Place your bets: XPrize Announcement today

[j05h]

So, they're announcing the next X Prize today at 2:00. Who wants to guess what it will be? NasaWatch is claiming "paradigm shift".<br /><br />I'm going for the X Prize sample return - but am not sure which celestial body. If it was my cash, it'd be asteroidal or Phoboan sample return, but Lunar is more likely. <br /><br />Thoughts, guesses?<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[spacy600]

http://tinyurl.com/3yg9u3<br /><br />Google Lunar XPrize Takes Off<br />Posted September 13, 2007 | 01:52 AM (EST) <br /><br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Read More: Google Lunar XPrize, Breaking Politics News <br /><br /> <br /><br />Over three decades after humanity last put a representative on the Moon, a new era in space exploration begins today, September 13, in Los Angeles as the Google Lunar XPrize launches with $30,000,000 in prizes for the first private group to successfully put a robotic rover on the moon. Enthusiasts have long dreamed of humanity reaching the Moon and, after that, the stars; the hope is that this XPrize will encourage research around the world that will make space exploration cost-effective to make that dream a realistic one.<br /><br /> <br />This is a particularly exciting time for teachers because the Google Lunar XPrize has made space education a high priority. The team at the Lunar Xprize has prepared free learning guides, videos and other resources to help stimulate student interest not only in space but in math, science and technology as well. You can find these materials by searching on Google for "Google Lunar XPrize" or going to www.google.com/educators.<br /><br />As a long time teacher at Palo Alto High in Palo Alto, California, I have been concerned about what I see as an anti-science trend in the schools. Twenty years ago, Palo Alto High School had five sections of Advanced Placement BC Calculus. These days, there only one to two sections per year. Across the country, fewer students are interested in studying science today than ten years ago.<br /><br />Students who are interested in math and science become innovators who improve humanity's lot -- we need more of them, not less. I hope this new and generous XPrize will motivate students all over the wor

 

[itsfullofstars]

Sounds very cool but I cant find any real info yet apart from blogs with the same press release. Just lots of 404s<br /><br />Anybody?

 

[henryhallam]

<i>IF</i> this is accurate, the prize amount seems to be very small compared to the mission cost. Whereas the original X Prize could have conceivable been won without spending more than $10m, $30m won't even buy you a launch vehicle... I think the ratio of difficulty/cash has gone up considerably.

 

[themanwithoutapast]

henry: not really true. It is entirely possible to buy a slot on a vehicle such as Soyuz, Rockot, Dnejpr etc. and use your own upper stage to get you to the moon. Your rover does not be to be large, so you don't need to have a dedicated launcher for your payload. Remember, Smart-1 was basically just a small add-on to a normal Ariane 5 mission that had some spare payload capacity to over.

 

[spacelifejunkie]

Henry, <br /><br />Actually, Paul Allen of Microsoft ponied up $25 million for Spaceship One. His ROI was waayyy negative from the prize alone. I agree, though, is $30 million enough to make this happen? What does the robot have to do? The robot itself could be quite pricey depending on the requirements. Could a Falcon 9 Heavy rocket make this happen? If so, SpaceX has quite a jump on the competition for the launch vehicle. Do they qualify? What about ULA? Lot's of questions.<br /><br />On another note, I posted in another thread concerning this topic and I said that I would recant my statement that the new X-Prize competition would be based on green energy. I was wrong. In a way, I'm glad that I am. This new competition is cool.<br /><br /><br />SLJ

 

[spacy600]

So Mr Diamandis's group plans to bypass governments altogether. As The Economist went to press on September 13th, the X Prize Foundation and Google were due to announce a new international competition to put an unmanned rover on the moon within five years. The internet giant is putting up $30m to sponsor the prize—with lunar videos to be featured on the firm's YouTube site.<br /><br />The first non-governmental team to land a vehicle safely, drive it for 500 metres and beam back high-quality videos will win $20m, so long as the task is completed by 2012. (The jackpot falls to $15m if the rover does not reach the moon until 2013 or 2014.) There is a $5m prize for the second-place team, as well as bonuses for detecting water, travelling farther and surviving a lunar night.<br /><br />http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9794908

 

[crix]

Spaceship One started sub-orbital spaceflight tourism. What will this new prize accomplish? I love the prize driven innovation paradigm but it is less clear to me what the effect on the world will be after the prize is won.

 

[themanwithoutapast]

There is no effect on the world by this X Prize, except that it might show the world (if actually it is won) that private companies can manage beyond LEO science missions in a very cost-effective way, which then would put into question the current contract award practice of NASA and ESA for unmanned missions.

