravity and FTL very likely do not exist.

Starwars/startrek scifi is really a sort of nostalgic fantasy. They look backwards rather than forwards. Starwars draws on both the cowboy and WW2 genres, Star Trek champions the idea that humans have an innate superiority over machines, and will always live primarily on earth-like worlds. I strongly doubt it will turn out that way.

There are however other technologies that are almost certain to eventually be perfected, probably within a century or so:

AI that is smarter than human, and keeps getting smarter.
Immortality (in various forms including immortal AI)
Self reproducing machines.
Genetic engineering.
Artificial biospheres.

These technologies will make space colonization trivial, if we have not already begun though other means. The future we can actually expect to have will be far stranger than Star wars or Star trek.

(I see this more as a Science fiction subject, MW. )

 

[MeteorWayne]

Good point, it has been Sci-Fi'd

 

[GreenAce92]

Hmmm I'll say this "lightly" so I don't look like a total fool if I decided to like make this as my "doctoral thesis" or something but "one day I will make this become not science-fiction or perhaps somebody else will"..... seems all my good ideas are taken or already created (not a plagiarizing kind of thing" but like examples

Spray on condom (I know totally off subject) but it's done! By the German's called "Jolly Joe's".
How about a sphere that you can run in and play games done!! By Virtuasphere or something like that

See to me without these sort of things and with such a limited mind outlook humans could not get by, "freezing ourselves to fly for years or months" that's bull crap humans to me are not very patient, some can be but I for one am not.... a three month travel to get to mars? I would go insane!!! Look at Einstein and his relativity I mean where is our genius like that? I heard someone say his brain is preserved somewhere. Would be nice if we brought him back.

Also for artificial intelligence I always wondered how us "humans" could give something a "conscience" that ability to think and wonder in your head, it's nothing like a computer it's what defines "alive". Every living being has this... to me anyways it can be simple or complex but just the ability to like "hear that voice in your head" or freely decide to do something... theres a breakthrough there.

I really do wish that the world would get over its whole "problem" of religious wars and political wars I mean I don't know specifics but if we combined for the greater cause I think the outcome would be phenomenal perhaps get rid of this what 13trillion dollar debt? The whole racial thing it's just whack... people are resistant to change.

 

[ZenGalacticore]

Have we "plateaued" in tech advancements?

No.

No.




And, wait for it...


No.

 

[StarRider1701]

^^^^^^^ What He Said! ^^^^^^^

Not only have we NOT plateaued, but we're still in the foothills. We have not even gotten to the mountain yet, much less begun to climb!

We have SSOOOO far to go that we can't even see it from here. Things like antigravity and FTL are just a drop in the bucket. True, they will be important, especially FTL if we are ever to become Galactic Citizens not confined to this lone solar system, but there are so many other wonders that we will achieve. Horrors too, I suppose because we are only human after all.

If we can dream, we can do. Yesterday's dreams are tomorrows realities. Just look at '40s and '50's Science Fiction. We just need more people with "can do" attitudes and less people constantly harping on what we can't do yet.

 

[jryle1234]

Not just no but H**l No. We humans have so much to learn that we havent even begun to do so yet. Lookinjg back from my acient 68 ano's I have already seen so much new. There are so many more discoverys to be made in fields that I cannot imaginary in my mind :idea:

 

[FictionBecomesFact]

Teletransportation: "Beam me up, Scotty"

and

Chrionics: (although Jake Sulley didn't cream in crio in Avatar)

will be major milestones in technological progress someday.

How much longer?

The answer depends upon how much longer it takes our governments to finally offer far more competitive prizes for high tech. breakthroughs:

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=23173

Presently the government's still "picking winners" by doling out tax dollars in the forum of (pork barrel spending-laden) government contracts, and so we're not making much progress...

 

[StarRider1701]

How much longer?
The answer depends upon how much longer it takes our governments to finally offer far more competitive prizes for high tech. breakthroughs:
Presently the government's still "picking winners" by doling out tax dollars in the forum of (pork barrel spending-laden) government contracts, and so we're not making much progress...

Your first mistake is waiting for the Government (any government) to pay you to for what you know or have invented. :shock: :shock:
The BEST thing that could happen to NASA would be to get it out from under the government's thumb! Had the government not been running NASA, we might actually have had a REAL space program since the Lunar landings...
So as long as you're sitting around waiting on government accolades for your work, you're right. You won't make much progress...

 

[halman]

A lot depends on your perspective.

Energy conversion technology is still very primitive, given that controlled fusion is still not a workable reality. If we could even convert 10 percent of the energy contained in mass into usable form, we might be able to have Star Wars type technology. (Energy equals Mass times the speed of light, squared. The amount of energy in an object is equivalent to the amount of energy it would take to accelerate that object to the square of the speed of light.)

