opinions on the state of Aerospace

spacefire · Aug 21, 2005

Howdy folks These are turbulent times for the space industry. At least for the present, NASA is clinging to the shuttle even though the so called RTF showed the issues that destroyed Columbia with loss of crew have not yet been entirely resolved. At the same time, the decision to has been taken to proceed to the Moon (Mars remains a faraway goal, seldom mentioned now), pushed by a president desperate to win a close race for the second term. This VSE is to be accomplished using bits and pieces from the STS system, that is, on the cheapo. Russia is planning to build a logical succesor to its Soyuz capsules, probably hoping to be able to carry more people for money to the ISS. Europe seems to have no plans for manned space exploration by themselves, but is envisaging closer ties with the Russians. The ISS remains unfinished and, since it needs the Shuttle to lift and attach the remaining modules and support a larger crew, will probably stay the same until it is completely abandoned. I am surprised many people on this board are getting upset when the Shuttle is criticized, and I am even more surprised that so many support the VSE which so far appears to be an attempt to relive the glory of the Apollo era, without much technological or scientific reasoning behind it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

frodo1008 · Aug 22, 2005

It is not reasonable criticism of the current systems that bothers people like me. It is the short and very sarcastic posts that some on this forum (like yourself) use against the efforts of NASA and others such as SG. Those of us who support the shuttle are very well aware of its faults and failures, are those who are against the shuttle equally aware of its successes and triumphs? Just for one (and probably the most famous) the Hubble would just be another piece of floating space junk if it wasn't for the shuttle. I find it somewhat ironic that some of the shuttles greatest foes would like to see it used for at least one more Hubble repair mission! People really can't have it both ways, you know. My ony real problem with NASA right now is its extreme and unnesessary caution towards shuttle launches. We are only going to launch the shuttle to the relative safe harbor of the ISS at this time. If the tiles are damaged (and whether the shuttle launches at night or not, the tiles can still be inspected at the ISS itself). then either they can be repaired at the ISS, or that particular shuttle can be abandoned and the paople held at the ISS untill either another shuttle can rescue them or enough soyuz capsules can be sent up for a rescue, or even a combination of both. Heck, the damaged shutttle may not be able to come back to Earth, but it could certainly be used for more room for the ISS in the meantime! NASA now says that it isn't going to fly another shuttle until at least next March. There are a lot of people here going around saying that we can't possibly finish the ISS before the shuttles retirement, if NASA holds off that long on the next flight. To me that just in't so, there are still almost five more years before the end of 2010 to finish the ISS. I really don't see this as a problem PROVIDED that NASA stops goofing around and gets the job done! One other main reason for keeping the shuttle flying is to be able t

spacester · Aug 22, 2005

Nice post frodo! To add to those comments . . . It would seem that NASA's back is up against the wall. It's put up or shut up time. They've been able to "embrace the concept" of "schedule pressure", which is to say, they've been ducking the basic conflict. Mike Griffin said it in the pre-launch press conference. The STS is still an experimental test program, even after all these years. Yet it is expected to accomplish an operational mission (ISS construction). There is an inherent conflict there that no one can do anything about. Or can they? There is only one reason why I agree with the March launch decision: Mike says so. That's good enough for me at this point. I think he thinks that he needs the time to make the agency his own, take control, get it pointed in the right direction and producing. In particular, he's going to be the lead tiger in the next tiger team on the ET. I would anticipate the following plan: Give the ET foam issue the Mike treatment and launch in March. If the problem remains, convert to unmanned missions and appeal to Congress for a Soyuz solution. But with the final push, the foam problem will begin a series of launches with completely acceptable levels of tile damage. Those launches will continue after the RTF rules are dropped (no more "rescue missions on the pad"). If the foam problem re-occurs, two major things happen: One, get the crew home - possibly have Commander and Pilot bring her down while the rest stay at ISS. Two, convert to unmanned launch until that problem is eliminated. Geting the crew home will be a combination of safe haven / overcrowding and extra Soyuz launches. All of which means that if someone actually came up with private orbital vehicles in the next 3-4 years, they could stand ready with contracts to rescue or even regularly transport Shuttle crews as required. Which is why t/space gets their fun <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

