Hurricane Ivan

[rvastro]

Track now moved back to the west<br />

 

[rvastro]

I am hoping that the high pressure area pushes the storm away from Florida. Two 'canes are enough for us. Nerves are really frazzled down here.<br />One place even placed a hurricane checklist on thier plywood<br /><br />From<br />http://www.local6.com/slideshow/news/3707046/detail.html?qs=;s=1;p=news;dm=ss;w=320;tn=b<br /><br />

 

[ew72]

That is about the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard in my life. People thought I was crazy for saying that these three strikes (and you're out) are all about God's treatment of an obstinate population over how I've been treated since Navy Retirement. <br /><br />After all, maybe it's not all really about me.<br /><br />Or, maybe it is. <br /><br />The United States inventing artificial hurricanes? Nope. God, the one who creates hurricanes, would probably put a stop to that.<br /><br />I have survived several Category Five Hurricanes. Homestead, Florida. Naha, Okinawa. Australia's coast. Japan. Of course, they are all known by different names - cyclones, typhoons, and so on.<br /><br />The people who build on the beach are now scratching their heads. "Wow, how did that happen?" On the contrary, as I stated last week, while all of the scientists who could study the very fascinating behavior of birds during hurricanes is probably cowering in a bath-tub. Genetically, they have been programmed to understand all of this. Hurricanes are not spinning pizza - they are more like spaghetti in a pan being stirred, with the spaghetti forming the severe gusts above the "sustained winds" of the spinning water. With a Hurricane like Frances, you'll see a lot of water that is spinning, giving your house the wind tunnel test that can be easily survived, given good planning.<br /><br />For instance, in Okinawa, when I survived a Category V Typhoon, the whole place is built right the first time. Sure, some of the peasants had shabby huts, but they could be relatively cheaply replaced. The government there had built their island FOR the Hurricanes. Concrete blocks, and these huge concrete hurricane baffles on the coastline - in the water. Here in Florida, if we were smart enough to create Hurricanes, we would have also been smart enough to build things like they do in Okinawa. Even closer to home, Bermuda is built correctly, and they get almost every hurricane that comes this way, and you'll ra

 

[rvastro]

Still early in the game. This track has Crazt Ivan skirting the Pinellas Beaches. If Tampa takes a direct hit--I shudder to think of what will happen.<br /><br />

 

[marslauncher]

my brother in law lives in Tampa, no doubt he will evac soon, but this thing has wobbled to a fro in between Tampa so I would hold out for some change still waiting for the 5am advisory at the moment<br /><br />will post as soon as I have it<br />

 

[marslauncher]

000<br />WTNT44 KNHC 100813<br />TCDAT4<br />HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004<br /> <br />REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL<br />PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW<br />929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT<br />ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND<br />SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS<br />A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY<br />GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE<br />FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...<br />THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING<br />ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER<br />POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF<br />MEXICO.<br /><br />THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS<br />REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN<br />NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN<br />PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE<br />GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. <br />THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN<br />WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE<br />ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER <br />WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF<br />FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE<br />OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA <br />IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF<br />COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO<br />FLORIDA.<br /><br />THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE<br />PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTE

 

[davp99]

Najab / Bajan, I'm Glad you Survived Ivan A-OK, Just wondered if you have Any Photos of Barbados? I saw some on the TV that showed Cement block houses knocked Completely Down...<br /><br />If you have Any Before Or After Photos of that Beautiful Island, Please Share them....<br /><br />Dave... <img src="/images/icons/cool.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font size="4">Dave..</font> </div>

 

[najab]

The photos you saw were probably from Grenada - Barbados was spared the full wrath of Ivan. The worst damage here was a few houses that lost their roofs.<p>One thing that has me <b>very</b> worried is that Grenada has two offshore dependancies: Carriacou and Petit Martinique. I haven't heard <b>anything</b> at all about those islands.</p>

 

[meteo]

Pressure down to an EXTREMLY low 920mb. The wind is now "catching up" to the pressure drop, as winds have now increased to 155 cat 5. However, this is pressure/satellite derived. Very bad situation for Jamiaca. Watch what this does after Jamiace.<br />

 

[drwayne]

I have been in Tucson for several days. Got back to the panhandle in time to start planning if things go further west...<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

Track is still inching westward.....*gulp*<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

Two of the models on Weather Underground show it headed right in our direction.<br /><br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[arobie]

<font color="yellow">"Track is still inching westward.....*gulp*"</font><br /><br />I know this is good for Florida, but I live in Louisiana right outside of that below sea-level city, New Orleans. Last I saw, the edge of the possible area that it could hit was right on the mouth of the Mississippi River. The more westward it moves, the better I feel for Florida, but the more worried I feel for my area. <br /><br />Florida does definitely deserve a break though.

 

[arobie]

I don't expect a direct hit by Ivan, but that thing is huge. It could hit northern Florida, and I would still feel effects from it.

 

[drwayne]

I remember Camille...if you remember Camille, that word has a power that is hard to explain....so I wish this on no one...<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[arobie]

I'm not old enough to remember Camille. Born in 88, and Camille was way before that.<br /><br />Just watched a local weather forcast, and the chances that is could hit us have increased yet again. Those increased chances are small and it is still very far away, but still it is unsettling. We just don't know what will happen. <br /><br />Our weather guy pointed out three possible outcomes: It hits Louisiana, it hits Mississippi/Alabama border area, or it hits north Florida. It is hard to predict which one as it is not even in the gulf yet.

 

[drwayne]

Wow, 1988...now I feel *real* old.<br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />August 1969 was a little before your time<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm<br /><br />Take a look at the track....<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[sloracer]

Has anyone noticed the tail of Ivan? Using the URL that NewsArtist gave, go to these settings--15 Satelite wv<br /><br />http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/dia.asp <br /><br />It sure looks like the tail is starting to curve into another hurricane on the East coast of Florida.<br />

 

[arobie]

drwayne,<br /><br />Just looked at the track of Camille. That looks really bad. My dad was right there very near New Orleans when it hit. Where were you?<br /><br />Sloracer,<br /><br />Yes I noticed the tail of Ivan also. I don't think it will amount to any, but it sure does look cool! <br /><br />Correction: My dad was in New Orleans during Camille.

 

[drwayne]

I was safe in Huntsville. An Aunt and Uncle were in Gulfport...<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

"the barracks on the hill at Eglin"<br /><br />I work in building 13, not far from there....<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

Nope, must be a different building....<br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Though sometimes my work might drive me to drink.<br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<i>Just looked at the track of Camille. That looks really bad. My dad was right there very near New Orleans when it hit. Where were you? </i><br /><br />I was a 10 yr old kid living in New Orleans East. Our family had evacuated into the Science building on the UNO campus on the lakefront. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[arobie]

Wow, that must have been an amazing experience. You probably remember it very well. My dad was too young.