Why is it necessary to travel to another planet to qualify as 'futuristic'? Would a space station 15 kilometers across count? You also must remember that most schemes for traveling to Mars are based upon starting your journey from the surface of the Earth, which is really a stupid way of looking at the problem. Assembling a vehicle in orbit, fueling it there, and then beginning the journey would make a lot more sense. The amount of mass that we can put in orbit is unlimited, given an unlimited budget. If your Mars expedition vehicle massed 50,000 metric tons, and had a fusion powered drive, your journey would probably not take that long.

We are still in the infancy of many technologies, with huge strides left to come. You are a fan of aviation? Consider a winged vehicle with a take-off weight of 3,500,000 pounds. Can it be done? Of course. We just need to try. (Check out the thread 'A Cheap And Easy Way To Space' to see why.)

Don't confuse the results of inadequate spending with the end of innovation.

 

[strandedonearth]

CPU clock speeds seem to have plateaued at about 3 GHz. So now they just add more cores. 2, 4, and 8 cores, and I think there's a 12 out there somewhere. Now we just need more multi-threaded software.

 

[StarRider1701]

CPU clock speeds seem to have plateaued at about 3 GHz. So now they just add more cores. 2, 4, and 8 cores, and I think there's a 12 out there somewhere. Now we just need more multi-threaded software.

No, it just means that we've reached the limits of the current form of processor. Now what we need to do is invent a more efficient, better processor. I'll bet someone is out there working on that right now!

So is this the reason for thinking that ALL technology has suddenly stopped getting better, just because we've reached a plateau with regards to computing speed? Computers are great tools. Probably the most versatile tool we've ever invented. But computers are not the "end all" and "be all" of technology.

 

[nimbus]

The plateau is industry stalling parallel processing. It's not dramatic yet because there's still some progress ahead with 3D electronics, even tinier fabrication (e.g. that IBM 3nm tech just reported), and some others I can't recall off-hand. But linear processing ought to cave in at some point to the prospects of parallel processing.

And the brain is a parallel processor.

 

[Shpaget]

CPU clock speeds seem to have plateaued at about 3 GHz. So now they just add more cores. 2, 4, and 8 cores, and I think there's a 12 out there somewhere. Now we just need more multi-threaded software.

We need something that is to the transistor the same thing the transistor was to the vacuum tube; next generation technology.

 

[docm]

The "speed solution" comes out in the next 2 years: GPGPU, or general-purpose computing on graphics processing units, a form of parallel processing using graphics card circuit elements.

GPU elements, particularly the shaders, are among the fastest calculating engines out there right now and GPGPU puts them to work doing more than play games. OpenCL is the programming system most companies are headed towards. Both ATI and NVIDIA graphics cards have such capability now (Stream Procesing and CUDA, respectively) and both AMD and Intel are coming out with processors that will have GPU elements on the die for this purpose.

Using such features in a video editing rig can speed the rendering of many effects to the point where they can be done in real time vs. a few frames per second going through the CPU only. Such speed increases can also speed up scientific, design, simulation and other calculation intensive software significantly.

When it fully hits next year this will be a very disruptive technology.

 

[JasonChapman]

Putting Warp Drive, Antigravity, Teleportation, and Star Wars (That is fantasy) aside, there are certain technologies seen on Star Trek that are now reality. The most obvious being hand held computers. Apple have just released their Tablet which goes way beyond the flat screen mock ups used by the crew of TNG, DS9 and STV. We haven’t quite perfected the medical tricorder, but there are devices which are very mobile which do the same thing, most ambulances carry them, portable heart monitors etc. There has even been research on directed energy weapons, laser beams can be modified to destroy an incoming missile.
I don’t have a problem supporting the theory of warp drive, most of you know me well enough now and have seen my ‘first intergalactic spaceships’ post.

If I may I’d like to make a suggestion. It seems a lot of people are interested talking about speculative technology such as warp drive, and space missions of the future. Why not have a separate section for this. Give people a chance to air their ideas, isn’t this a directive a of space.com looking hopefully towards the future. I know there are those who might take the mickey, but from what I have seen there are plenty of eagle eyed moderators on here to ensure it will thrive.
Install some simple rules like nothing totally way beyond the imagination far fetched. I think there are plenty of people who will contribute to this, and who have wanted to contribute but feel they will be cast down into the unexplained. We live in an exciting time of discovery and it’s only fair that people should be allowed to contribute in this way.

 

[robotical]

I've noticed that quite a few people seem to think that technological advancement is slowing down or plateauing. My general observation is that few really have any idea what technology actually is. A car, by itself, is not a technology, it is the sum of many, many technologies. The only technological similarity between a Model T and a GM Volt is that they're a form of individual ground transportation.

After all, a car is simply a cart with an engine in place of the horse.

