Re: So thats it...no more humans in space
quatermass":1906v54b said:
Seriously, Space Cadets, it's time to stop taking the Happy Pills and see what's happening. When Constellation / Ares are cancelled, there will be nothing - repeat, nothing - to replace it. There's nothing even being seriously proposed. Direct, Delta, Taurus... this is all pure speculation and you can bet the farm on the fact that none of these paper exercises will ever get to the point of cutting metal. Obama is not a fan of space. Go back and see his pre-election statements. He's getting his wish, and can blame it all on the "economic crisis". You guys are running a trillion dollar deficit - how difficult do you think it will be for him to justify cutting spending on a space programme - especially one that just puts us back into LEO?
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Last time I looked, Chinese, Indians and Russians were human too - they seem to be able to put together a coherent plan; what do they know that the US does not?
Amazing.
All the none political reports (and many of the blogs in the know) indicate that Ares will be dead, but that NASA will get an INCREASE in money. That money will go into pushing private space. According to these reports, the money will be used to help private space get off the ground. That does mean SpaceX, and Tarus. It also seems to be for Bigelow so that we (i.e. the west) can have multiple locations for vehicles to head to with these private vehicles. BA's units are being designed not just for Space, but also for landing on the Moon and Mars.
So, where else will the money go towards? According to the CREDIBLE reports, it will be used to help private space get the Direct or some other version off the ground. According to the Direct ppl and a number of NASA engineers, this can be done in under 3 years. The reason is that it is the same plan that NASA had back under reagan. It was pushed through a number of planning groups and only needed funding from reagan to go. reagan choose to not do that. While that was part of a long string of bad choices, the work was laid down for this. We have the production lines in place for all of this. Supposedly all of the current companies involved with the shuttle are backing this. It will likely take 2 years before the first test launch of the smaller single stage version. Then in one more year to put it into full launch. That means in 3 years, we will have the ability to launch 70 MT of cargo AND humans into LEO. That is about 2.5 x what is currently available. According to the early estimates, it will cost 130 million for for that launch (not including the RD costs). Then within another 2 years after that, would be the second stage. That version is not close to being set, but it will put up over 100MT.
That will mean that America will have multiple launchers of varying sizes, with possibly multiple space station destinations. And yet, you say that we do not have a plan?
Let me point out that the above is all supposition. But, then again, so was your statement. You had NOTHING to base it on, except a bunch of negative blogs and Faux News.Yet, mine is based on groups that are known for being credible, while yours comes from groups that are known for FUDings. In the end, both of our thoughts could be very far from reality. That is why many of us have been suggesting that ppl should not be too wild (either positive or negative) in their posts.
Now, as to your final statement.
Let me point out that Russia is still working with what is mostly early 70's tech. They have not changed. They have thrown up MANY ideas to see what will stick and to try and get EU or America to pay. America already paid for most of their ISS efforts, and we are in worst financial situation then they are. IOW, we are not likely to pay for that. You say that Russia has a plan? Not even close to there. You say that ESA or UK has a plan? Again not even close. Look at how ESA has fought to get the Galileo system up there. And THAT is an easy one. The reason is that all the real RD was done by America for them.
India is slowly coming along, as it Brazil. As one who is married to an India Indian, I enjoy watching India make strides with their space program. I doubt that they will actually launch a human in 6 years, but they are getting there.
Japan is also making strides with their space program. Again because of my personal connections to Japan, I enjoy watching that as well.
And I have to say that I am disgusted by many of the remarks here against Japan, South Korea, India, etc. These are countries that are either considered Western (UK, EU, SK, Japan), or at least neutral towards the west (India, mostly Russia, Brazil).
China is the exception. China has shown over and over that they view all of the west as enemies. I do not mean CHinese ppl. I mean Chinese gov. They encourage theft of commercial and high-tech information. As one that has been in a position to see it, I can attest that it aggressive and designed to do us a LOT OF HARM. This is not just commercial theft. They are seeking systematically a military edge over the west. I would not care if they opened up about what they are up and it became apparent that they were doing defensive measure. That is how both USSR and the west were. BUT, they are not. Most of their systems are designed for an offense. And that is just the ones that we know about. In addition, their attitude on the Commercial front is obviously designed to kill the west. They have legal obligations per their agreement with Clinton and WTO that they refuse to honor. They were to free their money and have not done so. They were to drop their trade barriers and quit dumping, quit subsidizing, and allow exports of resources. Instead, they have stepped it up with the opposite actions. They have fixed their money to the dollar and then allowed the dollar to plummet. Likewise, they DID drop their trade barriers for 2 years, then raised many many more to much higher degrees. They subsidize their energy and even their products directly. They are caught dumping on the western markets constantly. In the DOD/Intel world, they have stepped up spying all over like never before. Even USSR did not have such an extensive spy network into here. Even their space program (funded and controlled by their military) is based on stolen tech from Russia, ESA, AND America.
That is the reason why I do not want to see China into any of these space programs. It is not about being against CHinese ppl, but about a gov that is obviously gearing up for a hot war with the west. The more items that they can obtain (steal, buy such as magnequench) from here, the faster that war will come.
Even now, CHina's space program is NOT designed for exploration, but for for their military. That is the difference with the west.
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