STS-114 Mission Update Thread

[najab]

Actually, the models are strangely in agreement on this one. That worries me.

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Thanks and Damn!! <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /><br /><br />When will we know better?

 

[drwayne]

"First off, tropical cyclone predictions are next to useless more than about 48 hours out, the models diverge very widely, and it's hard to know which is the most accurate from storm to storm. Second, the model only tracks the eye of the storm. A good sized Hurricane can have 74 knot winds out 100 miles either side of the centre, and 35 knot winds out 200 miles or more on either side."<br /><br />Bingo. On both points.<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

"Actually, the models are strangely in agreement on this one."<br /><br />I suspect there has been some tweaking of the models in the last year or so that would tend to make them agree a little better.<br /><br />They also seem to have stopped putting in some of the wilder varying models in these plots.<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[shuttle_rtf]

So that model is bad news for the Shuttle? Just to be clear. <br /><br />Sorry about the questions...we once had a strong breeze here and it made the news <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[drwayne]

Its too early to tell really. Its a possibility that I am sure the NASA folks are planning for.<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[najab]

Anyway, until there's some impact on STS-114, let's discuss this on the "Forces of Nature" forum. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Agreed. I'm terrible for off-topic stuff <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />I'll only post on here if I get more from the two MLP guys etc.

 

[bpcooper]

Forecast dicussion indicates less than 1% chance of it hitting Florida/East Florida. Almost certainly heading into the gulf. <br /><br />Of course they are discussing it, but I am willing to bet they aren't rolling. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>-Ben</p> </div>

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Just in from an MLP guy I know at KSC: <br /><br /> />wanted to let you know we're connecting ordnance tonight and after P.I.C. test will be performing final closeouts on S.T.S.,.. so they're pressing on for next weeks launch date. Course, if that wind (Dennis) turns into hurricane, and heads for center of state, or east coast, we will probably bust up all the closeouts and disconnect all explosives for roolback probably Fri. <

 

[ozspace]

I am certain most of the world would have no idea of the various dramas, twists and factors involved in sending this vehicle up. This forum is like tuning in to a long running soap opera (in a positive way).<br />Just think of all the hoops and hurdles we have 'experienced' here...(in no paricular oder):<br /><br />CAIB<br />Stafford Covey<br />TPS repair options<br />ET damaged?<br />foam<br />ice<br />slush<br />roll over<br />stacking (2)<br />roll out (2)<br />bellows<br />Tanking test (2)<br />diffuser <br />OMS fire?<br />SCO sensors <br />TCDT<br />roll back<br />tank swap <br />Ku-band TV antenna clearance?<br />wheel well cracks?<br />SSME contamination?<br />FRR<br />DVR<br />storms<br /><br />Just off the top of my head, but I am sure some of these words bring back memories of late nights over a computer screen for you.<br /><br />Go Discovery! We need to get flying again!<br /><br />Hey, L-1 week!<br />

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Dennis has now officially become a concern to NASA.<br /><br />AP Wire's gone large on a rollback possibility and NASA officials are on quote.<br /><br />Floriday Today's top story says rollback decision tomorrow, launch date meeting<br /><br />http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050706/BREAKINGNEWS/50706001<br /><br />NASA Quote:<br /><br />"We’re definitely watching it," said space shuttle forecaster Kathy Winters, a civilian who works in Cape Canaveral for the 45th Weather Squadron."<br /><br />Weather sites are saying 115mph Hurricane at the moment, still heading west of Florida, but the 'bubble' is still in the danger area.<br /><br />

 

[shuttle_rtf]

http://www.tampabays10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=15695

 

[drwayne]

Note that the track you posted has it hitting us just about dead bang on.<br /><br />I imagine the directives there at the cape are to review your sheets for what you need to do for a rollback, and be ready to do it if needed. Otherwise, keep going like normal. That way, whatever needs to be done can be done smoothly and professionally, with minimum rsik to the ship and to personnel tending it.<br /><br />Thats what I would be telling my people anyway. (Which is why they keep me safely buried here in a lab)<br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[henryhallam]

How quickly do hurricanes / tropical storms peter out once they reach dry land?

 

[drwayne]

Well, from a wind perspective, pretty quickly. Although, having lived previously in Huntsville for years, I can tell you that they have a way of triggering tornados, even well inland.<br /><br />Rain can last quite a ways inland. We were living in Hunstville when Camille (category 5) hit, and we got some really bad flooding there.<br /><br />Last year, Ivan was triggering tornadoes well up into Alabama and Georgia.<br /><br />Wayne<br /><br />p.s. I am making those initial mental preperations to evacuate. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[shuttle_rtf]

How much wind (in MPH) can the launch pad take with a Shuttle? When does it become a case of getting the Shuttle off the pad? <br /><br />I know the Orbiter's pretty well tucked up inside the RSS, but what comes to mind is the exposed ET and SRBs. Does the ET foam have a certain tolerance to wind gusts?<br /><br />I know this is not yet a threat!!! - But I like to know these facts and figures <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[najab]

I wanted to post this right after the FRR, but I was having all sorts of net problems. Oh well, I waited two-and-a-half years, so what's a few more hours. <br /><br />Anyway, here we are. It's been a <b>lonnng</b> time in coming, but Space Shuttle <i>Discovery</i> is finally set to launch on July 13th from launchpad 39-B of the Kennedy Space Center on a mission to the International Space Station. Commanded by Eileen Collins and Pilot James Kelly, the international crew of Charles Camarda, Wendy Lawrence, Soichi Noguchi of JAXA, Stephen Robinson and Andrew Thomas will spend 11 days in space, including 8 days docked to the ISS, where they will replace a balky gyroscope, deliver several tons of cargo and test techniques for repairing damage to the Orbiter's Thermal Protection System (TPS).<br /><br />This thread is for ongoing discussion of the pre-launch, launch, on orbit operations <b>and</b> landing of Space Shuttle mission STS-114.

 

[najab]

I *think* it's about 60mph max on the pad.

 

[rvastro]

I am not looking forward to seeing what happens when it gets into the Gulf. I remember last year when Charley gained wind speed before landfall. <br />One major fact we learned with that storm--don't pay attention to the center line on the predicted track-the storm can go anywhere in that cross hatched region.

 

[shuttle_rtf]

I suppose the next 12-24 hours is the first thing to watch:<br /><br /> />"As we track this out, I'll tell you that it will move to the north-northwest to begin with," Mowry said. "Then as it heads toward western Cuba, there is a little uncertainty on the path it will take. It may curve to the north and head to Florida or it may take a westbound course and head toward Texas. That's the big question now."<

 

[Testing]

FROM NHC advisory #7<br />THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN<br />BRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.<br /><br />THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT SHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS<br />EXPECTED. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[drwayne]

God, my brain is fried. Low pressure becomes a contaminant issue?<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[backspace]

Uh Oh...<br /><br />Sounds like SG is gonna be busy. Can someone explain the possible ramifications of this?

 

[Testing]

I could be way wrong here but you would still have boiloff at 75% so I would guess not contamination. Structural issue on tank? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>