Perhaps new solar cycle starting?

MeteorWayne · Dec 11, 2007

A very nice sunspot group is near the equator face on right now. See SOHO image Perhaps we have reached the nadir of period between cycles. MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 11, 2007

And here's an interesting SOHO solar cycle birthday page. It has now been 11 yesr since she began returning data. SOHO has a great page showing the sun through the cycle. Check it out here <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 17, 2007

Looks like Space.com might agree with me link , but not for the reason I said. "The sun's next cycle of increased activity might have begun last week, according to a NASA scientist. Solar activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle. During the peak, the last of which occurred in 2001 and 2002, sunspots are common and solar storms frequent. The storms, which pummel Earth with charged particles, can knock out satellites and occasionally disrupt radio and even power transmissions on the planet. The sun has been relatively quiet for many months. Now, a modest knot of magnetism, which appeared Dec. 11, might signal the long upward trend in activity. "This patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," said solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. "Solar minimum is upon us." The shift would mark the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Uncertain beginnings "New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," Hathaway explained in a NASA statement. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude. The shift is not certain, however. If it's really the start of a new cycle, there ought to be a sunspot associated with the magnetic knot, but there is none. In fact, Hathaway announced a similar possible beginning to Solar Cycle 24 back in August, 2006." My statement was based on the equatorial spot, which does not mark the start of the new cycle. Sorry for my confusion MW Latest Solar Cycle charts: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycl</safety_wrapper <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

michaelmozina · Dec 17, 2007

IMO, it's very difficult to know exactly when the new solar cycle will begin. It depends on the internal configuration of the magnetic field of the core, and how that field manifests itself at the surface. I would say that this is one of the largest regions of activity that I've seen in high energy wavelengths in quite some time. It "could" signal the beginning, but then it might just fade away again and fool us. Usually the times of greatest activity shows active regions in both the northern and southern hemispheres of the equator that begin to interact with one another. This current activity seems to be limited to only the southern hemisphere, so it's not clear to me if this is the beginning of a new cycle, or if it will ultimately fade away before interacting with anything in the northern hemisphere. I think it's a 50/50 bet either way. Somethings definitely up, but whether it stays up is anyone's guess. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> All sunspots (that I've seen anyway) involve heavy activity in the iron ion and x-ray wavelengths, but not every high energy event seen in x-ray or 195A SOHO images results in a sunspot. Usually the high energy activity has to be consistent and very substantial for sunspots to form. This region was very active, and it definitely formed a sunspot. In the past we only could use sunspot activity to gauge the solar minimum and solar maximum. Your notation of a sunspot "group" was right on target by the way, at least by older standards. Now that we have high energy views of the sun, we can see more of what's going on, but we still aren't exactly sure what brings on the solar cycle or what makes it end. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

michaelmozina · Dec 18, 2007

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Is_A_New_Solar_Cycle_Beginning_999.html <blockquote>In reply to:<hr />Looks like Space.com might agree with me link , but not for the reason I said. <hr /></blockquote> Evidently not for the reasons I said either. <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> It seems it wasn't even the active region near the sunspot that they were looking at (which is what I assumed), but rather the were looking at an active region in the northern hemisphere, up nearer the pole. They seem to be looking for a specific magnetic signature in the active region where the polarity of the front end of the active region is reversed from how the polarity is oriented during the quiet phase. Like you, I assumed that they were looking at the active sunspot area, but evidently that wasn't the case. There are some "butterfly" images of this polarity shift phenomenon that begins near the poles and work themselves toward the equator over time. Once they get near the equator, they begin to interact with one another as I mentioned earlier. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast15feb_1.htm <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 18, 2007

Exactly. That is also what I had misunderstood, which the article made clear. You learn (or relearn) something new every day, since I knew that, but had forgotten. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

michaelmozina · Dec 18, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />Exactly. That is also what I had misunderstood, which the article made clear. You learn (or relearn) something new every day, since I knew that, but had forgotten.<hr /></blockquote> It really stinks getting old, doesn't it? <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> I even offered an explanation of this "butterfly" phenomenon on my website. You'd think I would remember what they're looking for, but nooooooo....... More Ginkoba for me. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 22, 2007

a SOHO story on this with images. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

alokmohan · Dec 30, 2007

So it is not solar cycle.

michaelmozina · Dec 30, 2007

Well, it's a bit too early to tell perhaps. What this person is looking at is the electromagnetic orientation of high energy events near the poles in relationship to their orientation near the equator. He is correct that the last electromagnetic orientation near the pole was opposite of what we observe in events that are nearer the equator. Interestingly enough, that is in fact a valid "method" of defining the "beginning" of a solar cycle, even by my rather radical "EU" way of looking at things. It's really hard to tell that 'start' of something like the solar cycle, but in theory at least we should see EM disturbances increase over time (say over the period of a few months), but since the sun rotates over time, there are always going to be variations in 195A output from day to day. I would however have to agree that the "method" that is being used to mark the "beginning" of the solar cycle seems to be "valid". Perhaps we should require that two or three opposite EM polarizations have passed around the poles before we declare it to be "the beginning". It's a subtle change at best, and we should expect daily variations in any solar theory, but I would have to admit that the method that was cited seems as valid to me even with based on EU oriented theories. That seems like a good sign to me. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

alokmohan · Dec 31, 2007

We have to wait and see.

michaelmozina · Dec 31, 2007

The last active region that was nearest to the northern polar region was also aligned in the opposite direction from the active regions that are closer to the equator. In other words, there seems to be consistency in the observations this week compared to the last few weeks, suggesting that the "method" that is being used to mark the beginning of the cycle is valid, or at least consistent. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

docm · Dec 31, 2007

http://www.spaceweather.com/ <blockquote>In reply to:<hr />SOLAR ACTIVITY ALERT: Earlier today, around an hour past midnight UTC, something exploded just behind the sun's eastern limb. The blast unleashed a C8-class solar flare and hurled a bright CME into space. These events may signal the impending return of sunspot 978, which has spent the past two weeks transiting the far side of the sun. The sun's rotation should bring the active region into view later today or tomorrow allowing us to see what it is and evaluate its potential for more explosions. If you have a solar telescope, monitor the limb!<hr /></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

3488 · Dec 31, 2007

WOW, thanks docm, that is one hell of a CME. Considering the Sun is near the minimum part of the cycle, that seems very energentic. Jupiter is to the right. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> Happy New Year 2008. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

michaelmozina · Dec 31, 2007

That active region will be pointed our way in a week or so. Let's hope that we don't get slammed by one of those events. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> Based on the magnetic field alignments of the active regions, I would have to also conclude that this is indeed the start of an increase in surface activity. Note however that the surface rotates over a 27.3 day timeframe relative to the Earth and the active regions rotate as well, meaning some weeks will be eventful in our direction, and some weeks will still be rather boring for awhile. This week our side of the sun is relatively quiet, but the left side of the sun, the side rotating towards us, is much more active. FYI, I have proposed an an EU oriented explanation for this cyclical increase in surface activity for anyone interested in an EU oriented explanation of this phenomenon. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

3488 · Jan 8, 2008

Article on Spaceflightnow.com. Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

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