Risky asteroid 2009 WM1(Nov 2009)

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

NeoDys PS for 2018 is -0.96 (was -1.02 yesterday), for 2027 -1.10 (was -1.26), 2032 -2.83 (was -2.62)

Nominal orbit CA for 2018 increased to .0843 AU and the date moved back to 11/18; node crossing nack to 11/20.

MW

 

[F111F]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

A positive asteroid impact prediction raises a few questions. Let's say the impact is predicted for my hometown in 2018.
1) What recourse do those of us who live in the impact/major effects zone have? My insurance company will rightly say this is an "act of God" and will not pay out for a loss.
2) If we have 9 years warning, is it worth the cost of trying to shift the orbit or cheaper to clean up afterwards?
3) If my land is at ground zero, is it still my land at the bottom of a crater? :?:

 

[silylene]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

By the way, in addition to 2009 WM1, the very newly discovered asteroid 2009 WR52 has a 1/10,000 cumulative risk, with just 2 days of observation data (a relatively high risk, but huge error bars). 83 virtual impacts, most of the risky ones from 2031 to 2061. However this asteroid is very small (7m diameter) and would give an explosion of 'just' 10 kT, in the upper atmosphere (similar to Tunguska). We will watch this one too, and start a new thread if new observational data maintains a high risk .

 

[moreandless]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

firsttimer here...have been watching NEO posts for years, from our new bunker by the way; the thread
on 2009 WM1 has been very interesting...admiring your knowledge of orbital mechanics MW and friends
keep up the good work. I am a velikovskian from way back and think he should get more recognition
as an original thinker...science has done a great deal to vindicate his preposterous ideas, God love him.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

A positive asteroid impact prediction raises a few questions. Let's say the impact is predicted for my hometown in 2018.
1) What recourse do those of us who live in the impact/major effects zone have? My insurance company will rightly say this is an "act of God" and will not pay out for a loss.

Well a prediction for where would only be made once the impact time is refined to within a few minutes.

With an asteroid this large, there won't be enough left to worry about insurance claims. Any one that has multiple policies in the same area would go belly up for sure if they had to pay out.

2) If we have 9 years warning, is it worth the cost of trying to shift the orbit or cheaper to clean up afterwards?

That would be difficult for this asteroid. It's highly inclined orbit means it would require an inconceivably large propellant load to even get a craft near it on one of the earler passes. Also the next close approach is in 2018.

3) If my land is at ground zero, is it still my land at the bottom of a crater? :?:

Oh, yeah

 

[Shpaget]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Look at the bright side. If it hits your land, chances are that local land-registry is going to be obliterated as well, so you can claim anything as long as you make sure your neighbors were vaporized :lol:

 

[R1]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Is the new infrared scope that is about to start running supposed to help determine the orbits of these
things much sooner ?

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

New solutions in.

2009 WM1 NEODyS 1606 Nov. 26 2018-2090 157 3.15e-04 -0.70 -0.96 1 Based on 58 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2009/11/17.465 to 2009/11/25.488.
JPL Sentry 2001 Nov. 25 2018-2109 145 2.8e-04 -0.76 -0.99 1 Analysis based on 55 observations spanning 7.0047 days (2009-Nov-17.4641 to 2009-Nov-24.4688). Diameter approximately 0.280 km. from mean, weighted H=20.4.

 

[Vigelic]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

New solutions in.

2009 WM1 NEODyS 1606 Nov. 26 2018-2090 157 3.15e-04 -0.70 -0.96 1 Based on 58 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2009/11/17.465 to 2009/11/25.488.
JPL Sentry 2001 Nov. 25 2018-2109 145 2.8e-04 -0.76 -0.99 1 Analysis based on 55 observations spanning 7.0047 days (2009-Nov-17.4641 to 2009-Nov-24.4688). Diameter approximately 0.280 km. from mean, weighted H=20.4.

so.. in english.. that would mean..?

 

[ainu7]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Today, we have 4 new obserations from Mt. Lemmon Survey.

It seems like today's possibility is significantly down, especially for 2018. I failed to get exactly same orbit as NeoDyS calculated, so result could differ a little. (not so much though)

For 2018 solution, nominal distance was up from 0.0844AU to 0.1602AU. - standard deviation is ~0.10AU
Probability down from 1.03e-4(1/9700) to 4.86e-5(1/20600), PS from -0.96 to -1.28

For 2027 solution, nominal distance was down from 0.0317AU to 0.1695AU. - std is ~0.14AU
Probability up from 1.51e-4(1/6620) to 1.38e-04(1/7240), PS from -1.10 to -1.13

2032 : PS -2.83 to -3.08, prob down to 1/490000.

total PS around -0.85(?), total prob around 1/5000(?)

After one day, threat could be diminished much quickly, as most of impact solutions are concentrated in one side of LOV, with non-small sigma.

silylene: I'm not involved anywhere relevant to asteroid search... And I think Skywatch team won't take too much attention in this object yet, because they'll need to wait only several days to see if there is remained significant threats.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Yes, it appears the threat from 2009 WM1 has peaked as expected.