 

[mithridates]

I can't agree with that. I'm not sure what the average age of posters on this site is but for those in their early thirties and under the Moon landings might as well have never happened. For me (28 as of this week) there have never been people on the surface, no rovers, nothing more than a few probes in orbit. Sure it happened, but it only happened in the same way the French Revolution happened, or the Vietnam War. Heard a lot about it, but what does it have to do with us now? If Google is in charge and the videos are going straight out through YouTube, it's going to result in a huge shift of consciousness in the younger generation regardless of how much science is or isn't generated. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">$30m won't even buy you a launch vehicle...</font>/i><br /><br />As someone has mentioned, buying additional space on an existing launch is probably your cheapest bet.<br /><br />But there are other issues that would drive people to support this, including advertising revenue (think of a Lunar rover looking like a NASCAR car), sales of other merchandise (like a book or DVD), and possible future sales. For example, if LRO finds some promising locations, a company may pay you to put a rover on that spot to gather some ground truth.<br /><br />And then there is always ago and passion.</i>

 

[j05h]

I'm getting flashbacks to 1998 all of a sudden. Not the original X Prize. LunaCorp. <br /><br />LunaCorp was a significant way along in developing a pair of lunar rovers that would be controlled by members of the public. There was a software trainer, they were planning on some kind of over-the-Internet control, and were building a set of VR control booths. The control pods would be part of an amusement park - you qualify on a PC or something, pay your $$$ and get to drive one of the rovers for several minutes. <br /><br />A Google X Prize sounds interesting - it benefits the public if it succeeds, provides (limited) cash incentive and gives both sponsors good publicity. $30m for a rover is going to be a serious challenge, even launching as secondary payload. The only way for it to hope to make money is whether another revenue stream, like selling time onboard. Otherwise, like SS1, it will be a loss-leader for the builder. Merchandising only goes so far.<br /><br />My recommendation would be to look at EELV "ESPA" secondary payload racks. Standardized, 180kg max, up to six per Delta (not sure it's available on Atlas) and available on a craft that regularly goes to GTO. That should be enough mass for a small electric engine, some kind of landing gear and a minimal rover. <br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[mithridates]

I just noticed that this time the prize isn't limited to American companies either so that opens up the field quite a bit to other countries that might be able to do it for quite a bit less cost. There's also a bit of government involvement involved (10% this time). There's also some more help here:<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><br /> SpaceX says it will offer each team an in-kind contribution that, in effect, represents a 10 percent reduction in the price of a Falcon rocket launch.<br /> *<br /> Universal Space Network will give the teams a 50 percent discount on its tracking, telemetry and control services, for data uplinks as well as downlinks.<br /> *<br /> The Allen Telescope Array, operated by the SETI Institute, will pass along 500 free megabytes of downlinked data from the lunar spacecraft - most likely including the required high-definition TV "mooncasts" sent back after landing and after 500 meters of roving. /> *<br /> SpaceX says it will offer each team an in-kind contribution that, in effect, represents a 10 percent reduction in the price of a Falcon rocket launch.<br /> *<br /> Universal Space Network will give the teams a 50 percent discount on its tracking, telemetry and control services, for data uplinks as well as downlinks.<br /> *<br /> The Allen Telescope Array, operated by the SETI Institute, will pass along 500 free megabytes of downlinked data from the lunar spacecraft - most likely including the required high-definition TV "mooncasts" sent back after landing and after 500 meters of roving.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Edit: removed the code that tried to turn the quote into a link (I think) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>

 

[docm]

mithridates: dead link<br /><br />Lunar X-Prize site....<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><b>Google Sponsors Lunar X PRIZE to Create a Space Race for a New Generation</b><br /><br /><b><i>$30 Million Purse to be Awarded to Winners</i></b><br /><br />SANTA MONICA, Calif., September 13, 2007 – The X PRIZE Foundation and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) today announced the Google Lunar X PRIZE, a robotic race to the Moon to win a remarkable $30 million prize purse. Private companies from around the world will compete to land a privately funded robotic rover on the Moon that is capable of completing several mission objectives, including roaming the lunar surface for at least 500 meters and sending video, images and data back to the Earth.<br /><br />The Google Lunar X PRIZE is an unprecedented international competition that will challenge and inspire engineers and entrepreneurs from around the world to develop low-cost methods of robotic space exploration. The X PRIZE Foundation, best known for the $10 million Ansari X PRIZE for private suborbital spaceflight, is an educational nonprofit prize organization whose goal is to bring about radical breakthroughs to solve some of the greatest challenges facing the world today.<br /><br />“The Google Lunar X PRIZE calls on entrepreneurs, engineers and visionaries from around the world to return us to the lunar surface and explore this environment for the benefit of all humanity,†said Dr. Peter H. Diamandis, Chairman and CEO of the X PRIZE Foundation. “We are confident that teams from around the world will help develop new robotic and virtual presence technology, which will dramatically reduce the cost of space exploration.â€<br /><br />“Having Google fund the purse and title the competition punctuates our desire for breakthrough approaches and global particip</p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[radarredux]

The X Prize front page includes a YouTube video announcing it, complete with some kids watching the event on an iPhone. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />http://www.xprize.org/

 

[spacefire]

I hope some innovative ways to lower the weight of a lunar package come out of this.<br />legged rovers with polymer muscles maybe? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[soyuztma]

I would try to buy the BlastOff! lunar rover design. These guys came pretty close to building their vehicle. The design was almost complete i believe and they planned to use an Athena II launch vehicle. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[the_prodigy]

