First contact with aliens could end in colonization and genocide if we don't learn from history

[Unclear Engineer]

People are not good at thinking about low probability for events.

There really is no logic to the idea that if something is possible, it must have happened in x number of years.

I think we already know that the local stars are not teaming with planets hosting technological societies at a time when their radio transmissions would be reaching Earth now.

But, frankly, that is all we know.

We don't know if it is impossible to travel between stars, or if we just have not learned enough to do it, yet. So, if it is possible, we don't know what limitations it may have on distance, speed, etc., to compute how probable it is that some other technological beings are able to get from wherever they evolved to here by now.

Yes, a lot can happen in billions of years. But, some things apparently take many billions of years to happen. So not everything that is possible must have happened already - especially when you ask about a particular planet in a particular galaxy at a particular time. It took us 13.8 billion years just to get to where we are now. Somebody somewhere must be the first - and maybe that is us. Hard to put a probability on that with any credibility.

 

[Coinneach]

They say that your taste in sci-fi reflects your personality. I have the impression that how you envisage aliens does too.

 

[Gibsense]

There really is no logic to the idea that if something is possible, it must have happened in x number of years.

True statement however is it not an issue of probability? 13.8 billion years worth compared to max 4 billion for us. We managed to get to the moon in under 4 billion years. A factor o more than 3X advantage.

 

[Dave]

It is said there are two kinds of people in the world, those who see the glass half empty or half full. A more advanced lifeform observing us is no threat. Based on credible witness testimony they have never behaved in a hostile manner. If a race was hostile in any way they would not allow an ideology based on individual freedom and personal choice. Listen, make no mistake we have an enemy. We are and continue to be our own worst enemy. Back to back world wars proved that. What we really need to do is, act more human. We are one race, the human race.

 

[Gibsense]

they have never behaved in a hostile manner

Just taken specimens against a human's will. Just abducted people adlib. Just arrogantly displayed dominant ability.
None of the above may be factual but it is consistent with your comments of testimony. Equally conjecture regarding the bleeding of cattle is often cited. If we believe the propaganda even the US government is becoming concerned.

Maybe it's for 'our own good'

 

[Unclear Engineer]

True statement however is it not an issue of probability? 13.8 billion years worth compared to max 4 billion for us. We managed to get to the moon in under 4 billion years. A factor o more than 3X advantage.

We started 13.8 billion years ago, just like everybody else in the universe (if you believe the BBT). For all we know, it took the evolution of the chemistry in the universe 9.8 billion years to get to where it supported the development of life on Earth. Probably not exactly that long, but assuming that somebody else had multiple billions of years head start on us is not necessarily factual. A lot of complexity needed to evolve to get to where we are, now.

Similarly, there is no logic to the extrapolation into the future for distance we can travel in space, today. Technological advancement is not a smooth curve, and may very well have technological limits. Extrapolating gains in knowledge of new physics is even less credible.

For instance, if you extrapolate 4 billion years to get to the Moon using a linear hypothesis, we would not get to Mars for another 140 million miles / (0.250 million miles / 4 billion years) = 2.24 trillion years. Clearly, we can beat that. So, progress has definitely not been linear, recently. But, picking any smooth function is just silly - progress is not a smooth curve. And, it is not necessarily always increasing - there may be a peak and a crash.

And, betting that past history can be extrapolated to predict the future doesn't work well when you are trying to predict when something that is unknown will become known.

Regarding probability of technological societies, we have only one data point so far, which is one technological society per galaxy - us in the Milky Way. For all we know, we could be the only one in the whole universe - or there could be thousands here in our modest galaxy. We just don't know, and have not way to make a credible guess on the basis of current factual knowledge.

It will help a lot if we discover that life seems to evolve frequently in all sorts of environments, such as Mars, moons of Jupiter and Saturn, etc. Then the question wouldn't involve a low probability of life, and would be more focused on evolution of intelligence, awareness and technology - and longevity of technological societies. Who knows, we humans might not even be able to get to our Moon in a few hundred years. Some humans are even predicting that we will be extinct by then.

 

[Questioner]

A million years is almost nothing compared to 5 or 10 billion.

The idea that we are the very first technological species/evolution is wildly improbable.

Which raises questions.

Are technologically advanced societies [generally] short lived?

Is reasonable interstellar travel and communication simply insurmountable?