halman · Aug 22, 2005

spacefire, I doubt seriously that President Bush has any idea why he was advised to Do Something about the space program. But I believe that the powers that put him where he is are getting very concerned about the future. These powers do not want the United States to fall into decline (a little late on that one, I am afraid,) due to a lack of scientific and technological ability. The fact of the matter is, the number of American graduates from engineering and scientific programs is at an all-time low. At the same time that the military is planning for a weapons system which does not include very many soldiers on the ground, the kinds of people needed to create such systems all have home addresses in other countries. (The military's knee-jerk response? Teach screenwriting to scientists in the hopes that The Matrix will meet Jurassic Park and have lots of little scientists.) Microsoft is screaming to let more foreign nationals have green cards, because the American couch potato is not cutting it at writing modern code. If the engineering and technical jobs are outsourced, there will be no money to buy the products of the American companies in America. America fall down go 'boom.' Mars was included in the Vision for Space Exploration to make the tent as big as possible, even though the majority of space scientists believe that any manned landings of the Red Planet are decades away. Anyone who follows these boards knows that space enthusiasts generally fall into two camps, those who believe that Mars is heaven, and those who think that it is just another planet. Including Mars also sets our sights on something new, (although doing just about anything sustainable in space would be new,) to avoid the "We have already been there," critics. (Do they expect that we will have finished with Mars after two or three landings?) You mention that Europe has no plans for its own manned space program, instead fostering closer ties with R <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

shuttle_rtf · Aug 22, 2005

>NASA is clinging to the shuttle even though the so called RTF showed the issues that destroyed Columbia with loss of crew have not yet been entirely resolved.< You mean being able to examine the TPS for damage? No mate, they've got that now, you're mistaken. If you mean "Foam is still coming off" - always has, always will. Columbia was lost because no one knew she had a breach in her left wing's RCC. That won't happen again, lesson learned.

spacefire · Aug 22, 2005

thank you every one for taking time to reply to this post. It is not the purpose of the VSE that I am against, but the way we go about doing it. The desire seems to be to minimize the technological investment into the program. I am afraid that NASA will get what they paid for. As for the Shuttle, I'm afraid nothing can be done to improve the vehicle. First of all, if a large piece of foam falls on the LE of the wing, I doubt astronauts in space will be able to restore the integrity of such a critical area of the spacecraft, which is NOT flat like the bottom surface of the orbiter. Since the foam-falling issue was not resolved, I think the decision to ground the space shuttle is justified. however, a spacecraft that sits on the ground for years at a time is no use. Therefore, I believe the Shuttle should be canned immediately. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

vt_hokie · Aug 22, 2005

"At the same time that the military is planning for a weapons system which does not include very many soldiers on the ground, the kinds of people needed to create such systems all have home addresses in other countries. (The military's knee-jerk response? Teach screenwriting to scientists in the hopes that The Matrix will meet Jurassic Park and have lots of little scientists.) Microsoft is screaming to let more foreign nationals have green cards, because the American couch potato is not cutting it at writing modern code. If the engineering and technical jobs are outsourced, there will be no money to buy the products of the American companies in America. America fall down go 'boom.'" Want more people to go into science and engineering? Pay them well and treat them like professionals. Personally, I don't think I can afford to stay in engineering. As it is, first time home buyers, like myself, are practically locked out of the real estate market. I just got my first raise in years...a whopping 4%! Hey, I'll take what I can get, but just a couple of weeks later, I learned that my rent is going up almost 10%! Look at the price of everything....medical benefits, fuel and energy, etc...the middle class is losing ground fast! My grandfather on my dad's side had a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Columbia, and worked for Grumman on Long Island for his entire career (with some stints in Fort Worth at General Dynamics working on the F-111, but still as a Grumman employee). He passed away in 1999, but my grandmother still lives in their house in Huntington. Back then, he could buy a nice house there on an engineer's salary. Now, practically no engineer could afford to buy into that neighborhood...I guess maybe it's largely doctors, lawyers, and investment bankers these days! I don't know how to get out of my current rut, aside from maybe pursuing an MBA and getting away from engineering. I had start

