Hurricane Ivan

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marslauncher

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000<br />WTNT34 KNHC 072350<br />TCPAT4<br />BULLETIN<br />HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004<br /> <br />...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...<br />CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN<br />CARIBBEAN...<br /><br />A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE<br />GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.<br /><br />A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR<br />THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...<br />AS WELL AS FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLUMBIA. A HURRICANE<br />WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND<br />CURACAO.<br /><br />AT 645 PM AST...2245Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MARTINIQUE HAS<br />DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING<br />REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.<br /> <br />INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND<br />CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.<br /> <br />AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR<br />LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105<br />KM... WEST OF GRENADA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...<br />EAST OF BONAIRE.<br /> <br />IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS<br />MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /> <br />REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE<br />THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON<br />THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS<br />NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL<br />STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /> <br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...<br />FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP<br />TO 160 MILES...260 KM. GRENADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS
 
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rvastro

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**sigh** <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /><br /><br />
 
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najab

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Hi s_g, good to see you back. Yup, I'm okay here - Ivan zigged at the last moment and we just got a brush from him. I've still got no power. There was limited damage, but one death <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /><p>When last we heard from Grenada, they were being battered - no one has had any contact with the Island since late last night.....</p>
 
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CalliArcale

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PHEW! I'm glad to hear you're okay! We'll try not to pester you too much to drain your power reserves just to post here. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> But thanks for the update! It's good to know you're okay.<br /><br />Now we can all worry about Grenada.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>
 
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najab

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Hi all. I got power back a little while ago. It's nothing but bad news out of Grenada: one report I heard said that up to 90% of houses have been damaged or destroyed.<p>Ivan has his sights set on Jamaica now and then, as if they haven't had enough already, Florida.</p>
 
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marslauncher

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000<br />WTNT44 KNHC 090231<br />TCDAT4<br />HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />11 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004<br /> <br />IVAN WENT THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH<br />THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 951 TO 938 MB IN A PERIOD OF<br />ABOUT 5.5 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL-WINDS WERE 131<br />KT...AND A NORTHEAST EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS NEAR<br />120 KT. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE PRESSURE...THE MAXIMUM<br />INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH<br />127 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. <br />THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED<br />SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTER LEFT...SO IT IS UNKNOWN IF<br />THE DEEPENING HAS CONTINUED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A<br />LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.<br /><br />IVAN HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE EVENING AND THE<br />INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/15. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE<br />FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AS IVAN SHOULD<br />CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE<br />SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THINGS GETS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR...AS THE<br />RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DIGGING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER<br />THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD<br />UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW IVAN TO TURN<br />NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE USUAL QUESTIONS<br />OF WHERE AND WHEN. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE<br />HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE GFS RECURVING IVAN THROUGH<br />THE BAHAMAS...THE GFDL MOVING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THE<br />NOGAPS MOVING IT UP THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE<br />SUPERENSEMBLE PASSING JUST WEST OF KEY WEST. GIVEN THE<br />INCONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS...AND THE LEFTWARD NUDGE THAT OCCURRED<br />THIS EVENING...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT AS FAR EAST AS THE<br />GUIDANCE AT T
 
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ew72

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Perhaps true, as I posted a topic over at the "Free Space" board, never dreaming in my wildest dreams that the bright minds of the type who appear here would dare to post "Hurricane xxx" in an area called "Missions And Launches."<br /><br />About Hurricane Ivan. I take it very seriously. VERY seriously. I'm writing from you from Tampa Bay, Florida. <br /><br />Ground Zero. If NASA can send a probe called Genesis across billions and billions of miles and land it not only on the right planet but even in the right Continent, then By God God can land a Hurricane on target.<br /><br />Let me explain to all of you why this Hurricane is headed here. In April, 1983, I joined the United States Navy as a Cryptologic Technician. My Boot Camp was Orlando, and my "A" school was in Pensacola, "The Cradle of Naval Aviation." I was in Europe for 3 years until 1986, working for a 4-star named Admiral Moreau, Commander In Chief, Naval Forces Southern Europe. From there I went to a Tactical Intelligence Communications Systems school in Pensacola before going to the USS Midway, then based in Yokosuka, Japan. From there I returned to Pensacola to attend Naval Aircrew Candidate School, and from there, I flew on EP-3E's for 4 years, of the type made famous for an unscheduled landing in China in 2001. I was a "Secure Communications" operator, which infers, if you didn't know, the requirement to have a Top Secret SCI clearance which I held throughout my 20 year career.<br /><br />From then, I landed in Miami the unfortunate day before Hurricane Andrew struck to go to my new posting at the Naval Security Group Activity in Homestead, Florida. Was sent on vacation by the Navy while they would sort out where I would go, because they had a problem of first locating everyone already assigned to the destroyed base. So, I ended up in Key West from 1992-1995, getting hooked on many Shuttle flights. From Key West, on a clear night, you could see the Shuttle launches as a bright orange point of light. Nothing
 
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halman

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rvastro,<br /><br />Monday is a long way off in the life of a hurricane. Remember: If Frances had followed the track predicted at this point in her life, there would probably be nothing left of the Kennedy Space Center by now. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>
 