What are some reasons why possible visiting &/or observing ETs aren't forthcoming?

 

[Gibsense]

We started 13.8 billion years ago, just like everybody else in the universe (if you believe the BBT). For all we know, it took the evolution of the chemistry in the universe 9.8 billion years to get to where it supported the development of life on Earth.

A more sensible approach is to consider the "evolutionary time" from the establishment of a planetary system. In our case 4 billion years or so. The James Webb telescope has found developed galaxies about 13.5 billion years old. I am comfortable with the idea that many planetary systems would be existing, say, 13 billion years ago.

We are talking old galaxies and therefore very many planets. So the opportunity to develop intelligence elsewhere is 3x the period we have taken. The counter-argument would be that we need to know how long our galaxy has been around. That may reduce the factor somewhat.

I suppose we could even suggest that the development of intelligence is a factor contributing to the end of life in a system - or more accurately the development of intelligent life with fingers

 

[Gibsense]

A million years is almost nothing compared to 5 or 10 billion.

Yes, we have had a few false starts. Compare 1 million to 13.5 billion (to develop fingers

 

[Gibsense]

What are some reasons why possible visiting &/or observing ETs aren't forthcoming?

We should consider what sort of life they may be. As someone pointed out it would be much easier for AI robotic life to travel interstellar - either on its own account or in lieu of biology. I guess it is likely that most sightings (if physically real) are robots.

That thought gives rise to alternative motivations:

They may be trying to understand their origin in biological life and monitor the transition to AI that is occurring on Earth

They may be used to research before occupation

They may be obtaining data to enable genetic modification for a more suitable life on Earth for themselves

They may be competing with many other civilisations for alliance with Earth and are already engaged with the USA

They may fear our rapid advancement and irresponsibility and not be able to differentiate between fact and fiction in our films and are considering how to eliminate us after previous failures

They may be Indigenous having evolved a billion years ago on Earth and consider us natural fauna worth harvesting

They may select those about to die natural deaths for use as biological slaves or to act as ambassadors in research of locals

They may have a shortage of souls to allocate to newly built robots

They may be a figment of our imagination trying to become real

They may be programmed in for a bit of fun (we are a simulation scenario)

All of the above would not suggest a "Hello guys, how are you doing?" approach to be a good option

 

[Gibsense]

there is no logic to the extrapolation into the future for distance we can travel in space, today. Technological advancement is not a smooth curve, and may very well have technological limits. Extrapolating gains in knowledge of new physics is even less credible.

Yes, increasing 'speed' as a strategy is limited if physical transfer to a destination is the objective. Macro Entanglement research perhaps. Or as per Sci-Fi, conning some other civilisation to build you. Or slipping into an extra dimension to get a shortcut. Or that other thing, you know, that thingymajig.

 

[Questioner]

They may be a figment of our imagination trying to become real

I like that.
It's a real mind bender.

Quite possibly the hallmark of humanity is refined confectioned imaginations.

We confabulate ideas & concepts and sometimes contrive technologies out of our imaginations.

Applied imagination along with obsessive imaginations.

I wonder if much paranormal activities stem from things that exist tenaciously in imagination space.

 

[promytius]

Aliens have known about Earth for millennia. They come and go as they please; they take whatever they want. They've instructed us on how to behave. No one should put any thought into what to do if/when they go full public; they will totally control everything. However, since we are an old story to them, I'm not worried at all. To them, we're like one of those stands in a farmer's front yard, loaded with produce and a "Help Yourself" painted on an old board; or maybe just the flies attracted to the stand. But there's no worries.

 

[promytius]

