Mars Settlement Financing

[scottb50]

The typical Neo-Con answer. Not my problem. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[dan_casale]

Scottb50:<br />Sorry but I don't think I understand your response?

 

[adzel_3000]

Given all the focus on developing a colony/settlement of Mars and the Moon, one question arises: Can humans reproduce (and can human females succesfully carry and deliver) an infant in a less than one gee environment? This would seem a very big question mark toward the development of any off-Earth settlement.<br /><br />--A3K

 

[quasar2]

i`d certainly think children born on Mars would easily handle Lunar gravity. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[adzel_3000]

Yes, kids born on Mars could handle lunar gravity. <br /><br />My concern is: do we know if children can be born on Mars? We've evolved over millions of years to gestate in a one-gee field. Is it safe to do so in a 0.3 gee field? <br /><br />--A3K

 

[quasar2]

an ifinizillion dollar question. & another one would be this: would even a spindizzy be exactly the same as 1g even if @ same relative speed? possibly not. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[spacester]

Just for the record again, in my own personal terminology, the difference between a Settlement and a Colony is, by definition, that Settlers don't make babies but Colonists do.<br /><br />I feel bad that I haven't been moving this thread forward, that darn real life stuff is getting in the way. It doesn't look any better for the next week and a half; I'm on the road next week. But hopefully I can write up the next step in my logic this weekend. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[paleo]

"i`d certainly think children born on Mars would easily handle Lunar gravity"<br /><br /> Why would children born outside of Earth be any different than those born on Earth? They are genetically the same.<br /><br /> The differences would be topical such as early death from radiation and malformation of cells leading to leukemias, etc. collapsed body structures, brittle bones, etc.<br /><br />Women couldn't give birth to healthy children unless conditions are controlled and then the children would be identical. Anything less and the new generation would be weak, sterile and would be incapable of reproduction. <br /><br /> For there to be Martian humans then there has to be conditions established 'somehow' to replicate gestation and early growth for children that are the same as on Earth. Humans are physical organisms that have evolved from 3.5 billions years in an Earth environment. Every bit of DNA is critical when it comes to reproduction. Change a couple variables and fetuses are naturally aborted.

 

[kdavis007]

Well it is best that we need to find out..

 

[teije]

*bump*<br /><br />Spacester<br />I haven't been contributing to any of your mars threads, but I'm still very interested in your proposed idea of financing. Although I confess that even with the hints I still don't have a clue to what it would be. Any chance that you can elaborate a bit more?<br /><img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Cheers,<br />Teije

 

[chris_in_space]

"Hmm... 20% that's good (in fact really good for such a sort of "lottery" type idea). But I'm not quite satisfied... What you need is 50%, not 50% of money donators but 50.01% of public approval. Why? Well I'll illustrate my sort of weird financing strategy with a very up to date example."<br /><br />I really agree with you spacester when you say that people can approve and support huge projects if they are deeply convinced (or at least have the impression) that it's for a good and noble cause (in our case it could be the future of man kind or acquiring knowledge and so on). <br />A perfect recent example that people can give someone a tremendous amount of support if they are convinced that it's for a good cause, and this no matter how many drawbacks and obstacles there may be, is the war in Iraq. I mean it's unquestionable that the war in Iraq is very expensive and has a lot of drawbacks. But why people support Bush and why have they voted for him last year? Because he succeeded in convincing them that this war is for an extremely noble cause (" the spread of freedom and democracy in the entire middle east", liberating the Iraqis from a terrible dictator, bla bla bla). And he succeeded this in a very short period of time so it's much more quickly as setting up an "American culture where space development has been mainstreamed" which could take decades or even generations. And what's the consequence of having convinced more than 50% of the people that your plan is for a noble cause. Well you can use taxpayer’s money almost as you like as long as it supports your grate and noble cause. I mean Bush managed to get $80 billions fro his war in Iraq plus several hundreds of billions indirectly. And all this in barely 3 years. Such amounts of money should be "enough" even for NASA to set up a Mars settlement mission ("enough" cause I know that a lot of people here consider NASA as the worst possible thing happening to space exploration, which I don't always agree with, but he

 

[spacester]

