predicting theory

[robrob]

Right.<br /><br />So ages ago I, with help of those on here who can do maths, worked out that on average, the number of civilisations wiped out by nearby exploding stars in our known universe is about 31 a second.<br /><br />Therefore, using this, would it be possible to calculate a theoretical maximum lifespan for the Earth?

 

[Saiph]

Well...no.<br /><br />Why? Cause I'm pretty sure your original calculation is erroneous, or at least highly variable. We could have anywhere between one and several hundred thousand civilizations in our own galaxy for instance, according to the Drake equation.<br /><br />Throw in the fact that there are no stars close enough to destroy the earth in the event of a supernovae...and we're good to go.<br /><br />The sun will kill the earth in ~1-2 billion years as it slowly expands as it traverses it's main sequence period. When it balloons quickly out to a red giant in ~4 billion years...we'll definetly be dead. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font color="#c0c0c0"><br /></font></p><p align="center"><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">--------</font></em></font><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">--------</font></em></font><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">----</font></em></font><font color="#666699">SaiphMOD@gmail.com </font><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">-------------------</font></em></font></p><p><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">"This is my Timey Wimey Detector.  Goes "bing" when there's stuff.  It also fries eggs at 30 paces, wether you want it to or not actually.  I've learned to stay away from hens: It's not pretty when they blow" -- </font></em></font><font size="1" color="#999999">The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[robrob]

Well yeh it's all based on averages I just wondered if there was a mathematical way I could come up with a number. Just so I could say I've worked it out really. I kind of get bored easily.<br /><br />Is it really 1-2 billion? How old is the Universe meant to be?

 

[centsworth_II]

I would say that Earth Civilization's chances of being wiped out by a "dinasaur killer" asteroid or comet long before the sun bloats are very good. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[mooware]

Averages? Based on what numbers?. How did you arrive at these numbers?<br /><br />

 

[jatslo]

centsworth_II said, "<font color="yellow">I would say that Earth Civilization's chances of being wiped out by a "<font face="verdana" color="#99FFFF">dinosaur</font> killer" asteroid or comet long before the sun bloats are very good.</font>"<br /><br />Jatslo asked, "<font face="verdana" color="#99FFFF">Is there a way that we can prevent a asteroid from inflicting that same suffering that unbiased fate inflicted on the dinosaurs? Is humanity destined to doom?</font>"<br />

 

[dlee0708]

<i>Throw in the fact that there are no stars close enough to destroy the earth in the event of a supernovae...and we're good to go. </i><br /><br />From this SpaceCom Link I would have to say at best we don't know if a supernovae could destroy earth.<br />

 

[Saiph]

right, forgot about GRB's. A standard supernovae will hurt earth from out to ~50 ly. There aren't any stars prone to supernovae anytime soon within that radius (that I know of).<br /><br />A GRB is a focused jet (we believe)...so the range is quite a bit further.<br /><br />I should have known about this, as I've sat through paper presentations on simulations of possible GRB effects in the earth's ozone (a "what if" simulation). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font color="#c0c0c0"><br /></font></p><p align="center"><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">--------</font></em></font><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">--------</font></em></font><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">----</font></em></font><font color="#666699">SaiphMOD@gmail.com </font><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">-------------------</font></em></font></p><p><font color="#999999"><em><font size="1">"This is my Timey Wimey Detector.  Goes "bing" when there's stuff.  It also fries eggs at 30 paces, wether you want it to or not actually.  I've learned to stay away from hens: It's not pretty when they blow" -- </font></em></font><font size="1" color="#999999">The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>