<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>You might want to include a "Never" catgory, depressing as that is....I am not being an optimist - well, maybe I am. I am assuming that (a) We don't destroy ourselves and (b) International competition will drive another space race that will make some form of breakthrough. What that is, I can't say I know.Wayne <br />Posted by drwayne</DIV></p><p>I also vote 'never'.</p><p>Not to be too depressing, but I don't have huge hopes that technology and cultural advances will save humanity from a stagnant future.</p><p>I do think the chance of a bad nuclear war sometime in the next several centuries is actually high. The result will greatly compound the pollution caused by burning off all of our fossil fuels. I do think that our overpopulating world will end up stripping off the rainforests and leave behind a depleted eroded landscape, with awful climatic effects. I also think we will have abused and depleted much of our oceanic food resources. I worry that the cultural behavior of the Chinese and other Asian countries will result in a high rtae of resource depletion with accompanying pollution. As for the population growth itself, I do think that current demographic trends indicate that we may also have a global dysgenic outcome as the more intelligent people have fewer children.</p><p>I do think that over the next several centuries that we will consume our oil, coal and even uranium not have that much to show for it. After we deplete our easy fuels, all we have left is renewable sources. The world economy will stagnate and have to run at a much lower level of production due to energy deficits.</p><p>Leaving our solar system will be extremely difficult. I doubt we will ever invent a 'warp engine'. First we will need to build a massive telescope somewhere in space (farside of the moon?) which can locate earth sized planets and get their atmospheric spectra. Second we would need to send unmanned probes to nearby stars and study liveable planets, and transmit the data back. Third, we would need to build a colony spaceship and send it there. To do this plan would take the resources of our entire planet working together for many centuries to develop the technology, and to build the telescope, the probes, the communication networks, and then the colony spaceship.</p><p>Cutlturally, I do not see a global political vision which would last for many centuries (probably millenia!) to resource and execute the plan above. Given our resource depleted future, people will be whining for food, energy and luxuries, and not want several centuries of the world gnp to be diverted to extrasolar exploration.</p><p>Finally culturally, I see bad trends ahead with the growth of global fundamentalist religious movements, particular islam, but also fundamentalist Christian too. These religions inhibit science, learning, reasoning and logic, and more importantly curiosity. I see demographic trends in which Islam will within one century take over Europe, and continue to spread elsewhere. I worry we will still be fighting religious based conflicts over the next century or two which will distract our planet's populations and resources from pursuing loftier goals. And while we are distracted by these stupidities (Israel, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc..it ihas already started, but the country list will expand to France, Netherlands, Spain, Greece, England) we will have very significantly depleted our fossil fuels and added more population and pollution.</p><p>Sorry for being so dismal.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>