Thanx ainu7 for the update.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

From the JPL Horizons Ephemeris

The two year's close approaches are nearly ientical now; whereas in previous runs they were quite different.

residuals down to .4964
2018 CA (Close Approach) .1602 AU (62 X LD) on Nov 15; Node Nov 18
2027 CA .1695 AU, Node Nov 18

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

JPL's Sentry risk page has been updated. For 2009 WM1

Cumulative PS -0.87 (1 in 4350 odds)
Highest risk is now 2027; PS -1.12 (1 in 7140)
2018; PS -1.28 (1 in 21,000)
Both are still Torino Scale 1.

2032 is dropping rapidly, now PS -3.16 (1 in 588,000), now below Apophis in risk.

 

[Solifugae]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Why am I disappointed?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Not understanding how asteroid risk works, or a death wish?

 

[robnissen]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

I know why I'm a little disappointed. If this asteroid was to land in some desolate area (the best place would probably be Antartica), it would put on the greatest fireworks display of all time. If it was much bigger, there really wouldn't be a safe place for it to land, but as long as it stays out of the ocean or any populated place, there should be little or no loss of human life (especially if its impact area was accurately known). Plus, there would probably be very large pieces that could be collected after the impact, for a great amount of scientific value. Now don't get me wrong, overall it is a good thing that the risk is going down. But it certainly makes sense to me for someone to feel a little ambivalent about the risk decreasing. I can tell you one thing, I would have had the impact date marked on my calender for the next 50 years, or whenever it was due to impact.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

9 or 18 years

 

[Solifugae]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

On the one hand: I don't want people to die, and life is fun, but on the other hand: it isn't quite extreme enough. It'd be fun to shake things up a little with a nice little asteroid impact. In other words, I wanna eat smoldering mud in a post-apocalyptic hell-hole.

 

[Jerromy]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

I wanna eat smoldering mud in a post-apocalyptic hell-hole.

Mmmm, sounds yummy. Can I get a side of solar tsunami with that?

 

[csmyth3025]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

It occurs to me that a significant number of close approaches have been discovered "after the fact" in the past few years. I'm not a doomsayer, but I wonder if anyone has calculated the probability that a large (regionally devastating) impact may come from an object we didn't see coming beforehand. The possibility that such an event might occur without warning, if considered in the light of the potential harm to our global economy and our ecosystem in general, would seem to justify greater attention by the agencies funding the search for NEO's.
That said, I also wonder if our leaders have taken a fatalistic view of the situation and concluded that sooner or later we're going to be hit by a sizable object and there's just nothing we can do about it.

Chris

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

In general, only small objects (< 50 meters) have been discovered after a close approach in the last few years. Of course there can alway be a surprise, especially for an object coming out of the sun side direction. Larger ones would hopefully have been found before they went inside the earth's orbit.

In fact, the Palermo scale is the risk compared to the background risk, so back when 2009 WM1 was at -1, the risk from that particular asteroid was 10 times lss than the background risk.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Now 67 observations over a 10 day arc and the risk is falling rapidly. 2009 WM1 has now fallen to second place in risk , even for the 2027 virtual impactor, behind 1999RQ36 (101955) for year 2169.

The 2027 Palermo scale is -1.76 with close approach of .2896 AU Nov 8, nodal crossing Nov 14.

The 2018 impact is way down to PS -2.50 with close approach .2225 AU Nov 11, nodal crossing Nov 16.

The 2032 impact has been replaced by 2031 with a very low PS of -4.59

The E Moid is down to 0.00041 AU, but the position along the orbit continues to increase away from an earth impact.

It's possible this object may disappear from the risk list within a few days as was suggested earlier, although the low distance between the orbits may keep it on the list for quite a while.

 

[ainu7]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

Yes, the orbit seems to be refined rapidly, with most impact risks moving out from error zone.

All two days of observations came from Mt. Lemmon Survey, and historically their observations were accurate than other observatories(you can check http://unicorn.eis.uva.es/neodys/index.php?pc=2.1.0&o=G96), so error zone could be smaller than indicated in the risk page.

But.... If their observations had some unexpected structural bias, one more day of observation could reverse this downward trend. In Apophis case, when prediscovery observations ruled out 2029 earth impact, the observations had large bias induced from timing problem. They were corrected in months, but orbit of Apophis moved +6 sigma to earth. If their observations were reported initially without bias, I think impact probability would top 1/10 or so. - If it's the case, error zone is larger indicated than in the risk page.

This is one of the reason I don't believe in the exact risk evaluated. We'll need to wait one more day to see all risks gone. (probably with more observations from other observatories)

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

It is pretty interesting to see which observatories are contributing the observations each day. 2009 WM1 is now rapidly falling south of the ecliptic (already dec -27, in the constellation Antlia). Not sure how the Dec 2 Full Moon will affect the abilty to make observations of such a faint object.

 

[R1]

Re: Risky asteroid 2009 WM1

How can background risk be determined if people had a hard time determining the odds and
orbit of WM1?


What is background risk? Risk of other well known asteroids in the solar system ? Or is it the risk
of that which is unknown ?