Over the years, my desires regarding space exploration have changed. I used to think that building a base on the moon was the most important thing that NASA could do.
Today, I see it this way. There are various goals, to work towards, areas which need improvement, and basic science to enable learning. I consider space exploration to be essential to the survival of the United States, worthy of investment on the order of 50 billion dollars a year. With that, I would begin work in three different regimes;
1,) Earth to orbit
2.) zero gravity
3.) Celestial body exploration
1. Getting from Earth to the other side of the atmosphere is the hardest, most dangerous part of space exploration. Because payloads and passengers must be accelerated from a standing start to 17,500 miles per hour, or 5 miles per SECOND, the energies involved are enormous. We have established how to do this, but we have yet to develop a cheap, easy, and safe way to get into space. This holds up all other advancement in human space exploration. Developing a reusable spacecraft to carry 10 to 15 people to Low Earth Orbit, and return to land on a runway at the launch point, is the single most important goal facing humanity right now. Learning how to do so will make all other off-planet activities easier to accomplish, by making it possible to get people into the space environment easily, routinely, and safely. Until such a system is developed, I would continue flying the space shuttle. I would stop development by NASA of all other launch systems, leaving that to the private sector.
2. What is going to make space exploration a reasonable investment will be profits made from processing materials in zero gravity. We have no idea what is possible in that environment, and learning how to support people in space is essential to any of our plans. It will take people who have spent time in zero g to engineer properly for it, people who have worked in that environment to know what methods are best to try first, and people who can conduct their experiments in person to make the breakthroughs. This means creating and maintaining space stations, servicing them, supplying them, and learning how to make them as self-sufficient as possible. Some of this knowledge will be useful for developing deep space probe ships, where the crews will be in a zero g environment for months, maybe even years at a time. But we will have to build ships and test them with long duration voyages to know for sure.
3. To get the materials that will be processed in the zero gravity factories will require traveling to many different places. The most likely place to start is the closest place, the Moon. But asteroids also may supply raw materials Examining them may be some of the first voyages of long-duration ships. Returning to the Moon will entail developing a shuttle vehicle which can land there and return to Earth orbit, over and over again. Once NASA has perfected this spacecraft, the design should be given to private contractors willing to build and operate them, so that NASA can turn its attention to developing the tools needed to explore other planets. Rovers, portable habitats, and excavating equipment will have to created and tested. A beach head will have to be established, a dug-in, permanent facility that can be used for staging expeditions to various parts of the Moon, which will be dispatched by sub-orbital shuttles.
Establishing a network of relay satellites around Mars would allow the control of several mobile robots at the same time, perhaps with an orbiting supercomputer providing on the spot processing power. This network will also be of use for the first human explorers of Mars, when they arrive.
Space exploration is expensive, and will remain so for some time. If we are going to establish ourselves beyond the confines of this planet, ways to make money in space are going to have to be found. Otherwise, we will see a few brief missions to a couple of places, and then support for space exploration will cease.