 

[silylene]

Within the next 25 years we will see great advancements in:
Displays (OLED 3D and flexible)
Lighting (OLED flexible thin white and colored panels with high energy efficiency)
Memory chips
Genomics
Anthropology - genetics of human evolution
Memory and intelligence enhancement drugs
Memory wiping drugs
Body imaging
Brain function imaging
Ability to read and write into targeted brain neurons.
Pharmaceuticals for cardiovascular health
Cure for Alzheimers and other dementias
Batteries
Fibers
Nanostructured coatings
Electric cars
Self assembling nanochemistry
Catalysts for direct generation of H2 from water
Enzymes for direct production of useful oils and fuels from biomass
Self-cleaning paints
Telescopes and imaging chips
Miniaturized phased radar array and collision avoidance software in all vehicles
Solar shingles, and cheap photovoltaics
Organ, limb, skin, face transplants
Artifical limbs
In vitro grown organs
Human genetic engineering
Robotic surgery
Artifical neurons
Spying

50 years from now
Brain transplants
Telomare repair and 50+ yr life extension

 

[Shpaget]

silylene, don't you think you're a bit optimistic?

Within the next 25 years we will see great advancements in:
Memory chips (for computers or humans? definitely not for humans IMO)
Memory and intelligence enhancement drugs (already here, most of them illegal )
Memory wiping drugs (uh... memory is a tough nut to crack, especially if you want to be specific)
Ability to read and write into targeted brain neurons. (making a new "brain entry" or a memory is surely more complicated than deleting one... don't think any of us here will see it happen)
Cure for Alzheimers and other dementias (again related to nervous system -> complicated; cure is a bit strong word, maybe retardant is a better suited one?)
Self assembling nanochemistry (inteligent? :? or just a chain reaction type?)
Catalysts for direct generation of H2 from water (breaking laws of thermodynamics?)
Human genetic engineering (we're definitely far from that)
Robotic surgery (they're still too clumsy, and computers are still too dumb)
Artifical neurons (again nervous system related, meaning very advanced, I'm afraid not in next 25 years)

50 years from now
Brain transplants (hopefully never)
Telomare repair and 50+ yr life extension (genetic engineering on a grown individual?)

 

[nimbus]

Dig into these for concise starters..
http://www.nextbigfuture.com
http://www.sens.org which very recently reformed itself to be less blatantly (for general public anyway) a run up to altogether curing aging.
http://www.kurzweilai.net

Just to pick a few..
H2O>H2 catalyst development was featured in a couple of major publications, one of them MIT..
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/21536/
Google search gave another hit "viruses harnessed to split water", so clearly there's many roads leading to that objective.

IIRC It's an IBM high executive that said he expected chips in people's heads being common by 20 years from now. It may turn out like artificial vision, which first broke into mainstream reporting at least 10 years ago and since hasn't made much waves in the news pond, but is certainly seeing significant progress nonetheless. It should be in constant flux and so not quite news-friendly because so prototypical, till it gets to the point where it's effective (high enough definition, etc) and looks good enough on TV. Which is a poor criteria for the realities of such a disability.

Telomere repair (yes quite possibly gene therapy) is in the crosshairs, yep.

Nano self assembly made at least a few recent blips in the news. Last one I read (within 2 weeks) was using DNA or DNA-like proteins. It's a lucrative field.. enormous tech and financial prospects -- There's probably at least a few quality journals specialized.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2006/06/synthe ... otech.html

A pretty good documentary on one of the most mediatized figures and movements in this type of emerging tech/research. Well balanced and touches on many fundamental and very thought-provoking issues.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 7451441972
He's one of the main people that got SENS started.

 

[eburacum45]

Things that will come to pass eventually (probably)
Considerable advances in energy technology; fusion power,
nuclear powered spacecraft, particle beam driven interstellar spacecraft (see the 'Sailbeam' concept by Jordin Kare)
Nanotechnology advances including mechanochemistry, automated assemblers and self-replicating technology;
Artificial intelligence, very probably far in advance of human intelligence;
Ubiquitous computing - even where artificial intelligence isn't in use, practically everything will be connected by datalink to everything else, and will more or less operate autonomously
Virtual reality indistinguishable from real life (or completely different from real life, if preferred)
Personality uploading into computers
Life extension
Somatic and germline genetic engineering

Just don't expect them all in the next 25 years.

What we won't see is antigravity or faster-than-light travel, but with all the above going on I don't think we'll need them.

 

[nimbus]

Speak of the devil...
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/05/aubrey ... nd-to.html
http://www.livestream.com/liftconferenc ... 43d084b4b1

 

[BurgerB75]

I can definitely see advanced gene therapy in the somewhat near future (~50 years). Where and when to use it should be an interesting moral dilemma.

And btw, anti-gravity already exists: