Dnepr rocket to launch Genesis 1

Swampcat · Jul 11, 2006

I thought this launch deserved its own thread in M&L. From Alan Boyle's Cosmic Log: <center>INFLATABLE SPACE DREAMS <blockquote>It's taken months longer than he hoped, but real-estate billionaire Robert Bigelow might just see his first orbital spacecraft take flight at last on Wednesday, courtesy of a converted Russian intercontinental ballistic missile. If Bigelow Aerospace's Genesis 1 inflatable space module lifts off successfully, the test mission could mark a significant step toward an era of hotels and even sports complexes in space./p></blockquote></center> There are some links toward the end of this article that lead to some interesting reading and some drawings of SpaceShipTwo and White Knight 2. Not sure if the drawings were actually supplied by Scaled Composites or Virgin Galactic, but interesting nonetheless. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

docm · Jul 14, 2006

Genesis I is up, inflated and the solar arrays are deployed. Bigelow's updates page; http://www.bigelowaerospace.com/multiverse/news.php If this works and can survive extended UV exposure, impacts and folding damage (if any) he may have a real winner on his hands. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

qso1 · Jul 14, 2006

Excellent news. As one who keeps a skeptical eye on commercial space developments, its nice to see this kind of news for a change. Like Rutan, Bigelow has now got my attention as a serious space entrepeneur. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

Swampcat · Jul 14, 2006

"Like Rutan, Bigelow has now got my attention as a serious space entrepeneur." The Dnepr has done its job admirably and from what I'm hearing, this mission is going better than expected. What is even better is that I've seen very little negativism concerning Bigelow's efforts. There's still concern about whether or not Genesis 1 can survive in the long run, but from a proof of concept point of view, having it in orbit, inflated and communicating with all systems go seems to have gone a long way toward dampening criticism of private space endeavours in general and inflatable space structures in particular. Success will tend to do that <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />. Bigelow Aerospace still has some hurdles to clear -- two major ones being life support and transportation to and from any station he may put together -- but it is clear that their engineers have done a great job preparing the spacecraft for this inaugural mission. The big question I have -- if Genesis 1 continues to perform well, will this affect the timeline toward a full-scale BA-330 launch? There are currently issues concerning a launch vehicle for the BA-330, but perhaps Mr. Bigelow's projected plans can be shortened. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

nyarlathotep · Jul 14, 2006

The big question I have -- if Genesis 1 continues to perform well, will this affect the timeline toward a full-scale BA-330 launch? There are currently issues concerning a launch vehicle for the BA-330, but perhaps Mr. Bigelow's projected plans can be shortened. At 20-23T the BA-330 should fit quite snugly on the DIV-H. The real question is whether there is going to be a man capable launcher other than the Soyuz to service it. Preferably one launched from a lower inclination. If one doesn't turn up on the market, Bigelow is going to push his plans out by a few years.

Swampcat · Jul 14, 2006

"The real question is whether there is going to be a man capable launcher other than the Soyuz to service it...If one doesn't turn up on the market, Bigelow is going to push his plans out by a few years." You're likely right. The Soyuz is probably not going to be used to service and crew BA-330's unless Mr. Bigelow can come up with a lot more money than he has. Let's hope his America's Space Prize bears fruit or something else comes along that can do the job. Otherwise, this might be another good idea that's just a bit too far ahead of its time. That would be a shame. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

docm · Jul 14, 2006

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />You're likely right. The Soyuz is probably not going to be used to service and crew BA-330's unless Mr. Bigelow can come up with a lot more money than he has. <hr /></blockquote> Bigelow has committed $500 million to this effort <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

Boris_Badenov · Jul 14, 2006

You're likely right. The Soyuz is probably not going to be used to service and crew BA-330's unless Mr. Bigelow can come up with a lot more money than he has. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bigelow has committed $500 million to this effort & only spent $75 million of it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div> </div>

barrykirk · Jul 14, 2006

Well this is excellent news.

j05h · Jul 14, 2006

> The Soyuz is probably not going to be used to service and crew BA-330's unless Mr. Bigelow can come up with a lot more money than he has. That doesn't make any kind of sense in light of the known price-per-seat for Soyuz and the fact that Soyuz capsules are a common sight in Bigelow Aerospace graphics. They are obviously expecting their customers to build spacecraft serviced by Soyuz. Again, remember, Bigelow doesn't want to be a space hotelier, he wants to make the modules for others to be hoteliers. He is very explicit about selling modules to all capable buyers. Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">We need a first generation of pioneers. </div> </div>

Swampcat · Jul 15, 2006

"Bigelow has committed $500 million to this effort & only spent $75 million of it." According to Mr. Bigelow, that $500M was planned to get him through 2015 and the launching of a full scale, operational Nautilus BA330. He's got $425M left to spend over the next 9 years or so. How much does a Soyuz flight cost and how many of them can he afford? I suppose, if he manages to start making some revenues, it would be possible, but it still seems like a stretch. Of course, with the expansion of the Soyuz manufacturing line and the possibility of crewed flights from Guiana perhaps the price will come down. We'll see. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