spacefire · Aug 22, 2005

I agree with you it's pretty sad and America is running out of trained engineers fast. Which, on the bright side, means that you will be able to set your terms in the near future when your skills will be in high demand. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

vt_hokie · Aug 22, 2005

If I stay with Loral (haha...yeah right!), maybe I can ask Bernie Schwartz to give me some more worthless stock options! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> And they expect people to invest in the "new" Loral, still under the leadership of this genius? Fool me once... http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050725/nym202.html?.v=16 "Loral's existing common and preferred stock will be cancelled and no distribution will be made to the holders of such stock."

vt_hokie · Aug 22, 2005

Here's a good opinion piece written by Dr. Griffin regarding the future of the space shuttle program: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/opinion/l21nasa.html

spacefire · Aug 22, 2005

I think personnel and management would answer this question better than an engineer. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

frodo1008 · Aug 22, 2005

he difference is rather simple. In the case of the shutdown for the Columbia accident, the lines are still kept open as the shuttle is presumed to fly again. Yes, this IS one of the reasons that the program still spends money, even though the shuttle itself is not flying. Whicg IS also why I personally would like to see NASA develop some guts, and fly the shuttle! The shuttle is going to fly to the relative safe harbor of the ISS anyway, so delays out to next March are somewhat unacceptable, at least to me. The other point would be a total shut down of the shuttle fop all time. Yes, at that point the production lines would be shut down also. Does this clear this up for you?

halman · Aug 22, 2005

vt_hokie, Have you considered teaching engineering in India? I would imagine that the pay would allow you to live pretty well in that economy. Closer to home, we all need to rally round the rockets, and write to each and every one of our Congressional delgation, reminding them that investment in technology is the only certain way to keep the United States from becoming a third world country. (According to one definition, we already are. We import cars and export food.) There is also an important spiritual exercise that we all can do, without bothering anybody, using a dictionary, or getting ourselves on 'Watch' lists. Visualize a base on the Moon. Visualize people living up there, working, playing, discovering. Visualization is a powerful element in prayer, meditation, and magic, and channels energy toward the attainment of what is visualized. Every time that you see the Moon, take a moment and imagine that there is a base there, with people living at it. You don't have to tell anyone, so no one will think that you are some kind of kook. (Then again...) If you don't mind being thought of as a kook, (people tend to leave you alone,) talk about space flight every chance you get. I don't mean lecturing the people on the bus, but there are many oppurtunities to educate and inspire people who are living for tonight's television. We believe in something which is not meant to do people harm, does not exclude people because of who they are, and offers more oppurtunity to improve the future than just about any thing which I can think of. Don't hide it, share it! Spread the energy! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

propforce · Aug 23, 2005

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />I have to ask something here. What have the production lines been doing since February 2003 and to March 2006? <hr /></blockquote> Key word "contract" which pays the company and workers to stay employed and keep the skill set and production capability up to date. The problem with the space industry suppliers in general, is that we don't make enough parts to warrant companies to make investment in the R&D without government subsidy. In cases where there is commercial market, the parts tend to get better and better, such that one has to pay supplier to keep an old design upto date in order to maintain configuration control for flight hardware <img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" />. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

