<p>As a weather geek for 50 years, any hurricane forecast 7 days out is just about worthless.</p><p>The important thing is to just pay attention as it develops. The NHC did a very good job with the 5 day forecast on Gustav, for Hanna, not so much.</p><p>If the track at 3 days in advance still points to the Florida east coast, then it's time to take action.</p><p>In fact, Ike ain't lookin' so good right now, the shear seems to be weakening it quite a bit.</p><p>And remember IIRC, Andrew was only a cat 1 hurricane as it crossed the Bahamas, yet was cat 5 by the time it hit Florida.</p><p>They be unpredictable! Especially intensity.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>