Swampcat · Jul 15, 2006

"That doesn't make any kind of sense in light of the known price-per-seat for Soyuz..." JO5H, you may be right, but what about that cost per seat? Do you know what it will be? NASA is apparently getting a sweetheart deal and will pay around $12M per seat. Will Mr. Bigelow get seats for that low? I don't think either of us knows the answer to that. Maybe the price will come down and I will drop my concerns about the Soyuz cost, but I would think Mr. Bigelow still hopes to foster development of a domestic carrier through his America's Space Prize challenge. The fact of the matter is that Mr. Bigelow does not intend to get into the space transportation business. If the market will bear the Soyuz than that's what it will be. "...Soyuz capsules are a common sight in Bigelow Aerospace graphics." Considering that the Soyuz is the only current possibility then those graphics make sense. "Again, remember, Bigelow doesn't want to be a space hotelier, he wants to make the modules for others to be hoteliers. He is very explicit about selling modules to all capable buyers." Yes, I'm well aware of Mr. Bigelow's intentions, despite the media misrepresentation. I suppose the misunderstanding derives from the fact that Mr. Bigelow is a hotelier in addition to being a space entrepreneur, but he has indeed been very explicit about his desire to sell or lease modules. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

Boris_Badenov · Jul 15, 2006

Without Bigelow actually saying what he intends, whatever we say is pure speculation. My personal speculation is that the first few to go up & be occupied will be cooperative efforts by universities & businesses that want to research pharmaceutical & electronics technologies. The first people to go will be devoted to this effort. Only after this has been done & a profit has been turned will any Station be used as a destination for an orbital vacation. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div> </div>

Swampcat · Jul 15, 2006

"Without Bigelow actually saying what he intends, whatever we say is pure speculation." That's the thing...he has said what he intends. Granted, he could always change his mind, but at the moment his plans are to sell or lease modules to businesses for whatever purposes the businesses wish to use them for. Pretty much what you said. An orbital hotel is just one possibility, but Mr. Bigelow has been quoted as saying that a space hotel is not part of the business plan for Bigelow Aerospace. Of course, he operates Budget Suites of America, so speculation on the possibility of him opening a space hotel is understandable, but he was a construction contractor before doing the hotelier thing, so I think he's looking at it from the standpoint of constructing the buildings that will be used in space. He has speculated on many other things, including a cislunar cruise ship. Will he do it? I don't know, but it's an interesting idea for speculation. Note: While doing some googling, I found this sentence in a two year-old page of the Las Vegas Mercury, an online newspaper -- I quote, "One of Bigelow's stated goals is the development of the first space hotel." The article got a little confused over the names of the subscale modules so I wouldn't want to trust it (coupled with my inate mistrust of journalism <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />), but OTOH, I would not gloss over speculation that Mr. Bigelow could simply put on his BSA hat and have them purchase a couple of modules and actually create a space hotel. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

daniko · Jul 16, 2006

I've remembered of a planned mission by SpaceAdventures: "Space Adventures is working on a plan for an all-commercial Soyuz flight to the ISS. Private missions would allow participants greater control over what they do in space and how long they stay. The cost of two seats is about $50 million. The third seat would be filled by a professional Soyuz pilot." So that's about the costs of a Soyuz transport. You also must consider the posibilities that the Klipper project of RSC Energia gives fruit in the nearest future. The seats there are more and cheaper also.

Swampcat · Jul 17, 2006

"You also must consider the posibilities that the Klipper project of RSC Energia gives fruit in the nearest future. The seats there are more and cheaper also." We won't know about the cheaper part for quite some time, but you're probably right. At least that appears to be what they're hoping for. My original statement about the unlikelihood of using Soyuz was based on what Mr. Bigelow has said about wanting a private American company to provide transportation services to his modules. He is encouraging this through his America's Space Prize. Considering his good relations with the Russians, certainly Soyuz is a possibility, especially if nothing else is available. We'll have to wait and see on Kliper as well. I also expect him to look toward Russia for a propulsion module. One of those could take a considerable chunk of his budget. Let's hope he can start making some revenues on all of this before his money runs out. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

josh_simonson · Jul 17, 2006

Since 2015 is the supposed de-orbit date of ISS, it seems quite likely that he feels his modules will be used for the ISS' replacement or to refurbish the ISS as it's modules wear out. It's also quite possible that his prototype BA-330 will be part of the ISS to replace the hab module that NASA wanted but couldn't afford. He might even donate it to the ISS - 'the first try is always free'. In either scenario soyuz could well be visiting it.

bwhite · Jul 17, 2006

At 20-23T the BA-330 should fit quite snugly on the DIV-H. Not to mention Proton, at a fraction of the price but at a higher inclination. Tourists may prefer a higher inclination, more scenery to see. I also have read that Bigelow has also been chatting with the Chinese. I wonder how much they would charge for a newer Long March.

Swampcat · Jul 18, 2006

"It's also quite possible that his prototype BA-330 will be part of the ISS to replace the hab module that NASA wanted but couldn't afford." josh, anything is possible. Well, almost anything <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />. Check out this from Hobbyspace. (I'd love to read the full story, but I don't have a subcription to AW&ST.) I don't know about BA-330s as ISS replacement modules, but it seems that NASA has an interest in what Mr. Bigelow is doing. Did you know that a NASA experiment is currently onboard Genesis 1? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

Dnepr rocket to launch Genesis 1

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