propforce · Aug 23, 2005

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />I don't know how to get out of my current rut, aside from maybe pursuing an MBA and getting away from engineering. I had started work toward an MS degree in mechanical engineering at Columbia, but I had been doing it part time, and I gave up on that strategy for a number of reasons. But for the academic rigor and the amount of work involved, it hardly even seems worth it. <hr /></blockquote> Hey Vt_hokie, I am sorry to hear about the sad state of affair at Loral. But here is my question: why are you still there? The trouble with Loral was well known since 7 yrs. ago with Iridium. The stock went into the toilet 5 yrs ago. In the mean time, the space industry was undergoing a boom in the last 7 yrs with lots of jobs available everywhere. Where were you? If I get only a 4% raise, and the first raise ever in several years, I'd let the market place determine my worth and would not stay around (unless I am close to retirement age). I'd do this no matter the industry I work in. The time to move was 5 yrs ago, even not too late right now, why are you still hanging onto Loral? A few years ago, a common practice was the Loral guys (in San Jose) would come down to Boeing (previously Huges Space & Comm) for a 30% increase in salary, while the Loral guys hire Lockheed Missile & Space guys (also in San Jose) for a 30% salary increase, while Lockheed hire the Boeing satellite guys to northern California for a 30% salary increase. This way, everyone gets their 30% salary increase! The days of holding onto a job for rest of your life is over, even in the 'commercial' sector. Perhaps no one knows this better than aerospace workers, where we often joke that we're glorified migrant workers, going from company to company as major contracts change hands. The days of union and job security are gone. You'll need to manage your own career, as well as your re <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

propforce · Aug 23, 2005

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />These are turbulent times for the space industry. <hr /></blockquote> The space industry is doing well, except for NASA's human space flight program. The success of NASA is in the science & robotic exploration missions, e.g., JPL and GSFC. NASA human space flight centers (JSC, MSFC, etc.) need to take a lessons learned from JPL. The Chinese space industry is doing well, the Russians with Sea/Land launch and Soyuz. The India is advancing their launch capability as well. The Japan H-IIA is back on track. There's $15 BILLION/year budget with NASA. I can buy the whole country of Ukraine (who makes the Soyuz) with that kind of money !!! The problem is not the funding.. the problem is the allocation and management of resources.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

no_way · Aug 23, 2005

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />Key word "contract" which pays the company and workers to stay employed and keep the skill set and production capability up to date<hr /></blockquote> Which is another way of saying, they get paid for doing nothing ?

spacefire · Aug 23, 2005

The space industry is doing well, except for NASA's human space flight program. last time I checked, the number of commercial launches/year was at an all-time low. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

vt_hokie · Aug 23, 2005

"But here is my question: why are you still there? The trouble with Loral was well known since 7 yrs. ago with Iridium. The stock went into the toilet 5 yrs ago. In the mean time, the space industry was undergoing a boom in the last 7 yrs with lots of jobs available everywhere. Where were you?" Fair question. Actually, I only started there 5 years ago, so I guess I got in just in time for the collapse! By the way, do you mean Globalstar? That was Loral's version of Iridium, essentially. But, while there have been other jobs out there, I wouldn't say the job market has been particularly great these last few years. And, I guess I almost believed the lies told by upper management when they talked about their commitment to restore shareholder value. "If I get only a 4% raise, and the first raise ever in several years, I'd let the market place determine my worth and would not stay around (unless I am close to retirement age). I'd do this no matter the industry I work in." I shouldn't have said several years....maybe three. Nonetheless, yeah, you're correct. The problem is that I don't want another job doing the same thing, sitting in a cubicle in some other place where the only difference is the name on the building. I think I need a break from office life. And if I'm going to advance beyond grunt worker status, I probably do need to go back to school to complete an advanced degree. Also, moving is a major hassle, and it stinks having to move to a different region of the country if it means leaving friends or family and starting over in a place where you don't know anybody. "The time to move was 5 yrs ago, even not too late right now, why are you still hanging onto Loral?" Fear of the unknown, perhaps. But it's also that I want a new direction, not just another job doing the same thi

propforce · Aug 23, 2005

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />The space industry is doing well, except for NASA's human space flight program. last time I checked, the number of commercial launches/year was at an all-time low. <hr /></blockquote> Blame that on the economy, not NASA <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

propforce · Aug 23, 2005

Hey vt_hokie, Thanks for the reply. I appreciate your candor. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> By the way, do you mean Globalstar? That was Loral's version of Iridium, essentially. Yes. My bad. It was Globalstar. I had the 'insight' to buy Loral's stock at an unbelievalbe cheap price of $10 per share with my after-tax disposable money which, as you know, is now down to 5 cents a share after a 10:1 reverse split