OK, so I want to get 39 million people involved in terms of cash contributions. At a subscription level of $25 to $750, we can garner $3 Billion per year for the first 5 years. With this in place, we make sufficient progress to keep the support at a level of $3 Billion a year for the life of the project, which I put at perhaps 25 years.<br /><br />People put this money in the kitty because they get a small personal benefit (magazine subscription at the most basic level, more stuff for more support), they get satisfaction from being a part of assuring American dominance in space and other high tech stuff, and they get a chance to go into space.<br /><br />The program needs to be credible and understandable. We want to involve students at every grade level and in every community to the extent that we must to achieve the needed market penetration.<br /><br />To get this market penetration, we need to . . . uh where was that quote of mine . . . ah, here it is . . . "It's been fun to try to find ways to align current societal activities with space development. How could we insinuate ourselves into the fabric of life? What I've come up with is that one must consider what it is people do as they go about their daily lives, and what kinds of things would cause them to join a collective effort to promote a better future. "<br /><br />OK, so education is a big part of it, and we're looking at daily life and how to connect our program with 39 million Americans willing to shell out hard earned cashola. Education means schools. That's the institution to make that part of the connection. What institutions are there to do the rest of the connecting?<br /><br />OK, for starters, there's Kiwanis, Rotary, Elks, Lions club, and other private benevolent societies. What if we can energize their membership levels and further our own goals at the same time?<br /><br />What if we had these service clubs work with Kids and their Space Clubs to develop hardware and logistical infrastructure?<br /><br />W <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[crossovermaniac]

I don't see how anyone will be able to fund a colony on Mars. A one-shot mission, yes. Pay-per-view, advertisement, product endorsement, etc. But there's nothing on Mars that will get billionares to invest in a mission...in the near term. Robert Zubrin did point out that Mars could be a source of agriculture for hungry asteroid miners. But for right now, there's no incentive to fund a Martian colony outside of scientific research. Further into the future, when man has expanded its prescence in space, then there is economic incentive to send people to Mars.

 

[spacester]

<font color="yellow">But there's nothing on Mars that will get billionares to invest in a mission</font><br /><br />Agreed. Which is why we get the money from 39 million individual Americans. Annual subscriptions at three different levels of support.<br /><br />We need $3 Billion a year so that's <br />20,000,000* $25 = $0.5 Billion <br />plus <br />18,000,000 * $100 = $1.8 Billion <br />plus <br />1,000,000 * $750 = $0.75 Billion <br />totaling <br />$3.05 Billion <br /><br />That's the cash we have to spend. Our job is to harness the energies of students across America to generate a credible, integrated plan at a high level of robustness, completeness and credibility.<br /><br />If we do that, the next wave of financing comes on board.<br /><br />We're not soliciting Joe Billionaire or Joe Taxpayer for this project. We're soliciting Joe Sixpack, Joe Homeowner, Joe Professional, Joe Middle Class.<br /><br />Oh, and it's NOT a COLONY! It's a SETTLEMENT. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><br /><br /><font color="yellow">But for right now, there's no incentive to fund a Martian colony outside of scientific research. </font><br /><br />Wrong. The incentive for settling is very simple: to Be There. Settling is its own incentitive.<br /><br />Plus, of course, Settlement Supports Science. Have you read the threads? Maybe the precursor thread needs a bump . . . <br /><br />Ultimately, the incentive for a People's Space Program is to become a Space Faring Society. It's the new way for Americans to lead the rest of the world to a bright future.<br /><br />We go to Settle Mars, Play on the Moon and Exploit the Asteroids. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[smradoch]

Maybe you should found your own church. Or become a pope and you can order some kind of crusade. It seems to me that your faith is strong enough. To begin this settlement you need a hell on Earth or heavens on Mars.

 

[chris_in_space]

spacester,<br /><br />39 millions individuals is quite a lot you know. I don't say it's impossible but you need to have a huge cultural change in order to have that. And you seem to agree with it since the motivation for all this is having a space faring society. So my question: how long do you except it will take to have such a huge cultural change (cause we have to be realistic, today most people (let's say more than 95%) don't give a toss at space science, space exploration and so on...). So how much time do you expect this shift in mentality to take, especially if you want to build it from the buttom up that means starting from the people themeselves and not the politicians. And there's a subsidiary question what would be the best way to engage this cultural shift?

 

[spacester]

<font color="yellow">Maybe you should found your own church</font><br /><br />LOL, the funny thing is that this is NOT about my ego. This is about sharing with y'all the results of a multi-year study I've done on this problem. I don't have all the answers. I <i>think</i> I've found the germ of the seed of a kernal of an idea for how to Become a Space Faring Society.<br /><br /><font color="yellow">. . . you need a hell on Earth or heavens on Mars. . .</font><br />LOL, I'll take that as a cute turn of phrase rather than as a relevant concern. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[spacester]

<font color="yellow">39 millions individuals is quite a lot you know.</font><br /><br />LOL, you ain't a-kiddin' brother, that's a LOT, a very large number, that's a major shift in cultural consciousness. I recognize that. The hard part is accepting the fact but moving on to a solution anyway.<br /><br />But at least one person (you) gets it. It's rather outlandish of an idea, I can see why folks would think it's laughable. But that's what it will take, so lets talk about it and see what we can come up with to make it happen.<br /><br />That's what this thread is about. I don't have all the answers. I've got an overview look at a general outline of a draft proposal, but not much more than that.<br /><br />How long? I dunno. Let's gather out Philospohies, our Strategies and our Tactics, pool them together, and only then start to put together a timeline. One thought is that if it doesn't happen quickly enough, it prolly won't happen at all.<br /><br /><font color="yellow">. . . what would be the best way to engage this cultural shift?</font><br /><br />That's the $64 Billion dollar question. It's taken me years to come up with a preliminary answer, a complete enough answer to begin talking about it in earnest. <br /><br />That answer is to form a People's Space Agency and have it work with schools at all levels and in every community to plan and execute plans with the overall goal of becoming a Space Faring Society. The financial support has to come from the rest of the community, and the first place to start is with existing service organizations. Build credibility from there, bring on financial support in waves, I've got an outline in mind of how you build up market penetration to the level we need. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[arobie]

<font color="orange">We go to Settle Mars, Play on the Moon, and Exploit the Asteroids.</font><br /><br />That, Spacester, is our slogan!<br /><br />Let's see, our philosophies, stategies, and tactics...hmmm.<br /><br />Philosophies:<br /><br />Settlement before Science.<br />Astronauts have a return option. (We should make a point of that. A humane program.)<br />We do it, we do it grand, and we do it right.<br />The Incentive for Settling: To be there. To become a space-faring race. To set up for the future.<br /><br />Strategies/Tactics:<br /><br />Go en mass. Send many.<br />Since we do it grand, it is expensive. That's fine. <br />We get many, and we mean <b>many</b>, people to chip in: Collective Effort.<br />Get the kids involved. "Inspiration, Motivation, BeingPartOfSomethingGreatization." (Is there a word for that?) <br /><br /><i>We go to Settle Mars, Play on the Moon, and Exploit the Asteroids.</i><br /><br />What else do we have?<br /><br />[Edit] Oh and BTW, I have a rough simple time frame in my head. I'm waiting to hear more discussion first before throwing it out.

 

[crossovermaniac]

Dude, I'm all for going to Mars. But most people want to know what's in it for them. If we can find some sort of carrot to dangle in front of the donkey and cart to get it going, then Mars is a sure thing. If your idea works, then more power to you.

 

[teije]

Spacester,<br /><br />have you thought about how much of the money that is generated by your efforts will actually be 'lost' again? What I mean is twofold:<br /><br />1st. Everyone contributing to the effort will want something in return. You have already talked about a 'magazine.' Sounds good. Information about what is happening with their money is the first thing people will want. But a magazine costs money. Journalism, editorial work, publishing, printing, distribution. Let's say you want to inform people 4 times a year. If the magazine costs you $5,- per copy that would be $20,- per year which is 80% of what these people paid to begin with. So, obviously, it must cost less than that. Ok, so make it a webzine to everyone except a few who insist on getting in by snailmail, that cuts costs on mostly the last 2 items. Since this is only an example lets say we cut costs everywhere we can and be able to publish the magazine at $1,- a copy. So, only $21,- left of your initial $25,-. The same happens with the $100,- and $750,- contributors. Without wanting to make any claims on what you should or should not do in this part of the effort, I think that you will always lose at least 20% of your funds in keeping your contributors happy. Which brings me to my second point.....<br /><br />2nd. Keeping people interested: I'll believe (for the sake of argument if not anything else) in the estimated 39 million people contributing a total of $3 billion. However, people will always be people, and they want results. Unfortunately, large space projects will always be large space projects, and the results in the first couple of years will not be all that spectacular. I fear that, apart from the costs mentioned above, a lot of money will also go to marketing (the continuing effort of getting new and more people interested. E.g. tv commercials, sponsorships, etc.) And also into small but spectacular sub-projects to keep contributors happy. E.g. launching technology demo sats when you really