I've always thought it would raise public interest to have a subscriber television channel broadcasting 24/7 live images from off-Earth... kinda like a Mars webcam or probably a live ISS onboard feed (although there would probably be issues with the latter). Since Google has such a high involvement in this X-Prize, I hope this leads to the YouTubing of space... believe me, there is a profound shift in perspective when you see live, up-close video of actual space exploration in progress. The closest thing we have now is NASA TV, but they only go live for shuttle launches and keep ISS video feeds private from the general public except for selected recordings. I know there was once a time when the average citizen could listen in on trans-atmospheric communications, eg. the anecdote of the South African truck driver who had a CB radio conversation with an American astronaut in low orbit, and refused to believe that the guy he was talking to was actually a few miles above his head at that very moment. I'd love to have that feeling of public participation return to the space program.

 

[soyuztma]

There is allready a team that is planning to compete: a Carnegie Mellon team lead by robotics expert Whittaker.<br /> Robotics Team Will Pursue $20M Prize<br />I have no doubt these guys can build a small lunar rover, and if they can cooperate with a university team that has build small sats, these guys could be the big favorite. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[windnwar]

I guess the question is, how light can you build the lander/landing sytem? If Spacex Falcon 1E is ready in 2009 as they say and meets its projected specs, it looks like it should have a payload of somewhere around 300kilos for $8.9mil if i'm reading their charts right. Now whether you can build a lander in that weight class and meet the objectives... I don't know. Not to mention it still might be cheaper to hitch a ride with something else as a secondary payload. <br /><br />But it's a potentially cheap method. I'm thinking it probably would need more payload capacity though. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font size="2" color="#0000ff">""Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." --Albert Einstein"</font></p> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

"I guess the question is, how light can you build the lander/landing sytem? If Spacex Falcon 1E is ready in 2009 as they say and meets its projected specs, it looks like it should have a payload of somewhere around 300kilos for $8.9mil if i'm reading their charts right. Now whether you can build a lander in that weight class and meet the objectives... I don't know. Not to mention it still might be cheaper to hitch a ride with something else as a secondary payload. "<br /><br />Where did you get the 300 kg from? I was of the impression that their standard Falcon 1 would be 650 kg to a circular 300 km orbit already, so who could be an enhanced Falcon 1 be less than half that payload?<br /><br />By the way for 8-9 million USD you get a ride on Rockot, PSLV or other rockets with multiple payload histories for a payload with a 500kg mass to LEO for certain.

 

[webtaz99]

Look at it from the other end. If a cheap enough (but capable) launcher is developed, it could probably lift a couple people to LEO, or a largish sat to GTO. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[the_prodigy]

If I'm not mistaken, didn't the last Mars mission cost less than today's average Hollywood blockbuster? If a movie studio can pony up $200m+ for (usually) unwatchable drek which is not always guaranteed to make a profit, then I'm sure Branson and his ilk can find a way to do a remote-controlled moonshot for half that amount... it's not about the prize money, just consider it an investment.

 

[themanwithoutapast]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>If I'm not mistaken, didn't the last Mars mission cost less than today's average Hollywood blockbuster? If a movie studio can pony up $200m+ for (usually) unwatchable drek which is not always guaranteed to make a profit, then I'm sure Branson and his ilk can find a way to do a remote-controlled moonshot for half that amount... it's not about the prize money, just consider it an investment.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Interesting, but the question remains - an investment into what exactly? A 100 million investment with the high risk that a mission is not successful needs to yield a significant return. Are you thinking of DVD sales of the launch, cruise and landing of the rover + how it drives around on the Moon? If so, I am puzzled why NASA could not make any money with this approach as of today for its Mars rovers.

 

[spacelifejunkie]

"Interesting, but the question remains - an investment into what exactly?"<br /><br /><br />I've heard this question a lot in this thread and many others. What other competition could you have? America's Space Prize will not have a winner but by 2012 we could have at least two private companies with manned orbital Capabilities. SpaceX, SpaceDev, and t/Space come to mind. With NASA giving Kistler's money to someone else, we have possibly broadened the field. I hope t/Space gets it because I think the ULA/SpaceDev joint venture may get financed on its own without COTS money.<br /><br />If the competition is not suborbital (already done) and the orbital side is taking care of itself, what else is there? A prize to send humans to the moon is a bit ambitious right now. Logically, the X-Prize Foundation has picked the right competition for the time.<br /><br />themanwithoutapast,<br /><br />To answer your question, a brand new lunar architecture with a new lunar lander (I see Armadillo all over this) is simply the foundation for Bigelow's, Musk's, and others' aspirations beyond LEO. In the year 2025, we'll look back at Sept.13, 2007 as a day that helped kickstart lunar tourism and affordable scientific research.<br /><br />Immediate (<10 years) return on investment? Maybe not. But we are seeing more money flowing into private aerospace now than ever before with no end in sight. I don't know the exact market trends but I do believe this competition will attract investors because we are seeing a surge of interest in this area like never before. If Google wants a piece of it, there are others for sure.<br /><br />SLJ