But, while there have been other jobs out there, I wouldn't say the job market has been particularly great these last few years. Perhaps that's just my perception as well as here on the west coast. I know there's not many aerospace firms in the New York/ New Jersey area. And, I guess I almost believed the lies told by upper management when they talked about their commitment to restore shareholder value. OH yeah... learned that lesson well. BTW, 'shareholder value' does not necessary equate to 'employee value'. Actually, stock prices often go up whenever a company announce major laid-offs. ps- The 'handwriting' is on the wall whenever the management assure employees that all is well and jobs are secure. It's a signal to start looking !! The problem is that I don't want another job doing the same thing, sitting in a cubicle in some other place where the only difference is the name on the building. I think I need a break from office life. And if I'm going to advance beyond grunt worker status, I probably do need to go back to school to complete an advanced degree. Education is never a waste. However, it's my opinion that you don't need an advanced degree if you want to move beyond a grunt worker status. You also do not need to change industry. Actually stay within your field of expertise is a good <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

spacefire · Aug 23, 2005

Blame that on the economy, not NASA you're just disagreeing with what you posted earlier, that is, that the Space industry is doing wel. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

vt_hokie · Aug 23, 2005

Hahaha...yeah, well, I think I'll steer clear of oppressive Communist regimes if I can! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> I'd love to live near Boston. It's a cool city, and it feels more like a European city to me than many others in the United States. And while I'm still single, I need to be in a place with some life to it, and being able to meet women sure wouldn't hurt! But I don't think there's much in the way of aerospace up there...maybe Draper Labs and MIT Lincoln Labs, but I'm not that familiar with either (although I've been to the latter on business with Loral). Oh, and the Boston - Providence and Providence - Kingston stretches of Amtrak's Northeast Corridor are where the Acela Express reaches its max operational speed of 150 mph. Totally random obvservation, I know, but I'm a train fanatic, and I've gotta live near a place with high speed trains! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> That's another thing that makes Boston more like Europe! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> I suppose I could handle California though, if I were paid enough. I've enjoyed visiting Palo Alto while on business trips, as well as visiting San Francisco on vacation. I've been to LA as well, and parts of it are okay. I hear that San Diego is beautiful. (And hey, at least they've got the 90 mph Amtrak Surfliners. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> ) But man, when a modest home costs a million dollars, and just registering a car costs 500 bucks, I'd have to be well into six figures before I'd even consider it!

vt_hokie · Aug 23, 2005

Oh, believe me, I've spent plenty of time "trainspotting", as the Brits would say! Princeton Junction, NJ is one of my favorite locations. It's not quite as fast as Attleboro, but the Acelas still get up to 135 mph there (and other Amtrak trains 110 to 125 mph, depending on type of equipment). I love taking side trips into Princeton too....beautiful campus - almost as nice as Virginia Tech's! If they had an MBA program, I'd try to get accepted there! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> (Side note: isn't Norm Augustine, formerly head of Lockheed Martin, a professor there now?) The Acela is heavier than you might think, though. The "power cars", at 102 tons, are just as heavy as an AEM-7. Thanks to excessive U.S. crashworthiness requirements, the Acela is about 40% heavier than a French TGV. But until we have trains in space, I suppose I'm getting a bit off-topic! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> I will say this, though. Half a century ago, the United States was a leader in rail transportation. Now, we're not even a player, really, at least in the high tech, high speed arena. I hope we don't see the same thing happen to our leadership in aerospace.

propforce · Aug 24, 2005

Don't forget Washington D.C. beltway area as well. Almost every major company has an office there and lots of so-called 'consulting firms' (commonly known as 'beltway bandits'). This include Maryland and Virginia as well. If you like train, then it's an easy ride to NYC visiting friends and 'wimmins'. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> IIRC, Boston area has lots of defense electronic firms which is good only if you're a 'sparky'. But hey, all these electronic boxes need to hang on to a piece of structure somehow. Speaking of Princeton, there used to be a GE-Astro who makes good satellites, but then they were sold to Martin Marietta which was later sold to Lockheed, who took the business and shutdown the plant. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

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