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marslauncher

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WTNT44 KNHC 090853<br />TCDAT4<br />HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004<br /> <br />AIR FORCE RECON THIS MORNING HAS FOUND AN INTENSE HURRICANE IVAN.<br />THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 922 MB HAS DROPPED 15 MB IN THE PAST 7<br />HOURS...WHILE THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 154<br />KT...EQUAL TO 139 KT SURFACE WIND...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF<br />THE CENTER ON TWO SEPARATE PASSES. IN ADDITION...AND EYEWALL<br />DROPSONDE RECORDED A WIND SPEED OF 175 KT AT ABOUT 630 FT ABOVE SEA<br />LEVEL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...IVAN IS EASILY UPGRADED TO A<br />140-KT CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AS I WRITE...A NEW RECON REPORT<br />INDICATES AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 916 MB.<br /> <br />THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. IVAN HAS BEEN SLOWLY GAINING LATITUDE<br />OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS<br />SUGGEST THAT IVAN MAY BE MOVING AT 295 DEGREES. DROPSONDE DATA FROM<br />THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS AROUND IVAN HAS RESULTED IN <br />TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODELS THROUGH 60<br />HOURS...ON IVAN MOVING OVER OR AT LEAST VERY NEAR JAMAICA IN 36-48<br />HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH THE<br />SPREAD IS MUCH LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS.<br />UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL SPREAD STILL BRACKETS THE FLORIDA<br />PENINSULA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AGAIN REMAINS IN<br />HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF A MID- TO<br />UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 34N 48W. WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST<br />THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN<br />FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST<br />AT 00Z WAS NOGAPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH<br />THE ECMWF MODEL...ON BRINGING IVAN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND<br />THEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS<br />THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERN
 
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najab

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Did you see the 6:35 update - they found winds of 210mph at 350 feet!
 
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aaron38

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A category 5?? Ivan's going to erase Jamaica off the face of the Earth!<br /><br />If Ivan follows the track in Marslauncher's latest post, how much shielding will Florida get from Cuba? Will the eye stay intact crossing over that much land?
 
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CalliArcale

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I'm just glad it's further west than expected, so impoverished Haiti won't get the worst of it. It's bad enough that places like Grenada got hit, and bad enough that Jamaica will be hit but Haiti is the poorest nation on Earth. It'd be destroyed. It still might be....<br /><br />This is one hell of a hurricane season. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>
 
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najab

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><i>Will the eye stay intact crossing over that much land?</i><p>Yes. Cuba is only about 60 miles wide or so, and not particularly mountainous.</p>
 
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najab

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Haiti was already pretty badly hit by floods earlier this year - more than 1700 people died in mudslides caused by heavy rains over Hispaniola.
 
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meteo

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NHC is predicting a florida landfall at cat 4. There is some shear as you move towards any land forms, cuba included. However, cuba is as najab stated not that wide nor tall. THe florida straits and south of cuba are >30C waters. So there is a good chance for strengthening before hitting Florida. If it goes west it has even longer to intensify. Hopefully it goes east and grazes Florida. I'm waiting for the 11am NHC projection map.
 
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marslauncher

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000<br />WTNT34 KNHC 091451<br />TCPAT4<br />BULLETIN<br />HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />11 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004<br /><br />...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR JAMAICA AND THE<br />WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /> <br />AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE<br />WARNING FOR JAMAICA.<br /> <br />A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR<br />THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE<br />DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.<br /> <br />A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE<br />WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.<br /> <br />AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS<br />ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE<br />BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM<br />WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN<br />REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.<br /> <br />AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE<br />WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS<br />EASTWARD.<br /> <br />AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...<br />AND CURACAO AND ALL WARNINGS FOR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE BEEN<br />DISCONTINUED.<br /> <br />INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY<br />MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.<br /> <br />AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR<br />LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...<br />695 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.<br /> <br />IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH<br />...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT<br />24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON<br />FRIDAY. <br /> <br />IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE<br></br>
 
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marslauncher

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Hurricane IVAN<br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive <br /><br />UPDATE <br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br /><br />000<br />WTNT44 KNHC 091452<br />TCDAT4<br />HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004<br /> <br />THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING ABOUT 1141Z.<br />FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS WERE 156 KNOTS WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED<br />PRESSURE OF 917 MB AND 921 MB MEASURED BY A DROP. IVAN HAS AN<br />OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER...THE RING OF<br />CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. INITIAL<br />INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS. HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN<br />SUCH PEAK INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME AND MOST LIKELY THERE WILL WE<br />SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE<br />BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA. THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS<br />OF LAND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE<br />WEAKENING.<br /><br />IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL<br />MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING<br />THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE<br />FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW<br />SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE<br />HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE<br />BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST<br />TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO<br />COLLAPSE AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN<br />AS IT CROSSES CUBA. A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS A LITTLE STRONGER<br />THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF<br />OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY THE UK...CAN
 
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marslauncher

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Looks like it still remains on target to hit Florida around the same location as Hurricane Charley.<br /><br />Three Hurricanes in 3 weeks in the same state...<br /><br />Imagine this little scenario, imagine if the past 3 Hurricanes were US made, artificial hurricanes, created to destroy a large amount of property and to wreak havoc on florida, this would benefit bush as he can provide all sorts of emergency funding, look strong in the face of destruction, and also wipe out populous aiming to vote for Kerry. look at what was destroyed, mobile homes and low level income properties, sure there was damage to yachts and boats (which would have been insured) but most of the low level income people are now relying upon swift action from the government, if Bush wins florida he wins the election (most common scenario)<br /><br />just a thought...
 
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antilope

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Maybe NASA should look into dispersing its launch operations to a second site and not have all its eggs in one basket. A direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane on KSC could wipe out the space program for several years until the infrastructure was rebuilt.
 
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najab

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It's a good idea, but I suspect it would be hard to find another site in the US that would allow equatorial launches, and not be subject to overflight constraints.<p>The Air Force has twice passed up on having their own manned-launch facilities on the West coast.
 
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Leovinus

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<i>Workers at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., move debris from the Vehicle Assembly Building, rear, onto a pile Tuesday, Sept 7, 2004. Hurricane Frances tore some 820 panels from the VAB. (AP Photo/Peter Cosgrove)</i> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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