 

[chris_in_space]

Teije,<br /><br />you have perfectly illustrated the way many people think today about this topic. And that's why there's a need for a huge cultural shift. But I instist that people are willing to accept great sacrifices (financial sacrifices in this case) if they are convinced that it's for a good purpose. So we have to change cultural consciousness to accept that the Mars Settlement doesn't need to pay off imediately, but that it's for the future of the entire society. The only problem that I see with this cultural shift is that it could take quite a lot of time if done as proposed by spacester, i.e. through education and from the buttom up. For me a cultural shift done that way would take at least one or several generations which means at least 40-50 years...

 

[spacester]

Teije, those are very valid concerns and they are not new to my thinking. Due to exactly your points - 'lost' revenue - I hesitated to even mention the magazine, but as you say, people expect <i>something</i> tangible for their money. So we do a magazine, and we make it self-supporting. Advertising and sponsorships and another source I haven't yet mentioned would cover the magazine costs.<br /><br />In the end, the function of the magazine is to provide an exclusive portal to the Agency's efforts, not available to the non-contributing public.<br /><br />That's my thinking anyway, I'm no expert in the publishing business.<br /><br /><font color="yellow">People want results . . .</font><br /><br />Definitely. This is a major concern, and a big part of the challenge as I've tried to put together a plausible plan. We <b>cannot</b> in any way shape or form run this thing in any way that resembles a scam. It needs to have more credibility than anything most folks have ever seen. Cynicism is rampant, that's a major part of the cultural shift - defeating the cynicism.<br /><br />Forming a credible plan is not gonna happen coming out of the brain of one guy. It needs to be a collective effort, utterly open and honest in approach, and above all, deliver results.<br /><br />The key in delivering results is this IMO: Don't promise more than you can deliver. For the first "x" years, our 'early adopters' need to be prepared for this. But I figure you're not a true space enthusiast of you don't have patience.<br /><br />Yet there will need to be <i>some</i> tangible results within the first two years at a minimum. We need to build and fly some hardware, we need to get local papers writing about the role played by local schools and clubs in that doo-hicky that just arrived at the moon to test that thing they're working on. This is what I mean when I say that if it doesn't happen quickly enough it may not happen at all.<br /><br />We cannot allow this pressure to force us to launch thing <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[spacester]

<font color="yellow">. . . it could take quite a lot of time if done as proposed . . .</font><br /><br />Just to follow up on my previous post, yeah, that's a major concern. I don't have all the answers, I'm hoping this thread sheds some light on how the cultural shift could actually be done soon enough. 40 to 50 years is the general expectation anyway, so if it doesn't happen well before that time frame, that would be construed by me as a failure of this whole idea.<br /><br />I don't have all the answers, but I have kept several of my ideas in reserve, to be pulled out as we go along. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[ldyaidan]

I have several ideas, since we are brainstorming...<br /><br />1) Schools. This is going to be one of our best assets. Children can pull their parents, teachers, and relatives into the project just with their enthusiasm. As a mother of 2 teenagers, anything that gets my kids more interested in school has my vote. I recommend getting schools to sign up as sponsors of the program. For the school sponsors, membership should be free. This would give them access to the PSA website, with special passwords for the members area. We can provide updates, activities, pictures, bookmarks, bookcovers, lesson plans, coloring pages, q & a, all sorts of things, that they would download. Even their "official school sponsor" certificate can be downloaded and printed. This cuts down on publishing and shipping costs. As members, schools can participate in a variety of contests. For example: run a contest for schools to simply collect change for the project. The school with highest donation wins a prize (maybe a pizza party with an astronaut), and a certificate that they won. Another contest can be an art or coloring contest as previously mentioned in another post. Email to the crew I think is an awesome idea as well. Schools can decide what projects they are interested in, and the students can work with other student at other schools (even in different countries) on their specific projects. We can even offer a "Moon/Mars Camp" that each school can send x number of students to each year or semester. Those students from each school would work together on their project hands on, and report back to their schools. People, adults and children alike, pay big money every year for space camps. Student ambassadors can work with these paying participants, kind of on a scholarship basis. The paying participants will help cover the cost of the program. We can also have a "pledge" contest, similar to a telethon, but where students get friends and family members to pledge dona