I looked that up, and the Gaia concept is tied to religion, and the concept of Earth as a living organism; as far as I understand it, the concept of a supreme being or omnipotent entity is entirely unnecessary in formulating, defining, embellishing, refining or explaining any quantum process, or universe; therefore I'm not setting a place for it at the physics table. As for Earth being sentient, that's a delightful fantasy, and many stories have been wonderfully told about the myths of Gaia. Personally, I think tying to make Earth a living entity is to insult its true nature; it is a physical mass of such proportions and chemistry that life is supported above, on, and below its surface. That doesn't make it alive.
I cannot connect Gaia philosophy to the alien reality. I am warmer to considering other phenomena as having a possible alien origin, such as instances that people report as "paranormal", sounds without sources, apparitions, visions, and so on. Likewise, I'm not saying that is the explanation; it's just that aliens, as explanations for multiple anomalies, are far more logical than the fantastical energies alleged to be in play.
What I do feel is a mild sense of being left out of a much bigger awareness. Mild because I was an avid science fiction reader since the early 50s - The Ant Men, by Eric North, was my first Si Fi read - and I stopped about 50 years later, so I've lived among the aliens for half a century, and have hung up my communicator. What the best ones did was take science and embellish it, challenge it, and provide it with unique ideas. In a good portion of the stories, there were always aliens - all sorts - and our culture has a large fan base for science fiction. I mention all this, as it reminds me of the notion of alien total control, that they are gradually indoctrinating us for public contact, somewhere down the road; they make movies and books and websites, and have replaced people with clones, and other notions, such as a list of races (over 60), a printed list of aliens in our military, etc. I have no personal knowledge of these 'control' notions being facts.
While seeking the facts, it is always good to listen to the fantastical ideas as well, to keep a fresh perspective, and an open mind.

But: as C. K. Chesterton said, "Do not be so open-minded that your brains fall out."

 

[Gibsense]

But: as C. K. Chesterton said, "Do not be so open-minded that your brains fall out."

Haha, great quote. But, you dismiss Gaia too quickly maybe. Consider:

Early in evolution single-cell animals eventually cooperate to form a multicell animal. Which is the life, the single cell or the multicell or both? After you die many of your cells attempt to continue doing their thing. Are they dead whilst persisting?
In the wild, a group of trees (a wood) throw seeds depending on the prevailing wind. Over time the wood extends itself in one direction whilst in the other trees may fail through disease or wind etc. As a timeless observer, you would see the wood creep across the landscape. Could the collective wood be alive - as well as the trees?

You can see the principle and the doubt

 

[Unclear Engineer]

The other quote about an open mind is that "Like anything else left open and unattended, the tourists will fill it with trash - so if you keep an open mind, you must remember to dispose of the trash that others put in."

 

[Pogo]

I think when we meet an alien civilization, we need to ask to see their science fiction movies, especially ones involving Earth.

 

[promytius]

Great quotes - Gibsense, you asked about my death and its interactions with other parts that haven't stopped their individual functioning, I reply that it is out of the range of possibilities, for when I die, the entire Universe ends.

 

[COLGeek]

Which tourists, what trash? Please justify that statement.

I get what UE was sharing. Tourists as in those not educated on a topic. Trash like the unfounded beliefs that people form via popular press, social media, crackpot websites, etc.

So learn something. Study. Get educated on a subject. That sort of thing to for a (better) well-founded position.

My words, not UE's.

 

[COLGeek]

Your words, not his as you say. Apply that to what I have written here - for instance am I a tourist, and have I written trash?, if so what trash have I written?

I wasn't referring to anything you posted, just my interpretation of the quotation and its application to the overall previous discussion.

 

[COLGeek]

Why did you not wait to see what UE's thoughts are?

Because I don't have to, nor does any member. That is the nature of a public forum, all are allowed to comment on topics.

 

[COLGeek]

That is very vague. So, for the record, do you consider that anything I have posted on this thread is "trash"

Not vague at all, as stated earlier, a general comment. Not directed at you or any particular member. Now do you understand? Trash? No.

 

[Gibsense]

I mentioned a passing planet some time ago, it passed within our Ort Cloud - about 1 light-year away 70,000 years ago. This is not an uncommon occurrence. In about 1 million years if you feel like hitching a lift there will be another close pass.

 

[Unclear Engineer]

As I return to this thread, it seems that during my absence there was some sort of argument between "Here's my thoughts" and "COLGeek" about my intentions with the quote I posted about needing to throw out trash deposited by tourists in things left open, including minds. But, at this point, I only see "COLGeek's" replies and some parts of "Here's my thoughts" posts that COLGEEK quoted. I am guessing that "Here's my thoughts" took offense and deleted his posts.

So, I am not going to try to respond to half of an argument, other than to say I was not intending to target "Here's my thoughts" with my post.

The quote I posted is from the 1960s and I don't even remember who said it. But, it does appear to be true enough. I try to listen to what others are saying, even if I don't agree. Occasionally, it changes my mind. But, I do see a lot of unsupported opinions getting stated as facts, and those are not at all persuasive.

 

[COLGeek]

No argument. Just a lack of understanding and communication.